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Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #524 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2022-10-22 (October 22, 2022)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission

Quote of the Week: “And it’s of paramount significance, as a way to make progress, that we acknowledge this ignorance and this doubt. As a result of we’ve got doubt, we then suggest trying in new concepts. The speed of improvement of science is just not the speed at which you make observations alone however, way more necessary, the speed at which you create new issues to check.” Richard Feynman, The That means of It All

Variety of the Week: Down 36.5%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW will deal with the next developments:

Roy Spencer in contrast the most recent 50-year summer time floor temperatures traits for the 48 contiguous states of the US with modeled traits from 36 CMIP-6 (Coupled Mannequin Intercomparison Mission) local weather fashions. They’re all present an excessive amount of warming, and the common is sort of two occasions precise traits. The interval covers 1973 to 2022.

Physicist Ralph Alexander produced a short report for the International Warming Coverage Basis (GWPF). Paul Homewood describes it:

“A brand new paper from the International Warming Coverage Basis reveals how sober factual info in official local weather studies is steadily distorted in shifting from the unique textual content (written by scientists) to the Abstract for Policymakers (written by political hacks), to the official press releases (written by public relations officers), after which to the media protection (written by journalists).”

Judith Curry presents and discusses a brand new e book by physicist Tim Palmer. He’s a famous local weather modeler who may be very influential with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC). The e book is mentioned as introduced by Curry. TWTW is awaiting the e book to overview it from the attitude of bodily science, significantly as introduced by Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman, particularly in The That means of It All.

Econometrician and Statistician Ross McKitrick and statistician Stephen McIntyre uncovered the famous “hockey-stick” as inferior statistics and poor science. The hockey-stick was featured within the IPCC Third Evaluation Report (AR3 (TAR), 2001). As mentioned by Alexander and others, it’s again within the IPCC Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6, 2021). Final week, TWTW mentioned an interview of Willie Quickly by Tom Nelson. This week, Nelson posted an interview with Ross McKitrick on “Massive issues with paleoclimate knowledge and land temperature information.” A calmly edited transcript of a part of the interview is posted by Ron Clutz, which is used on this TWTW.

A number of readers commented on the assertion in final week’s TWTW about Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer being too busy to struggle with the censorship by editors of western “science” journals. Different examples are introduced.

Transient feedback are made on the power insurance policies of western governments, which could be described as insurance policies for financial destruction and limitless subsidies.

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Overestimating the Floor? Local weather modelers declare they regulate their International Local weather Fashions (Common Circulation Fashions) to surface-air temperatures, about 2 meters (six and one-half toes) above floor stage. On his weblog, Roy Spencer summarized his analysis:

“I’ll get proper to the outcomes, that are fairly easy.

“As seen within the accompanying plot [not shown here], 50-year (1973-2022) summer time (June/July/August) temperature traits for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 local weather mannequin experiments common practically twice the warming price as noticed by the NOAA local weather division dataset.

The 36 fashions are these catalogued on the KNMI Local weather Explorer web site, utilizing Tas (floor air temperature), one member per mannequin, for the SSP2-4.5 radiative forcing state of affairs. (The web site says there are 40 fashions, however I discovered that 4 of the fashions have double entries). The floor temperature observations come from NOAA/NCEI. [SSP2-4.5 is Shared Socio-economic Pathway #2 with 4.5 W/m2 total forcing.]

The official NOAA observations produce a 50-year summer time temperature pattern of +0.26 C/decade for the U.S., whereas the mannequin traits vary from +0.28 to +0.71 C/decade.

As a examine on the observations, I took the 18 UTC each day measurements from 497 ASOS and AWOS stations within the International Hourly Built-in Floor Database (largely unbiased from the official homogenized NOAA knowledge) and computed related traits for every station individually. I then took the median of all reported traits from inside every of the 48 states, and did a 48-state area-weighted temperature pattern from these 48 median values, after which I additionally acquired +0.26 C/decade. (Observe that this could possibly be an overestimate if rising city warmth island results have spuriously influenced traits over the past 50 years, and I’ve not made any adjustment for that).

The significance of this discovering needs to be apparent: On condition that U.S. power coverage relies upon upon the predictions from these fashions, their tendency to provide an excessive amount of warming (and sure additionally warming-associated local weather change) needs to be factored into power coverage planning. I doubt that it’s, given the local weather change exaggerations routinely promoted by setting teams, anti-oil advocates, the media, politicians, and most authorities businesses. [Boldface in original]

Spencer’s analysis confirms the official NOAA surface-air temperature traits. But, the local weather modelers produce traits which might be virtually double that. As Spencer states in different posts, the 43-year document of atmospheric temperature traits is plus 0.13° C per decade. Though removed from an ideal measurement of the greenhouse impact, that is the place the greenhouse impact happens and is extra unlikely to be biased by different human exercise. Thus, the US floor traits of +0.26° C per decade are twice these of the environment (the higher estimate of the consequences of greenhouse gases).

The traits from local weather fashions are twice these of the floor, thus roughly 4 occasions atmospheric traits. And we’re to consider that this warming of 4 occasions the warming of the environment is produced by atmospheric greenhouse gases? See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Exaggeration Amplified: In “Chinese language Whispers: How local weather science will get distorted in translation” retired physicist Ralph Alexander credit the concept to New York College’s Steve Koonin. Alexander writes:

“Koonin concludes that a lot of the disconnect arises from miscommunication, analogous to the kids’s recreation of Chinese language Whispers, as it’s recognized within the UK, or its North American counterpart, Phone. He factors out that there are ample alternatives for local weather info to be misinterpreted and even twisted as it’s successively distilled down in going from the analysis literature to scientific evaluation studies, to summaries of the evaluation studies, to press releases and finally to the media. Media protection is, after all, the general public’s main supply of details about local weather science.

“The aim of this paper is to indicate how Koonin’s assertion about distorted transmission of the local weather message is basically appropriate. To do that, I’ll look at intimately two examples drawn from the voluminous local weather science literature: the worldwide temperature document over the past 2000 years, and marine heatwaves. I’ll hint the distortion of the underlying science because it progresses by the next levels, specializing in the 2021 Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC):

“• Evaluation Report → Abstract for Policymakers (SPM)

• SPM → Press launch

• Press launch → Media and environmental protection”

Alexander traces the amplification by two examples. One is the return of the infamous hockey-stick. As mentioned in earlier TWTWs, Steven McIntire demonstrated this means of taking a number of bits of proxy knowledge and forming them into a complete, with none established standardization interval to indicate they measure the identical factor. That is like mixing glue and oak sawdust to make boards for a desk and claiming the desk is strong oak. McIntyre known as the problem PAGES 2K, PAGES being an acronym for the group primarily based in Geneva, Switzerland, which compiled it and 2K in that it covers about 2,000 years, irregularly.

As mentioned in earlier TWTWs, in a sequence of posts, McIntyre exhibits how deceitful the method is. As Alexander discusses, the brand new hockey-stick doesn’t seem within the scientific evaluation of IPCC AR6. Thus, it was manufactured for the Abstract for Policymakers, the political model. In discussing the position of the UN Secretary-Common in press releases, Alexander writes:

“The second IPCC press launch, on the UN’s web site, takes the Phone recreation to a completely new stage, with UN Secretary-Common António Guterres warning that:

At the moment’s IPCC Working Group 1 Report is a code pink for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the proof is irrefutable. [Boldface added]

“The wording of this broadly reported assertion might have been chosen for max political impression, however has little connection to the science reported in AR6. The Secretary-Common additionally repeats the IPCC’s assertion above about ‘unprecedented’ adjustments.”

Thus, the UN Secretary-Common has change into little greater than a carnival barker, or an announcer for a circus whose acts are poor. Additionally Alexander discusses examples of Marine Heatwaves earlier than concluding:

“These two examples present simply how massive a gulf can exist between the science introduced within the IPCC’s local weather evaluation studies and the way the general public perceives it, due to garbled transmission because the scientific message progresses from evaluation studies to their summaries to press releases after which to the media. This development, as Steven Koonin appropriately discerns, supplies ample alternatives for the message to be distorted, both willfully or not. The hockey stick, which reappears within the AR6 SPM, and which has been trumpeted within the press, clearly illustrates the accuracy of Koonin’s conjecture. By excising the MWP and LIA from the worldwide temperature document, the evaluation report’s pretty neutral stance on the existence of each turns into warped to the purpose the place the SPM can declare trendy warming to be unprecedented. The IPCC’s dialogue of marine heatwaves additionally backs up Koonin’s Chinese language Whispers or Phone analogy, exhibiting how the favored notion that marine heatwaves at the moment are twice as widespread as they had been simply 40 years in the past is fallacious.”

See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, TWTWs from Aug 14 to Nov 6, 2021, and a number of posts in https://climateaudit.org/ from August 11 to November 2, 2021.

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From a Local weather Modeler’s Perspective: On her weblog, Judith Curry opinions the e book “The Primacy of Doubt” by Tim Palmer, who:

“…is a Royal Society Analysis Professor within the division of physics on the College of Oxford. He pioneered the event of operational ensemble climate and local weather forecasting. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the U.S. Nationwide Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics’ Dirac Gold Medal.”

Curry begins her overview:

“This can be a fantastically written e book: eloquent whereas on the similar time approachable, spiked with anecdotes and occasional self-deprecating humor.  Some quotes from the Introduction, that give a taste of the e book, together with the model of writing.

“’I will probably be elevating the notion of uncertainty, or doubt, to a standing it isn’t often given: not as an “Oh, I suppose we’d higher do a danger evaluation” afterthought, however as a matter of primal significance and focus. There are two causes for doing this. First, there may be the sensible purpose that we’re liable to make awful selections if we base them on predictions with unreliable estimates of uncertainty. However simply as necessary, a minimum of for me as a scientist, we might be able to perceive higher the best way programs work by specializing in the methods through which they’re or can change into unsure.”

“’In brief, the scope of this e book is sort of distinctive. On the one hand we cowl the loftiest questions that philosophy has ever addressed and try and reply them in novel methods. On the opposite we’ll describe sensible strategies which have remodeled the best way we go about predicting how our world will evolve over the approaching days, years and a long time forward. Some readers, I hope, will probably be exhilarated by the dialogue of long-standing conceptual issues like free will, consciousness and the puzzling nature of quantum physics. Others could also be thrilled to see the science of chaos utilized for the good thing about society (and among the poorest elements of society specifically). For but others, studying this e book might assist them perceive themselves higher. Not least they could come to comprehend that a few of our obvious shortcomings will not be indicators of irrationality or failure, however manifestations of our distinctive potential to deal with the big uncertainties of life. There may be, I hope, one thing for everybody.’”

Earlier than discussing a overview in Scientific American, not mentioned right here, Curry concludes her overview with:

“The extra fascinating a part of the Chapter [Chapter 6 on Climate Change] addresses the query within the chapter subtitle: “Disaster or Simply Lukewarm?” Palmer addresses how we must always view local weather change from a perspective that’s according to the “primacy of doubt,” treading fastidiously across the “retailers of doubt” meme. Either side of the argument are reviewed, that are known as the “maximalist” and “minimalist” positions.  In Chapter 6 he concludes:

“’Let’s summarise. Taking a selected place—minimalist, maximalist or certainly any particular level in between—is solely inconsistent with the science. The important thing message of this chapter is that one’s perspective to local weather change, prefer to climate prediction, needs to be framed when it comes to danger: Is the chance of undesirable adjustments to local weather excessive sufficient to warrant taking precautionary motion now?’

“Palmer takes on this query extra straight in Chapter 10 Selections! Selections!  Palmer introduces the idea of a Statistical Life (which, when expressed when it comes to GDP per capita) could be utilized to each developed and growing nation inhabitants.  His conclusion is that it’s overwhelmingly worthwhile to take motion now to scale back the chance of a 4 diploma “hell on earth” hotter world at an assumed 30% chance.

“Laborious to disagree with that conclusion associated to 4C warming, however the satan is within the assumption of 30% chance of 4 C warming.  With RCP8.5 more and more being thought to be implausible, and with the IPCC AR6 placing the higher probably sure of equilibrium local weather sensitivity at 4C, the possibilities of 4C warming at the moment are typically thought to be fairly small.

“One thing right here for each the maximalists and minimalists to search out unsatisfactory.”

After discussing the place in Scientific American, Curry concludes the essay:

“JC suggestion to readers:  Don’t waste your time studying this e book if all you’re on the lookout for is affirmation of your predilection for (or in opposition to) pressing reductions of fossil gasoline emissions.   Learn this e book when you have an mental curiosity about physics, chaos, uncertainty and their functions throughout the sciences.  This exceptional e book will certainly fulfill and stimulate your curiosity.  Additional, such understanding will result in higher understanding of how we predict and make selections.  Most refreshingly for a e book that’s a minimum of partly within the local weather house, this e book does NOT try to inform us what to suppose or which selections to make.”

As said above, TWTW plans to overview the e book from the attitude of Richard Feynman’s essays on bodily science and report again. See hyperlink underneath Defending the Orthodoxy.

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Not Roasting? The press makes use of the poor science within the IPCC studies, significantly the Abstract for Policymakers and the carnival barkers of the UN, to dream up horror tales of utmost warming primarily based on what “scientists say.” Within the transcript offered by Ron Clutz, Ross McKitrick states:

“Folks want to know that for the twentieth century as a complete there’s temperature knowledge for lower than 50 p.c of the Earth’s floor. And quite a lot of stuff is simply being stuffed in with assumptions or modeling work, so it’s actually the output of fashions. And so, as you return in time again to the Twenties as an illustration, right here in Southern Ontario we’ve got nice temperature information again to the Twenties. Right here in Guelph, we’ve got temperature knowledge that goes again to the late 1800s.

“One of many first assignments I’ve my college students do in my environmental economics programs is simply to take a number of areas in Ontario which have greater than 100 Years of temperature knowledge and plot the information for common each day highs again 100 years or extra. That at all times surprises them as a result of they only don’t see what they’re anticipating to see when it comes to an upward pattern. There’s a visual pattern as much as the Thirties or so. After which after that it’s type of up and down flat.

“Summertime temperatures particularly, have gone down, they’ve gone up, however haven’t actually modified a lot for the reason that Thirties.”

McKitrick explains that since about 1960 changes to floor temperature traits have lowered earlier temperature traits and improve latest temperature traits

“Once you take a look at the post-1960 U.S document the changes are as massive because the warming itself.”

Later, McKitrick discusses a core difficulty:

“The burden of proof right here is on the individuals making the changes. For a very long time, they’d refer again to a paper that was finished within the Nineteen Eighties for the Division of power by Tom Wigley because the scientific foundation of the changes. Ultimately I acquired a maintain of that doc (as a result of it’s arduous to search out). It turned out it was actually simply quite a lot of: Okay we predict this document right here moved round 1925, they moved the station from right here to there, so we’re gonna make just a little few adjustments right here and we’ll bump this stretch of the info arrange by this quantity. And so it wasn’t like an in depth scientific methodology that you possibly can topic to some testing and validation.”

McKitrick offers proof that most individuals are ignoring the false claims of the IPCC and its promoters. They aren’t selecting power poverty “to avoid wasting the world.” McKitrick demonstrates the good improve in wealth, life expectancy, and inhabitants which have come from fossil gasoline use. [As shown elsewhere in TWTW, China and South Asia are not going along with the altered “science.”] The transcript closes with:

“It was the event of commercial civilization, a internet profit to the world, and the proof is that the locations the place they didn’t expertise that improvement are doing the whole lot they will to expertise it.

“And all of the supposed harms that individuals discuss, getting again to excessive climate which we talked about originally: The place are individuals in america shifting to? They’re all shifting to the acute climate areas, to the Florida coast and California coast and abandoning the areas just like the Midwest which have the 4 seasons however not precisely topic to tornadoes and hurricanes. As quickly as they will retire, they go away these locations and go to the place they they’ll both have warmth waves within the desert or droughts in California or hurricanes on the Florida coast. And that’s the place they need to retire to. After which after they get there, they will change into local weather activists and protest greenhouse gases.” See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Censorship Is Actual: Some TWTW readers expressed skepticism over final week’s assertion: Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer are too busy growing an appropriate speculation on the formation and dissipation of clouds that they don’t have time to struggle with journal editors. The assertion of “too busy” is concept, however the censorship is actual. In his interview, mentioned in final week’s TWTW, Willie Quickly mentioned the censorship and the way it was tough to publish any papers questioning the official line after the discredited “hockey-stick” was featured in IPCC’s Abstract for Policymakers in (AR3, 2001).

John Christy needed to search publication in a journal revealed by the Korean Meteorological Society, Richard Lindzen revealed within the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences additionally by the Korean Meteorological Society. These are peer-reviewed journals largely ignored by the IPCC and US journals.

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Path to Nowhere: Writing on the power coverage of New York, columnist Holman Jenkins sums up western power folly. Partly, he writes:

“The newest report from New York state’s grid operator is a grasp class in the whole lot fallacious with the Western world’s strategy to local weather change.

“That’s: the whole lot fallacious with an strategy that consists of throwing cash at inexperienced enterprise pursuits in defiance of any sensible consideration. In case you suppose one thing else is happening, reminiscent of abating local weather change, suppose once more.

“To fulfill a legislated purpose of emissions-free electrical energy by 2040, New York will want as much as 45 gigawatts of what it delicately calls DEFRs, or dispatchable emissions-free assets. Not solely is that greater than the state’s complete present producing capability of 37 gigawatts, these DEFRs, that are carbon-free like wind and photo voltaic but not interruptible like wind and photo voltaic, don’t exist and haven’t any prospect of current within the subsequent decade. Beginning very a lot ahead of 2040, New York’s actual alternative will probably be Third World electrical energy reliability vs. paying fossil-fuel operators massive charges to maintain their crops up and operating in a extremely inefficient part-time trend.

“Many concerned within the state’s power ‘transition’ would possibly query whether or not purging the final 10% or 5% of fossil fuels from the system is well worth the exorbitant value. Don’t count on anybody to confess the larger drawback: The transition gained’t probably do a lot to scale back international emissions.

“That is the good unmentionable. When New Yorkers use much less coal, oil or gasoline due to environmental mandates, the market value transmits the profit to different international customers, who then use extra. Much more unspeakable is the corollary: Emission-spewing actions merely relocate from one a part of the world to a different. China’s emissions progress, from half the U.S.’s to virtually 300% of the U.S.’s in 30 years, is partly the product of a transplant of emissions from the U.S. and Europe

“If pressed, Biden officers will privately revert to gobbledygook about carbon taxes that seem immaculately with out anybody having to advocate them. The media fill the hole with wishful considering and Soviet econometrics, complicated inputs with outputs. Sure, world-wide funding in renewables prior to now two years has exceeded funding in fossil fuels. Supposedly this proves fossil fuels are on their means out. No, it proves fossil fuels are a greater deal, consuming much less funding to fulfill their share of the world’s rising energy wants.” [Boldface added]

A long time of subsidies for politically favored industries that may fail with out them is just not the trail for financial progress, solely destruction. See Article # 1, Issues within the Orthodoxy, and Change in US Administrations.

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Variety of the Week: Down 36.5%. In line with the US Power Info, Petroleum & Different Liquids web site on Weekly US Ending Shares of Crude Oil in SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), on January 22, 2021, the shares had been 638,086,000 barrels. On October 14, 2022, the shares had been 405,135,000 barrels, the bottom since June 1, 1984, when the reserve was nonetheless increasing. The decline is 36.5%, the best ever; with no conflict, no embargo or no actual disaster, besides Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which doesn’t threaten US petroleum manufacturing or restrict US petroleum use. See https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

Science: Is the Solar Rising?

Winter Gatekeeper Speculation: New help for the impact of photo voltaic exercise on decrease atmospheric circulation

By Javier Vinós, Local weather, And so forth. Oct 20, 2022

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Obtain with no cost:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Local weather-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Quantity-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About International Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

International Sea-Stage Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Could 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

50-12 months U.S. Summer time Temperature Traits: ALL 36 Local weather Fashions Are Too Heat

By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022

“As seen within the accompanying plot, 50-year (1973-2022) summer time (June/July/August) temperature traits for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 local weather mannequin experiments common practically twice the warming price as noticed by the NOAA local weather division dataset.”

McKitrick: Reckoning Coming for Local weather Alarmists

By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 20, 2022

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