Wings Over Scotland | It’s the identical outdated tune

Half a decade aside, nearly to the day.

So what are we anticipating?

We thought we’d take a fast snap ballot only for enjoyable. These are the choices we predict are a minimum of remotely believable for subsequent Tuesday’s announcement:

OPTION 1: BACK DOWN THE HILL, EVERYONE

Mainly nothing. Sturgeon probably makes one other “formal” Part 30 request, says that is Westminster’s “final likelihood”, waffles on about how refusal can be much more democratically unsustainable than it’s been till now, offers Boris Johnson the summer time recess to contemplate it, however declines to specify what she’ll do if it’s not granted.

This will get her to September whereas she prays for some form of exterior occasion, like a change of Prime Minister, which might let her restart the clock like she did in 2017, failing which we’re again to the place we at the moment are. The barest minimal.

OPTION 2: PHONY WAR

Sturgeon bluffs. She proclaims a particular date in October 2023 for indyref2, realizing that she has no doable technique to enact it – the Electoral Fee is not going to co-operate and councils will flat-out refuse to conduct the vote, citing Part 29 of the Scotland Act and daring the Scottish Authorities to take them to courtroom to attempt to drive them on very questionable authorized grounds.

This course of will drag on effectively into 2023, rendering the supposed date not possible, and crucially Sturgeon will once more decline to specify what she’ll do if the plan fails.

This will get her many of the technique to the 2024 UK basic election at which the SNP will demand yet one more “mandate” whereas claiming that they tried to hold out those they got in 2016, 2019 and 2021.

OPTION 3: A CLEAR ULTIMATUM

Very similar to Choice 2, besides Sturgeon states unequivocally that if her “wildcat” indyref is foiled she’ll contest the following UK basic election (presently two and a half years away) as a plebiscite, or instantly dissolve the Scottish Parliament and conduct a plebiscite Holyrood election. The one significant transfer.

(And in addition, after all, the motion Wings and others have been calling for for a number of years. The SNP have furiously rejected it, saying that no such plan may very well be deployed till polling was repeatedly above 60%, COVID was over, the financial system had recovered and many others and many others, none of which has occurred.)

OPTION 4: NONE OF THE ABOVE

Some astonishing Hail Mary that no one has predicted.

What do you reckon, people?

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