Regardless of all of the Labour ballot leads over the previous 9 months or so the betting markets have persistently made the Tories the favourites to win most seats on the subsequent normal election.
The betting chart above exhibits how perceptions have modified and the way now for the very first time LAB is rated as having a greater probability than the Tories of profitable most seats.
It ought to be famous right here that the Tories with the brand new boundaries will discover it rather a lot simpler to get extra seats for his or her votes than LAB. It’s because the nationwide vote share for Starmer’s social gathering contains many seats the place the social gathering has very large majorities while Tory vote is unfold extra evenly.
So it’s doable that with a double-digit nationwide vote lead Labour won’t even get a majority and even be high social gathering when it comes to seats.
I discover it very onerous to see how Labour can get a majority and the very best they’ll hope for is for the Tories to fail to attain one. In such a context Starmer is extra more likely to find yourself as PM than Truss.
Mike Smithson
