Professor Paul Davies Met Workplace Fellow (Meteorology) and Chief Meteorologist stated; “Climate patterns for October look cell with a westerly or south westerly air circulation more likely to deliver Atlantic climate methods throughout the UK at instances, leading to intervals of moist, and probably windy climate, a better proportion of which is able to have an effect on the north and west. Temperatures are predicted to be above common in October.
“November and December look extra settled with excessive strain more likely to dominate our climate. Precise climate circumstances can be dictated by the place the excessive strain settles over the Atlantic and the UK, however we’re more likely to see a better incidence of northerly airflows, stopping gentle, moist air flowing to the UK from the Atlantic Ocean and rising the potential for chilly snaps with some menace of snow and ice, primarily in northern areas.
“The most certainly state of affairs as we head into 2023 is for the danger of high-pressure to lower, and a return to extra unsettled circumstances with moist, windy, and gentle spells potential. Nonetheless, there’s nonetheless a danger we might see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. If this occurs it might probably result in a chilly spell for the UK and northern Europe, though the possibilities of a really chilly winter, corresponding to 2009/10, are nonetheless low this winter.”
Professor Davies added; “You will need to bear-in-mind that lengthy vary outlooks are pushed by world climate patterns and even when these influences, for instance, counsel a higher-than-usual probability of a light winter this may not rule out having chilly spells, or perhaps a chilly winter. These eventualities would simply be much less probably based mostly on the knowledge accessible on the time the forecast is made. It’s subsequently additionally vital to look at our common month-to-month updates to the long-range outlook.
“Lengthy vary outlooks are not like climate forecasts which cowl the subsequent few days. The science on this space is on the chopping fringe of meteorology and the Met Workplace is without doubt one of the main lights on this analysis space. Even with ‘good’ prediction methods and ‘good’ meteorological observations, the elemental chaotic nature of the ambiance will nonetheless restrict the ability of those predictions.
“Though, the science, as but doesn’t enable for particular element on, for instance, the variety of nights of frost, rain or snow over the approaching months or when particularly extreme climate could happen, long-range forecasts can present helpful info on the potential circumstances averaged over the UK for a season as a complete. These predictions give a sign of how probably sure sorts of circumstances, which will impression transport, power, well being and so on., can be; permitting planners in these sectors to organize accordingly. As we undergo the winter months, we are going to clearly be capable of give extra element of any potential winter hazards and can concern up to date forecasts and warnings as and when wanted.”
Winter Climate Drivers
One of many foremost influences on European winter climate is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a optimistic section corresponds to windy, gentle and moist circumstances, whereas a unfavorable section is said to nonetheless, chilly and dry climate, which implies we are able to acquire some indication of how probably a windy winter is. One other world issue that would affect the UK this winter is La Nina, a cooling of the ocean within the tropical Pacific. This promotes the event of excessive strain within the Atlantic in late autumn and early winter which may result in the potential for chilly snaps for the UK. Conversely, sea-surface temperatures across the UK are above common for the time of 12 months, which means above common land temperatures are additionally potential.
You possibly can test the most recent climate forecast on our web site, by following us on Twitter and Fb, in addition to on our cell app which is on the market for iPhone from the App retailer and for Android from the Google Play retailer. Our lengthy vary outlooks are up to date month-to-month. Hold observe of present climate warnings on the climate warning web page
