Monday, February 6, 2023
HomeWales WeatherWeekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #539

Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #539


The Week That Was: 2023-02-04 (February 4, 2023)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking

Quote of the Week: “I believe we stay in an unscientific age through which virtually all of the buffeting of communications and tv–phrases, books, and so forth–are unscientific. Consequently, there’s a appreciable quantity of mental tyranny within the identify of science.”Richard Feynman – “What’s Science?” (1966) .

Variety of the Week: 25%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking (SEPP)

Scope: The problems mentioned this week will embrace the next: Key factors raised by Richard Lindzen, Sloan Professor emeritus at MIT in Atmospheric Science. Lindzen is finest identified for his work on the dynamics of the center ambiance, atmospheric tides, and ozone photochemistry. He served as a lead writer within the “Bodily Local weather Processes and Feedbacks,” chapter of the Third Evaluation Report (AR3 or TAR, 2001) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC). Lindzen is essential of the method and that though the primary report accommodates some wonderful work, the additional one goes from the precise report, the extra distorted the knowledge turns into.

Writing in Local weather And so forth. Planning Engineer Russell Schussler discusses the failure of wind and photo voltaic tasks in Germany and elsewhere to supply dependable, reasonably priced electrical energy. Schussler asks the query all of the promoters and their politicians are avoiding: When the nice experiment fails, who pays the invoice? It’s irresponsible that many authorities entities have dedicated to Internet Zero and not using a well-tested demonstration undertaking exhibiting the prices of era and the storage wanted.

Paul Homewood brings up that in 2017 the local weather modelers on the UK Met Workplace simulated hundreds of winter seasons for the UK. For during the last 3.5 million years, Earth’s local weather has been in an Ice Age with glaciation at each poles. In these hundreds of simulations, what number of included extreme glaciation overlaying the UK?

Arithmetic is the language of science, however it will probably mislead and deceive. Then we now have statistics. Henry Miller and S. Stanley Younger talk about “How Scientific Is ‘Peer-Reviewed’ Science?” in drugs. There feedback apply to the trouble to ban stoves utilizing pure fuel for gasoline.

The annual “Power Outlook” by BP is extremely revered. A number of commentators famous that in its newest report, it seems that BP is backing down from its acknowledged objective of “past petroleum.”

The Biden Administration has declared a local weather emergency arising from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It has promoted heavy subsidization of options to fossil fuels, corresponding to wind and photo voltaic and electrical autos. But, regulators within the administration look like proscribing entry to the minerals wanted by these various types of electrical energy era and for batteries.

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Correct of Measurement: The interview of Lindzen by Jordan Peterson begins with Lindzen discussing how deceptive the declare of 97% settlement amongst local weather scientists is. There may be 100% settlement CO2 is a greenhouse fuel and including it to the ambiance is growing warming. The query is how a lot? Lindzen believes that the proof reveals it should improve by a bit of and claiming that it’s an existential menace, a menace to the existence of humanity, is absurd. The problem is local weather sensitivity (the influence on temperatures from a doubling of CO2) and there may be little or no proof that the local weather is extremely delicate to growing atmospheric carbon dioxide at the moment.

The dialogue goes into the great enlargement of college administrations since World Battle II with the rise in authorities grants and the commentary that researchers waste 30% or extra of their time writing proposals for grants which can be largely meaningless. For instance, Lindzen states that the Quarterly Journal of the Meteorological Society of the UK as soon as had a rule {that a} reviewer may reject a paper for under two causes: 1) an overt mathematical error; or 2) lack of originality.

Right now, many “scientific” journals reject papers for failure to evolve to authorities coverage or failure to agree with the political “consensus.” Lindzen discusses how the editors of journals that had printed two of Lindzen’s latest papers had been fired for doing so.

That is all a part of an effort to eliminate the vitality sector. First it was world cooling from aerosols produced by combustion, then it was acid rain, now it’s harmful world warming brought on by CO2, the one chemical that customers of fossil fuels can not keep away from. But, it’s on the coronary heart of business prosperity, and abnormal folks want to stay higher lives. For instance, when India grew to become impartial it had a inhabitants of about 200 million and wanted to import meals. Now it has a inhabitants of about 1.2 billion and is a internet meals exporter. Many of the world shouldn’t be so silly to cease emissions of CO2, which can impoverish societies.

What world local weather modelers seize upon is optimistic feedbacks: That’s how a small warming will likely be amplified right into a better warming. This assumption is opposite to Le Chatelier’s Precept: (“A change in one of many variables that describe a system at equilibrium produces a shift within the place of the equilibrium that counteracts the impact of this alteration.” Though it was first utilized to chemical options, it will also be utilized to programs.)

Lindzen asserts that to handle the issues introduced by the modelers, one should look at the feedbacks. (Which the Jan 21 TWTW did when discussing the brand new guide by Tim Palmer.) There are a lot of deficiencies in IPCC reviews; you will need to focus not on minor deficiencies however attend to the central deficiency.

To Lindzen that is that local weather is managed by two areas: the tropics (30 S to 30 N) and the extratropics.

The rotation of the Earth, the Coriolis impact, and different fluid dynamics end in nice variations within the results altering greenhouse gases and different causes of local weather change. The tropics keep comparatively fixed, within the extratropics modifications are important. Inside the tropics, the greenhouse impact is important, however comparatively fixed.

However what happens between the tropics and the extratropics has little to do with the greenhouse impact. A number of causes – temperature variations trigger dramatic modifications in climate; prevailing winds change with latitude. Claiming growing CO2 will trigger a big distinction is fake.

Lindzen emphasizes what Al Gore will get incorrect. His timing is off by a mean of at the very least 500 years. What causes a decline in temperatures when CO2 is excessive? (Till we are able to reply that, there is no such thing as a cause to imagine {that a} interval of extreme glaciation is not going to happen sooner or later.) For this fascinating interview, see hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Who Will Pay? Planning Engineer Russell Schussler discusses the failure of wind and photo voltaic tasks in Germany and elsewhere to supply dependable, reasonably priced electrical energy. He writes:

“When electrical utilities or electrical charges are used to perform any public good, any price improve falls disproportionately upon these with lesser incomes and assets. Energy prices are likely to perform as a extremely regressive tax, placing the burden on those that wrestle essentially the most and having the least influence on the rich. As a training engineer I typically nervous what influence our tasks would have on the much less lucky. Now I worry that poor struggling grandmothers will find yourself paying for the ‘inexperienced’ desires of the financially properly off.

After I have a look at the envisioned inexperienced transition, I fear about exorbitant prices lower than I used to. I’m undecided anymore what I’ve a adequate understanding across the talents of countries to incur big quantities of prices and debt for the ‘public good.’ It’s past my comprehension at instances. I see so many billions spent on issues that appear much less consequential than the grid. So typically I believe, why not spend that type of huge cash on varied assorted vitality tasks. Perhaps we are able to dump big sums of public cash into longshot tasks and hope for the most effective. However I can’t assist questioning who will finally pay for it, and hoping that poor and least ready amongst us don’t find yourself financing ill-considered pursuits.

After discussing what has modified in his pondering over time and argues towards burdening the poor with big vitality payments, he closes by discussing “Poor Oma in Germany”

“I’m afraid the ‘inexperienced transition’ has already executed nice hurt to many poor German grandmothers. The German Energiewende, has been described because the ‘transition by Germany to a low carbon, environmentally sound, dependable, and reasonably priced vitality provide’. Many noticed Germany as a showcase for what was potential. In earlier years it has been touted as a spectacular success.  Grid considerations related to a ‘inexperienced’ transition had been typically dismissed by merely declaring ‘What about Germany’. In 2017 I coauthored this text entitled The Fable of the German Renewable Power Miracle. In 2019 after spending over $150 billion in Euros, Federal Courtroom of Auditors President Kay Schuller famous that the expenditures ‘are in excessive disproportion to the outcomes.’ Though numerous wind and photo voltaic had been added, since then the outcomes of the German transition seem to me an increasing number of disappointing with time.

“Whereas Germany did add numerous wind and photo voltaic, their efforts haven’t offered sustainable advantages and they’re now are stymied by their very own elevated use of coal and oil. They modified lots, nevertheless it was not foundational change. Germany’s previous vitality insurance policies have created worldwide repercussions. However it’s unhappy sufficient simply to notice the impacts upon the German inhabitants. Power poverty has been a significant downside for a lot of, and it’s increasing to the place you now see headlines proclaiming that Power poverty more and more affecting Germanys center class. In Germany and different elements of Europe we’re seeing growing issues of ‘Warmth or Eat’ [Links given]

“It’s a troublesome scenario. Who pays for that costly failure? How ought to Germany stability what industrial prospects pay, versus what residents pay? These are difficult painful weighty selections. If energy is just too costly for companies, the economic system could also be wrecked for all. However forcing the fee on these much less well-off is merciless. It’s significantly better to not go there to such an excessive and cut back the probability of such issues. Perhaps I used to be right to imagine that you simply simply can’t print up cash to run expensive experiments on the grid. Prices might matter in spite of everything. Let’s ensure that we don’t drive our grandmothers towards destroy by unworkable expertise primarily based on overly hopeful desires which ignore the place the cash will come from in the event that they fail.”

When President Johnson dedicated a whole lot of hundreds of floor troops into Vietnam and not using a strategic plan, tens of hundreds within the armed forces paid dearly. Washington is committing the nation to an vitality transition and not using a strategic plan or perhaps a confirmed demonstration undertaking on what is required. Definitely, the politicians gained’t pay, so who will? See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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“Who Wants Precise Information?” Paul Homewood introduced consideration to a 2017 press launch by the Met Workplace which acknowledged:

“1 in 3 likelihood of a brand new month-to-month rainfall report in at the very least one area every winter.

“In the previous few years a number of rainfall occasions have triggered widespread flooding within the UK. In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK resulting in report rainfall and flooding in lots of areas together with the southeast. December 2015 was comparable, and Storm Desmond hit the north-west inflicting widespread flooding and storm harm.

“By their very nature excessive occasions are uncommon and a novel analysis technique was wanted to quantify the chance of maximum rainfall inside the present local weather.

“Professor Adam Scaife, who leads this space of analysis on the Met Workplace stated “The brand new Met Workplace supercomputer was used to simulate hundreds of potential winters, a few of them rather more excessive than we’ve but witnessed. This gave many extra excessive occasions than have occurred in the actual world, serving to us work out how extreme issues may get.”

“Analyzing these simulated occasions confirmed there’s a 7% threat of report month-to-month rainfall in south east England in any given winter. When different areas of England and Wales are additionally thought-about this will increase to a 34% likelihood.

“Dr Vikki Thompson, lead writer of the report, stated “Our laptop simulations offered 100 instances extra knowledge than is offered from noticed information. Our evaluation confirmed that these occasions may occur at any time and it’s possible we are going to see report month-to-month rainfall in one in every of our UK areas within the subsequent few years.”

“The authors have named this novel analysis technique the UNSEEN* technique to emphasise that this evaluation anticipates potential occasions which have simply not but been seen.  It was additionally used as a part of the latest UK Authorities Nationwide Flood Resilience Assessment (NFRR)+ when the Met Workplace was requested to estimate the potential probability and severity of record-breaking rainfall over the UK for the following 10 years.”

[* – UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles [Boldface added]

In response to Tim Palmer a pioneer within the Ensemble technique of modeling, all fashions are predicting an increase in temperatures. But, the dominant situation of local weather for the previous 3.5 million years is an Ice Age with prolonged 100,000-year durations of glaciation and brief, 10,000 years or so, heat durations. In response to USGS, “Glaciers prolonged over a lot of Europe over the past ice age” together with Scotland and Wales and most of England and Eire. See hyperlinks underneath Mannequin Points and https://www.usgs.gov/media/pictures/glaciers-extended-over-much-europe-during-last-ice-age

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Ridiculous Arithmetic: In Lectures on Gravitation, Richard Feynman wrote:

“If there’s something very barely incorrect in our definition of the theories, then the total mathematical rigor might convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.”

One space through which ridiculous conclusions incessantly seem and are taken critically is within the utility of statistical strategies. Writing for the American Council on Science and Well being (ACSH) “How Scientific Is ‘Peer-Reviewed’ Science?” Henry Miller, and S. Stanley Younger expose a number of the tips used together with A number of Testing and A number of Modeling and ‘p-hacking” the place a random discovering has “statistical significance.” They level out that:

“This can be a important downside for the scientific group as a result of if printed articles are unreliable, we don’t actually know what we predict we all know.

“The trigger for all this dishonest is solely greed — the will of the analysis group to faucet into the large reservoirs of analysis funds, the stress on scientists to publish or perish, and publishers of scientific journals looking for to maximise earnings.”

Defective statistics are used to assist requires banning pure fuel home equipment corresponding to stoves, water heaters, furnaces, and many others. For instance, one statistical trick is Inhabitants Attribution Fraction (PAF) for childhood bronchial asthma. One other ACSH article states:

“The 2 largest PAFs are the presence of a pet, and atopy, a predisposition of allergic reactions, within the mother and father.”

For scientific integrity these have to be individually recognized and eradicated from the research however usually are not. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, EPA and different Regulators on the March, and Washington’s Management of Power

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Past Petroleum? The BP “Power Outlook, 2023” pays typical lip service to the fad for renewables. For instance, underneath “Core Beliefs” it states:

“This yr’s Outlook can be utilized to establish points of the vitality transition which can be frequent throughout the primary situations. These traits assist form core beliefs about how the vitality system might evolve over the following 30 years.

  1. The carbon funds is working out. Regardless of the marked improve in authorities ambitions, CO2 emissions have elevated yearly because the Paris COP in 2015 (bar 2020) …
  • Authorities assist for the vitality transition has elevated in a variety of international locations, together with the passing of the Inflation Discount Act within the US. However the scale of the decarbonization problem suggests better assist is required globally, together with insurance policies to facilitate faster allowing and approval of low-carbon vitality and infrastructure.
  • The disruption to world vitality provides and related vitality shortages brought on by the Russia-Ukraine warfare will increase the significance connected to addressing all three parts of the vitality trilemma: safety, affordability, and sustainability.
  • The warfare has long-lasting results on the worldwide vitality system. The heightened give attention to vitality safety will increase demand for domestically produced renewables and different non-fossil fuels, serving to to speed up the vitality transition.
  • The construction of vitality demand modifications, with the significance of fossil fuels declining, changed by a rising share of renewable vitality and by growing electrification. The transition to a low-carbon world requires a variety of different vitality sources and applied sciences, together with low-carbon hydrogen, trendy bioenergy, and carbon seize, use and storage.”

It then goes into a number of the extra fanciful concepts corresponding to blue and inexperienced hydrogen (as if H2 has a coloration), carbon seize and storage, carbon dioxide removing, and many others. All designed to appease the greens who want to destroy the fossil gasoline trade, which offered the premise for contemporary prosperity. The basic downside is that there is no such thing as a demonstration undertaking that options aside from nuclear and hydropower can ship reasonably priced, dependable vitality, significantly for transportation. Commentators corresponding to Paul Homewood and Robert Bradley assume that BP shouldn’t be giving up on fossil fuels. It might be all an phantasm till political leaders achieve some extent of frequent sense that most people appears to have. See hyperlinks underneath Questioning the Orthodoxy.

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Preserve It In The Floor: An editorial within the Wall Road Journal implies that regardless of large subsidies to various vitality, significantly wind and photo voltaic, the administration doesn’t intend to allow the US manufacture of the mandatory tools for wind, photo voltaic and obligatory storage. The editorial begins:

“The Biden Administration is closely subsidizing electrical autos, however on the similar time it’s blocking mineral tasks wanted to provide them. One other instance of this head-scratching contradiction got here Thursday when Inside Secretary Deb Haaland walled off a lot of Minnesota’s Superior Nationwide Forest from mining.

“Minnesota’s Duluth Complicated has one of many world’s largest undeveloped mineral deposits, together with copper, nickel and cobalt which can be wanted in huge portions for EV batteries. Ms. Haaland is assuring the deposit stays undeveloped by signing an order withdrawing greater than 225,000 acres within the Superior Nationwide Forest from mining for 20 years.

“The order says the withdrawal is important to guard ‘fragile and very important social and pure assets’ in addition to the ‘conventional cultural values’ and ‘subsistence-based existence’ of Native American tribes. However mining needn’t compromise these different pursuits, and particular person mining tasks should endure rigorous federal environmental critiques.

“Ms. Haaland is dancing to the tune of inexperienced lobbyists who need to preserve minerals within the floor as they do fossil fuels. She’s making their job simpler by pre-emptively vetoing tasks. Now federal companies gained’t should conduct laborious environmental critiques for proposed mines, and greens gained’t should sue to dam them. How politically environment friendly.

“Different mining tasks in Minnesota, Arizona, Nevada, and Alaska have been caught in allowing purgatory and the courts. Ms. Haaland’s Superior Nationwide Forest withdrawal units a precedent that might expedite the method of blocking different mining tasks. Name it anti-permitting reform.”

After discussing the big subsidies being given to processing amenities that want supplies to be mined, the editorial concludes:

“The truth is that if minerals aren’t mined within the U.S., they are going to be extracted in international locations with far much less stringent environmental and labor requirements. Not that this appears to hassle the White Home. The State Division this month pledged to assist construct EV battery provide chains within the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. The DRC produces greater than 70% of the world’s cobalt, and Zambia is the world’s sixth-largest copper producer.

“Wouldn’t it’s higher for American staff and the setting to mine these minerals within the U.S.? At the least the Administration is constant on one level: It desires to maintain all U.S. pure assets that might be strategic vitality property within the floor.”

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Past Groupthink: The 15th Local weather Change Convention by The Heartland Institute will likely be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, on the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It is going to characteristic over 40 audio system, together with members of the SEPP Board of Administrators, Willie Quickly and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will tackle the query: “Is Local weather Science Scientific?” See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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Variety of the Week: 25%. In response to the USGS the final glacial most occurred about 20,000 years in the past and coated 25% of the Earth’s land space,

“Starting about 15,000 years in the past, continental glaciers retreated, and sea stage started to rise. Sea stage reached its present top about 8,000 years in the past and has fluctuated ever since.”

TWTW provides that sea ranges have risen very slowly over previous 8,000 years. See

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-does-present-glacier-extent-and-sea-level-compare-extent-glaciers-and-global-sea-level#:~:textual content=Thepercent20Lastpercent20Glacialpercent20Maximumpercent20(LGM)%20occurredpercent20aboutpercent2020percent2C000percent20yearspercent20ago,25percent25percent20ofpercent20Earth’spercent20landpercent20area

Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?

Photo voltaic vitality

By Steve Hurley, Explaining Science, Mar 9, 2019

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