The Week That Was: 2022-10-22 (October 22, 2022)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission
Quote of the Week: “And it’s of paramount significance, as a way to make progress, that we acknowledge this ignorance and this doubt. As a result of we’ve got doubt, we then suggest trying in new concepts. The speed of improvement of science is just not the speed at which you make observations alone however, way more necessary, the speed at which you create new issues to check.” — Richard Feynman, The That means of It All
Variety of the Week: Down 36.5%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will deal with the next developments:
Roy Spencer in contrast the most recent 50-year summer time floor temperatures traits for the 48 contiguous states of the US with modeled traits from 36 CMIP-6 (Coupled Mannequin Intercomparison Mission) local weather fashions. They’re all present an excessive amount of warming, and the common is sort of two occasions precise traits. The interval covers 1973 to 2022.
Physicist Ralph Alexander produced a short report for the International Warming Coverage Basis (GWPF). Paul Homewood describes it:
“A brand new paper from the International Warming Coverage Basis reveals how sober factual info in official local weather studies is steadily distorted in shifting from the unique textual content (written by scientists) to the Abstract for Policymakers (written by political hacks), to the official press releases (written by public relations officers), after which to the media protection (written by journalists).”
Judith Curry presents and discusses a brand new e book by physicist Tim Palmer. He’s a famous local weather modeler who may be very influential with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC). The e book is mentioned as introduced by Curry. TWTW is awaiting the e book to overview it from the attitude of bodily science, significantly as introduced by Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman, particularly in The That means of It All.
Econometrician and Statistician Ross McKitrick and statistician Stephen McIntyre uncovered the famous “hockey-stick” as inferior statistics and poor science. The hockey-stick was featured within the IPCC Third Evaluation Report (AR3 (TAR), 2001). As mentioned by Alexander and others, it’s again within the IPCC Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6, 2021). Final week, TWTW mentioned an interview of Willie Quickly by Tom Nelson. This week, Nelson posted an interview with Ross McKitrick on “Massive issues with paleoclimate knowledge and land temperature information.” A calmly edited transcript of a part of the interview is posted by Ron Clutz, which is used on this TWTW.
A number of readers commented on the assertion in final week’s TWTW about Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer being too busy to struggle with the censorship by editors of western “science” journals. Different examples are introduced.
Transient feedback are made on the power insurance policies of western governments, which could be described as insurance policies for financial destruction and limitless subsidies.
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Overestimating the Floor? Local weather modelers declare they regulate their International Local weather Fashions (Common Circulation Fashions) to surface-air temperatures, about 2 meters (six and one-half toes) above floor stage. On his weblog, Roy Spencer summarized his analysis:
“I’ll get proper to the outcomes, that are fairly easy.
“As seen within the accompanying plot [not shown here], 50-year (1973-2022) summer time (June/July/August) temperature traits for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 local weather mannequin experiments common practically twice the warming price as noticed by the NOAA local weather division dataset.
The 36 fashions are these catalogued on the KNMI Local weather Explorer web site, utilizing Tas (floor air temperature), one member per mannequin, for the SSP2-4.5 radiative forcing state of affairs. (The web site says there are 40 fashions, however I discovered that 4 of the fashions have double entries). The floor temperature observations come from NOAA/NCEI. [SSP2-4.5 is Shared Socio-economic Pathway #2 with 4.5 W/m2 total forcing.]
The official NOAA observations produce a 50-year summer time temperature pattern of +0.26 C/decade for the U.S., whereas the mannequin traits vary from +0.28 to +0.71 C/decade.
As a examine on the observations, I took the 18 UTC each day measurements from 497 ASOS and AWOS stations within the International Hourly Built-in Floor Database (largely unbiased from the official homogenized NOAA knowledge) and computed related traits for every station individually. I then took the median of all reported traits from inside every of the 48 states, and did a 48-state area-weighted temperature pattern from these 48 median values, after which I additionally acquired +0.26 C/decade. (Observe that this could possibly be an overestimate if rising city warmth island results have spuriously influenced traits over the past 50 years, and I’ve not made any adjustment for that).
The significance of this discovering needs to be apparent: On condition that U.S. power coverage relies upon upon the predictions from these fashions, their tendency to provide an excessive amount of warming (and sure additionally warming-associated local weather change) needs to be factored into power coverage planning. I doubt that it’s, given the local weather change exaggerations routinely promoted by setting teams, anti-oil advocates, the media, politicians, and most authorities businesses. [Boldface in original]
Spencer’s analysis confirms the official NOAA surface-air temperature traits. But, the local weather modelers produce traits which might be virtually double that. As Spencer states in different posts, the 43-year document of atmospheric temperature traits is plus 0.13° C per decade. Though removed from an ideal measurement of the greenhouse impact, that is the place the greenhouse impact happens and is extra unlikely to be biased by different human exercise. Thus, the US floor traits of +0.26° C per decade are twice these of the environment (the higher estimate of the consequences of greenhouse gases).
The traits from local weather fashions are twice these of the floor, thus roughly 4 occasions atmospheric traits. And we’re to consider that this warming of 4 occasions the warming of the environment is produced by atmospheric greenhouse gases? See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Exaggeration Amplified: In “Chinese language Whispers: How local weather science will get distorted in translation” retired physicist Ralph Alexander credit the concept to New York College’s Steve Koonin. Alexander writes:
“Koonin concludes that a lot of the disconnect arises from miscommunication, analogous to the kids’s recreation of Chinese language Whispers, as it’s recognized within the UK, or its North American counterpart, Phone. He factors out that there are ample alternatives for local weather info to be misinterpreted and even twisted as it’s successively distilled down in going from the analysis literature to scientific evaluation studies, to summaries of the evaluation studies, to press releases and finally to the media. Media protection is, after all, the general public’s main supply of details about local weather science.
“The aim of this paper is to indicate how Koonin’s assertion about distorted transmission of the local weather message is basically appropriate. To do that, I’ll look at intimately two examples drawn from the voluminous local weather science literature: the worldwide temperature document over the past 2000 years, and marine heatwaves. I’ll hint the distortion of the underlying science because it progresses by the next levels, specializing in the 2021 Sixth Evaluation Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC):
“• Evaluation Report → Abstract for Policymakers (SPM)
• SPM → Press launch
• Press launch → Media and environmental protection”
Alexander traces the amplification by two examples. One is the return of the infamous hockey-stick. As mentioned in earlier TWTWs, Steven McIntire demonstrated this means of taking a number of bits of proxy knowledge and forming them into a complete, with none established standardization interval to indicate they measure the identical factor. That is like mixing glue and oak sawdust to make boards for a desk and claiming the desk is strong oak. McIntyre known as the problem PAGES 2K, PAGES being an acronym for the group primarily based in Geneva, Switzerland, which compiled it and 2K in that it covers about 2,000 years, irregularly.
As mentioned in earlier TWTWs, in a sequence of posts, McIntyre exhibits how deceitful the method is. As Alexander discusses, the brand new hockey-stick doesn’t seem within the scientific evaluation of IPCC AR6. Thus, it was manufactured for the Abstract for Policymakers, the political model. In discussing the position of the UN Secretary-Common in press releases, Alexander writes:
“The second IPCC press launch, on the UN’s web site, takes the Phone recreation to a completely new stage, with UN Secretary-Common António Guterres warning that:
At the moment’s IPCC Working Group 1 Report is a code pink for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the proof is irrefutable. [Boldface added]
“The wording of this broadly reported assertion might have been chosen for max political impression, however has little connection to the science reported in AR6. The Secretary-Common additionally repeats the IPCC’s assertion above about ‘unprecedented’ adjustments.”
Thus, the UN Secretary-Common has change into little greater than a carnival barker, or an announcer for a circus whose acts are poor. Additionally Alexander discusses examples of Marine Heatwaves earlier than concluding:
“These two examples present simply how massive a gulf can exist between the science introduced within the IPCC’s local weather evaluation studies and the way the general public perceives it, due to garbled transmission because the scientific message progresses from evaluation studies to their summaries to press releases after which to the media. This development, as Steven Koonin appropriately discerns, supplies ample alternatives for the message to be distorted, both willfully or not. The hockey stick, which reappears within the AR6 SPM, and which has been trumpeted within the press, clearly illustrates the accuracy of Koonin’s conjecture. By excising the MWP and LIA from the worldwide temperature document, the evaluation report’s pretty neutral stance on the existence of each turns into warped to the purpose the place the SPM can declare trendy warming to be unprecedented. The IPCC’s dialogue of marine heatwaves additionally backs up Koonin’s Chinese language Whispers or Phone analogy, exhibiting how the favored notion that marine heatwaves at the moment are twice as widespread as they had been simply 40 years in the past is fallacious.”
See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, TWTWs from Aug 14 to Nov 6, 2021, and a number of posts in https://climateaudit.org/ from August 11 to November 2, 2021.
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From a Local weather Modeler’s Perspective: On her weblog, Judith Curry opinions the e book “The Primacy of Doubt” by Tim Palmer, who:
“…is a Royal Society Analysis Professor within the division of physics on the College of Oxford. He pioneered the event of operational ensemble climate and local weather forecasting. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the U.S. Nationwide Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics’ Dirac Gold Medal.”
Curry begins her overview:
“This can be a fantastically written e book: eloquent whereas on the similar time approachable, spiked with anecdotes and occasional self-deprecating humor. Some quotes from the Introduction, that give a taste of the e book, together with the model of writing.
“’I will probably be elevating the notion of uncertainty, or doubt, to a standing it isn’t often given: not as an “Oh, I suppose we’d higher do a danger evaluation” afterthought, however as a matter of primal significance and focus. There are two causes for doing this. First, there may be the sensible purpose that we’re liable to make awful selections if we base them on predictions with unreliable estimates of uncertainty. However simply as necessary, a minimum of for me as a scientist, we might be able to perceive higher the best way programs work by specializing in the methods through which they’re or can change into unsure.”
“’In brief, the scope of this e book is sort of distinctive. On the one hand we cowl the loftiest questions that philosophy has ever addressed and try and reply them in novel methods. On the opposite we’ll describe sensible strategies which have remodeled the best way we go about predicting how our world will evolve over the approaching days, years and a long time forward. Some readers, I hope, will probably be exhilarated by the dialogue of long-standing conceptual issues like free will, consciousness and the puzzling nature of quantum physics. Others could also be thrilled to see the science of chaos utilized for the good thing about society (and among the poorest elements of society specifically). For but others, studying this e book might assist them perceive themselves higher. Not least they could come to comprehend that a few of our obvious shortcomings will not be indicators of irrationality or failure, however manifestations of our distinctive potential to deal with the big uncertainties of life. There may be, I hope, one thing for everybody.’”
Earlier than discussing a overview in Scientific American, not mentioned right here, Curry concludes her overview with:
“The extra fascinating a part of the Chapter [Chapter 6 on Climate Change] addresses the query within the chapter subtitle: “Disaster or Simply Lukewarm?” Palmer addresses how we must always view local weather change from a perspective that’s according to the “primacy of doubt,” treading fastidiously across the “retailers of doubt” meme. Either side of the argument are reviewed, that are known as the “maximalist” and “minimalist” positions. In Chapter 6 he concludes:
“’Let’s summarise. Taking a selected place—minimalist, maximalist or certainly any particular level in between—is solely inconsistent with the science. The important thing message of this chapter is that one’s perspective to local weather change, prefer to climate prediction, needs to be framed when it comes to danger: Is the chance of undesirable adjustments to local weather excessive sufficient to warrant taking precautionary motion now?’
“Palmer takes on this query extra straight in Chapter 10 Selections! Selections! Palmer introduces the idea of a Statistical Life (which, when expressed when it comes to GDP per capita) could be utilized to each developed and growing nation inhabitants. His conclusion is that it’s overwhelmingly worthwhile to take motion now to scale back the chance of a 4 diploma “hell on earth” hotter world at an assumed 30% chance.
“Laborious to disagree with that conclusion associated to 4C warming, however the satan is within the assumption of 30% chance of 4 C warming. With RCP8.5 more and more being thought to be implausible, and with the IPCC AR6 placing the higher probably sure of equilibrium local weather sensitivity at 4C, the possibilities of 4C warming at the moment are typically thought to be fairly small.
“One thing right here for each the maximalists and minimalists to search out unsatisfactory.”
After discussing the place in Scientific American, Curry concludes the essay:
“JC suggestion to readers: Don’t waste your time studying this e book if all you’re on the lookout for is affirmation of your predilection for (or in opposition to) pressing reductions of fossil gasoline emissions. Learn this e book when you have an mental curiosity about physics, chaos, uncertainty and their functions throughout the sciences. This exceptional e book will certainly fulfill and stimulate your curiosity. Additional, such understanding will result in higher understanding of how we predict and make selections. Most refreshingly for a e book that’s a minimum of partly within the local weather house, this e book does NOT try to inform us what to suppose or which selections to make.”
As said above, TWTW plans to overview the e book from the attitude of Richard Feynman’s essays on bodily science and report again. See hyperlink underneath Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Not Roasting? The press makes use of the poor science within the IPCC studies, significantly the Abstract for Policymakers and the carnival barkers of the UN, to dream up horror tales of utmost warming primarily based on what “scientists say.” Within the transcript offered by Ron Clutz, Ross McKitrick states:
“Folks want to know that for the twentieth century as a complete there’s temperature knowledge for lower than 50 p.c of the Earth’s floor. And quite a lot of stuff is simply being stuffed in with assumptions or modeling work, so it’s actually the output of fashions. And so, as you return in time again to the Twenties as an illustration, right here in Southern Ontario we’ve got nice temperature information again to the Twenties. Right here in Guelph, we’ve got temperature knowledge that goes again to the late 1800s.
“One of many first assignments I’ve my college students do in my environmental economics programs is simply to take a number of areas in Ontario which have greater than 100 Years of temperature knowledge and plot the information for common each day highs again 100 years or extra. That at all times surprises them as a result of they only don’t see what they’re anticipating to see when it comes to an upward pattern. There’s a visual pattern as much as the Thirties or so. After which after that it’s type of up and down flat.
“Summertime temperatures particularly, have gone down, they’ve gone up, however haven’t actually modified a lot for the reason that Thirties.”
McKitrick explains that since about 1960 changes to floor temperature traits have lowered earlier temperature traits and improve latest temperature traits
“Once you take a look at the post-1960 U.S document the changes are as massive because the warming itself.”
Later, McKitrick discusses a core difficulty:
“The burden of proof right here is on the individuals making the changes. For a very long time, they’d refer again to a paper that was finished within the Nineteen Eighties for the Division of power by Tom Wigley because the scientific foundation of the changes. Ultimately I acquired a maintain of that doc (as a result of it’s arduous to search out). It turned out it was actually simply quite a lot of: Okay we predict this document right here moved round 1925, they moved the station from right here to there, so we’re gonna make just a little few adjustments right here and we’ll bump this stretch of the info arrange by this quantity. And so it wasn’t like an in depth scientific methodology that you possibly can topic to some testing and validation.”
McKitrick offers proof that most individuals are ignoring the false claims of the IPCC and its promoters. They aren’t selecting power poverty “to avoid wasting the world.” McKitrick demonstrates the good improve in wealth, life expectancy, and inhabitants which have come from fossil gasoline use. [As shown elsewhere in TWTW, China and South Asia are not going along with the altered “science.”] The transcript closes with:
“It was the event of commercial civilization, a internet profit to the world, and the proof is that the locations the place they didn’t expertise that improvement are doing the whole lot they will to expertise it.
“And all of the supposed harms that individuals discuss, getting again to excessive climate which we talked about originally: The place are individuals in america shifting to? They’re all shifting to the acute climate areas, to the Florida coast and California coast and abandoning the areas just like the Midwest which have the 4 seasons however not precisely topic to tornadoes and hurricanes. As quickly as they will retire, they go away these locations and go to the place they they’ll both have warmth waves within the desert or droughts in California or hurricanes on the Florida coast. And that’s the place they need to retire to. After which after they get there, they will change into local weather activists and protest greenhouse gases.” See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Censorship Is Actual: Some TWTW readers expressed skepticism over final week’s assertion: Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer are too busy growing an appropriate speculation on the formation and dissipation of clouds that they don’t have time to struggle with journal editors. The assertion of “too busy” is concept, however the censorship is actual. In his interview, mentioned in final week’s TWTW, Willie Quickly mentioned the censorship and the way it was tough to publish any papers questioning the official line after the discredited “hockey-stick” was featured in IPCC’s Abstract for Policymakers in (AR3, 2001).
John Christy needed to search publication in a journal revealed by the Korean Meteorological Society, Richard Lindzen revealed within the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences additionally by the Korean Meteorological Society. These are peer-reviewed journals largely ignored by the IPCC and US journals.
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Path to Nowhere: Writing on the power coverage of New York, columnist Holman Jenkins sums up western power folly. Partly, he writes:
“The newest report from New York state’s grid operator is a grasp class in the whole lot fallacious with the Western world’s strategy to local weather change.
“That’s: the whole lot fallacious with an strategy that consists of throwing cash at inexperienced enterprise pursuits in defiance of any sensible consideration. In case you suppose one thing else is happening, reminiscent of abating local weather change, suppose once more.
“To fulfill a legislated purpose of emissions-free electrical energy by 2040, New York will want as much as 45 gigawatts of what it delicately calls DEFRs, or dispatchable emissions-free assets. Not solely is that greater than the state’s complete present producing capability of 37 gigawatts, these DEFRs, that are carbon-free like wind and photo voltaic but not interruptible like wind and photo voltaic, don’t exist and haven’t any prospect of current within the subsequent decade. Beginning very a lot ahead of 2040, New York’s actual alternative will probably be Third World electrical energy reliability vs. paying fossil-fuel operators massive charges to maintain their crops up and operating in a extremely inefficient part-time trend.
“Many concerned within the state’s power ‘transition’ would possibly query whether or not purging the final 10% or 5% of fossil fuels from the system is well worth the exorbitant value. Don’t count on anybody to confess the larger drawback: The transition gained’t probably do a lot to scale back international emissions.
“That is the good unmentionable. When New Yorkers use much less coal, oil or gasoline due to environmental mandates, the market value transmits the profit to different international customers, who then use extra. Much more unspeakable is the corollary: Emission-spewing actions merely relocate from one a part of the world to a different. China’s emissions progress, from half the U.S.’s to virtually 300% of the U.S.’s in 30 years, is partly the product of a transplant of emissions from the U.S. and Europe
“If pressed, Biden officers will privately revert to gobbledygook about carbon taxes that seem immaculately with out anybody having to advocate them. The media fill the hole with wishful considering and Soviet econometrics, complicated inputs with outputs. Sure, world-wide funding in renewables prior to now two years has exceeded funding in fossil fuels. Supposedly this proves fossil fuels are on their means out. No, it proves fossil fuels are a greater deal, consuming much less funding to fulfill their share of the world’s rising energy wants.” [Boldface added]
A long time of subsidies for politically favored industries that may fail with out them is just not the trail for financial progress, solely destruction. See Article # 1, Issues within the Orthodoxy, and Change in US Administrations.
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Variety of the Week: Down 36.5%. In line with the US Power Info, Petroleum & Different Liquids web site on Weekly US Ending Shares of Crude Oil in SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), on January 22, 2021, the shares had been 638,086,000 barrels. On October 14, 2022, the shares had been 405,135,000 barrels, the bottom since June 1, 1984, when the reserve was nonetheless increasing. The decline is 36.5%, the best ever; with no conflict, no embargo or no actual disaster, besides Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which doesn’t threaten US petroleum manufacturing or restrict US petroleum use. See https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
Science: Is the Solar Rising?
Winter Gatekeeper Speculation: New help for the impact of photo voltaic exercise on decrease atmospheric circulation
By Javier Vinós, Local weather, And so forth. Oct 20, 2022
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About International Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Obtain with no cost:
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
International Sea-Stage Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Could 20, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy
50-12 months U.S. Summer time Temperature Traits: ALL 36 Local weather Fashions Are Too Heat
By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022
“As seen within the accompanying plot, 50-year (1973-2022) summer time (June/July/August) temperature traits for the contiguous 48 U.S. states from 36 CMIP-6 local weather mannequin experiments common practically twice the warming price as noticed by the NOAA local weather division dataset.”
McKitrick: Reckoning Coming for Local weather Alarmists
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 20, 2022
Video and Transcript by Clutz
Chinese language Whispers & The IPCC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 20, 2022
Hyperlink to paper: Chinese language Whispers: How local weather science will get distorted in translation
By Ralph Alexander, GWPF, 2022
A Hidden Universe of Uncertainty
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 18, 2022
Climatism is a Logic Fail
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 17, 2022
The Primacy of Doubt
By Judith Curry, Local weather And so forth. Oct 18, 2022
Scientists uncover mechanism that may trigger collapse of nice Atlantic circulation system
By José Tadeu Arantes, FAPESP, Oct 18, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
By Hyperlink to paper: ubsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Occasions
By Lars Max, et al. Nature Communications, July 21, 2022
From the press launch: “The newest collapse performed a key position within the final deglaciation. AMOC is now threatened by international warming, scientists have proven, and a brand new research has found the sequence of previous breakdown occasions.”
“This newest discovery suggests the weaker AMOC will trigger anomalous subsurface warming at excessive latitudes of the North Atlantic, which is able to soften glacier sea snouts in Greenland. Finally, this might lead AMOC to break down, exacerbating the local weather disaster with main repercussions.”
[SEPP Comment: A weaker circulation would mean less heat flow from the tropics to the Arctic. How would that cause a warming of the Arctic? The issue is Heinrich events of large discharges of icebergs that occur about 60,000 to 16,800 years. They are thought to be related to Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Bond cycles. The causes are unclear.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Detection Of A CO2 Local weather Sign In Radiative Forcing Is Once more Foiled By Clouds
By Kenneth Richard, No Tips Zone, Oct 20, 2022
Hyperlink to paper: Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Power System (CERES) FluxByCldTyp Version 4 Knowledge Product
By Moguo Solar, et al, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Know-how, Mar 17, 2022
From the summary: “As an alternative of counting on radiative switch fashions, the FBCT [The CERES Flux By Cloud Type] product makes use of Average Decision Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiances partitioned by cloud sort inside a CERES footprint to estimate the cloud-type broadband fluxes. The MODIS multichannel derived broadband fluxes had been in contrast with the CERES noticed footprint fluxes and had been discovered to be inside 1% and a couple of.5% for LW and SW, respectively, in addition to being largely freed from cloud property dependencies.”
Delusion and ‘Following the Science’
The actual nature of the apocalypse we’re dealing with.
By Bruce Thornton, Entrance Web page, Oct 20, 2022
“As authors S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery summarized this analysis, ‘The earth is warming however bodily proof from all over the world tells us that human-emitted CO2 (carbon dioxide) has performed solely a minor position. As an alternative, the gentle warming appears to be a part of a pure 1,500-year [later revised to 2500 years] local weather cycle (plus or minus 500 years) that goes again a minimum of a million years.’”
New Research Claims The CO2 Improve Since 1850 Can Account For Solely Half Of Fashionable International Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tips Zone, Oct 17, 2022
Hyperlink to newest research: Modeling the Carbon Cycle Dynamics and the Greenhouse Impact
By Soo Hyoung Choi &Vasilios I. Manousiouthakis, A part of particular difficulty: thirteenth IFAC Symposium on Dynamics and Management of Course of Programs, June 14-17
The actual transition of the final 700 years was *to* fossil fuels
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 17, 2022
Alex Epstein is Successful (humanism, progress = mineral energies)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 21, 2022
After Paris!
COP27 It’s All Concerning the Cash says Mates of Science; Be Glad the Local weather Emergency is Over
Press Launch, Mates of Science, Oct 20, 2022
IPCC: We Name Your Bluff (COP 27 alarmism within the air)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Grasp Useful resource, Oct 17, 2022
Biden to empty extra oil from SPR… Expects oil business refill it for $68-72/bbl
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 20, 2022
Costly Power Is a Core Characteristic, Not a Bug, of Biden’s Local weather Agenda
By Marlo Lewis, Actual Clear Power, Oct 16, 2022
President Biden Is Planning To Launch Extra Oil From The SPR
By Irina Slav, Oil Worth.com Oct 18, 2022
Issues within the Orthodoxy
China says low-cost power is extra necessary than local weather want checklist
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 21, 2022
“The scariest factor is {that a} communist dictator appears extra smart than any democratic one.”
Internet Zero by 2070: India nonetheless has 99 coal tasks in pipeline
India has a 36% underutilised coal capability in current mines
By Seema Prasad, Downtoearth, Oct 14, 2022
Vietnam’s U-Activate Coal Displays Inevitable Power Actuality
By Vijay Jayaraj, Actual Clear Power, Oct 17, 2022
Thailand bets on coal regardless of lengthy shedding streak for communities
By Kannikar Petchkaew, Mongabay, Oct 13, 2022
Beneath a photograph of an influence plant: “Researchers say the ultra-supercritical steam mills like those deliberate for Mae Moh are extra environment friendly than older applied sciences, however will nonetheless emit carbon dioxide into the environment. Picture courtesy of The Community for the Rights of Mae Moh Sufferers.
[SEPP Comment: And carbon dioxide harms agriculture?]
Searching for a Widespread Floor
Inexperienced Davos: Local weather sceptics attraction traders
By David Whitehouse, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 21, 2022
“This isn’t a convention about local weather science, it’s a convention for traders. This isn’t scientists presenting papers and constructing their profiles, that is about one thing that requires a deeper intelligence. Cash.”
Science destroys its credibility by embracing essential idea
The acceptance of trendy nonsense is a menace to Enlightenment values and public well being.
By Cameron English, Massive Assume, Oct 12, 2022
Why The Woke Create The Disasters They Warn Of
My dialog with Will Cain on power nihilism, local weather narcissism, and why the WEF desires you to eat bugs.
Video by Michael Shellenberger, His Weblog, Oct 17, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Sure, local weather change is dangerous — however scientists should ‘chill’ with regards to doomsday situations, specialists say
By Chris Melore, Research Finds, Oct 17, 2022
Hyperlink to letter: Catastrophic local weather dangers needs to be neither understated nor overstated
By Matthew G. Burgess, Roger Pielke Jr., and Justin Ritchie, PNAS, Oct 10, 2022
In line with the article: ‘Proper now, not as many local weather fashions focus sufficient consideration on center situations. That ought to change.’
[SEPP Comment: Actually, all the models overestimate current trends, and should not be used for policy.]
Science, Coverage, and Proof
EU Members Disagree On How To Ease The Power Disaster
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Worth.com, Oct 18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Stop pretending there is a climate crisis.]
Moooving proper alongside
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
Fashions v. Observations
Even after they know the reply the fashions heat an excessive amount of
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
“Clearly solely the low-ECS fashions get the warming something near proper. The medium- and high-ECS fashions don’t describe the local weather we stay in, they describe some hothouse alarmist dystopia. However these are the fashions that governments look to when conjuring up photographs of what the long run will deliver, which is why gullible younger individuals have taken to throwing soup at van Gogh work.”
Altering Climate
Storm Frequency Has Fallen Since 1950, Contradicting Alarmist International Warming Claims
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Oct 18, 2022
Charts by Kirye, utilizing knowledge from the Japan Meteorological Company (JMA) [Pacific typhoons]
Scientists Warn of a Uncommon Third 12 months La Nina
Press Launch by institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese language Academy of Sciences, Through WUWT, Oct 21, 2022
Hyperlink to paper: Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Set off a Third-year La Niña Occasion?
By Xianghui Fang, et al. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, July 26, 2022
Alarmist Scientist Tim Flannery’s Drought Prediction Contradicted… “Heavy Rainfalls” 3 Years In a Row
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Oct 21, 2022
The forgotten floods of Victoria from 150 years in the past… when Melbourne change into “Venice”
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 18, 2022
All people is aware of: BC droughts are worse than ever
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
“A 2015 research by Bethany Coulthard of the College of Arizona and Dan Smith of the College of Victoria used tree ring widths on Vancouver island to reconstruct estimates of streamflow depth over 477 years from 1520 to 1997, which they in comparison with latest instrumental measurements of drought occasions together with these in 2003 and 2009. Their findings? Drought is just not new in BC:”
Research Finds Local weather Change Means Much less Drought In US
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 15, 2022
Sooner-developing, wetter hurricanes to return
By Brendan Bane, Pacific Northwest Nationwide Laboratory, Oct 17, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Rising Hurricane Intensification Fee Close to the US Atlantic Coast
By Karthik Balaguru, et al. Geophysical Analysis Letters, Oct 17, 2022
See hyperlink instantly beneath
Is International Warming Answerable for Hurricane Ian? The Proof Says No
By Chris Martz, WUWT, Oct 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment; If there is any generalization one can make, it is that hurricanes hitting the US have become smaller, not more intense.]
Report Chilly within the Midwest Whereas the Northwest is Heat and Dry
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 18, 2022
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Faux Greenland Melting
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022
Reality examine: Human-driven international warming elevated Larsen ice shelf soften
By Kate S. Petersen, USA At the moment, Phys.org, Oct 20, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“The Larsen C ice shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula is taken into account to be susceptible to break down underneath sure international warming situations, based on researchers.”
[SEPP Comment: Define collapse – 10,000 years?]
Western Hudson Bay polar bears ready for the ocean ice to freeze as vacationers flock to observe
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 16, 2022
“These vacationers are captive audiences for the worldwide warming propaganda offered by activist group Polar Bears Worldwide: it’s just about inconceivable for anybody to flee the local weather change doom-mongering in Churchill and that’s an actual pity.”
Polar bear in good situation visits small Cree group 130km from coast of W. Hudson Bay
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 20, 2022
“[Another] bear was first noticed on Friday 14 October and was captured Tuesday 18 October. Oddly, not one of the studies explicitly state the intercourse of the bear, even these revealed after it was captured. Is it now politically incorrect to explain the intercourse of an animal?”
Agriculture Points & Concern of Famine
Drought-Tolerant Crops: A Success Story The Non-GMO Mission Hates
By Cameron English, ACSH, Oct 4, 2022
Decreasing Requirements
Nutty Lecturers Demand We Should Reduce Our Normal Of Residing
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 15, 2022
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?
No BBC, There Have been No Report Extra Deaths This Summer time
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 16, 2022
“Hurricane Ian left 131 individuals lifeless in its wake, however based on the BBC that was nothing in comparison with the demise toll which resulted from a number of scorching days in Britain this summer time!”
New Statesman Takes Us All For Fools
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 14, 2022
Attenborough Laments Demise of 800 Penguins “As a result of Local weather Change” – However Fails To Report Discovery of New Colony 1.5 Million Robust
By Chris Morrison, Through WUWT, Oct 18, 2022
Inhabitants Crash Cancels Alaska Snow Crab Season – Media Falsely Blames Local weather Change
By Anthony Watts, Local weather Realism, Oct 18, 2022
[SEPP Link immediately below. The changing biomass of the eastern Bering Sea is a key.]
Professional identifies “key wrongdoer” in mass die-off of Alaska snow crabs
By Workers, CBS Information, Oct 30, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Imprecise?
Flip Your Lights On, It’s Friday!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 17, 2022
“It’s of little profit having renewables supplying your entire energy for 5 hours, if produce little for the remainder of the week!”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
A blessing in deep disguise
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
“’ ‘Renewables give us the liberty to decide on an power supply that’s clear, low-cost, dependable, and ours,’ EU Inexperienced Deal chief Frans Timmermans stated lower than two weeks after Putin’s tanks rolled in.’”
No, Politico Europe, Vladimir Putin Is Not Making Europe “Inexperienced”
By Robert Bryce, Actual Clear Power, Oct 19, 2022
“In additional than 30 years as a reporter, I’ve witnessed loads of media puffery and lying. However final week’s inclusion by Politico Europe of Russian President Vladimir Putin on their “Inexperienced 28” checklist ranks as some of the odious and disgusting examples of media misconduct I’ve ever seen.”
“Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan not too long ago summed up Russia’s techniques in Ukraine writing, ‘There may be now ample proof from lots of the liberated cities of not merely Russian troopers robbing and killing civilians, however of unit commanders organising rape clinics and torture chambers to be used by the lads underneath their command. Struggle crimes in a tactical sense.’”
Battery Airplanes? Nope! (MIT Know-how Overview)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 20, 2022
Speaking Higher to the Public – Protest
Soup from nuts
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
Beneath Background in Simply Cease Oil: “Permitting the extraction of latest oil and gasoline assets within the UK is an obscene and genocidal coverage that may kill our youngsters and condemn humanity to oblivion. It simply has to cease.
“If we proceed down our present path it’ll destroy households and communities. We’ll face the hunger and the slaughter of billions of the poor – and the utter betrayal of our youngsters and their future.”
“In eight years we have to finish our reliance on fossil fuels fully. The transition would require large funding in clear know-how, renewables and power storage but it surely can’t be finished at present ranges of power consumption.”
“Local weather collapse will imply the top of staff’ rights, girls’s rights, all human rights. It’s already the best injustice visited on the worldwide south in human historical past. In case you are not in resistance, you’re appeasing evil.”
[SEPP Comment: The product of thirty years of UN IPCC exaggeration.]
Volkswagon solves glue protests by supporting them — no lights, no heating, no consideration
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 21, 2022
JSP protests the shortage of oil
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
Questioning European Inexperienced
They Can’t Make Inexperienced Power Utilizing Solely Inexperienced Power
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 17, 2022
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
Did Henry Ford’s success come about as a result of he demanded the execution of horses?
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 11, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Non-Inexperienced Jobs
No progress whereas Internet Zero is in place [UK]
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 15, 2022
The Political Video games Proceed
British PM Wins Pyrrhic Victory on Fracking
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 20, 2022
Proposed local weather rule is greater, badder deal than Manchin-Schumer local weather invoice
By Rupert Darwall, The Hill, Oct 15, 2022
“But when this actually had been a mere tidying-up train, it wouldn’t want greater than 500 pages of rule-making.”
“In actuality, the proposed rule is about local weather coverage. Its sensible impact can be to facilitate the flexibility of institutional traders and local weather activists to impose, monitor and implement local weather targets on publicly traded firms, with out acquiring specific authorization from Congress.”
Litigation Points
19 Attorneys Common Announce Investigation into Six Wall Road Corporations over ESG Investing
By Sean Moran, Breitbart, Oct 19, 2022 [H/t John Dunn]
Clintel seeks your help within the local weather case of the century
By Workers, Climategate.NL, No Date
New Jersey sues 5 oil firms, commerce group for allegedly concealing position in local weather change
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 18, 2022
“The lawsuit cites documented cases of implied data of local weather change by the defendants courting again a long time, reminiscent of investments in raised oil platforms to account for sea-level rise and a 1973 Exxon patent for a cargo ship that might break by sea ice. Even additional again, the plaintiffs allege, the corporate that may ultimately change into ConocoPhillips obtained a patent in 1966 for an early type of carbon sequestration know-how.”
[SEPP Comment: Climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years. Does this AG claim it will stop with no CO2 emissions?]
EPA and different Regulators on the March
EPA takes further step towards phasing out planet-warming gasoline utilized in refrigeration
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 20, 2022
[SEPP Comment; A typical meaningless step by EPA except to make refrigeration more costly and less energy efficient.]
Power Points – Non-US
Former Shell boss urges business to fight ‘power illiteracy’
A former chief govt of Shell informed Power Voice that the business must deal with educating the general public and politicians on the complexities of the sector, and use its individuals as “ambassadors”.
By Andrew Dykes and Ryan Duff, Power Voice, Oct 19, 2022
MPs kill UK fracking prospects in enormous reward to Putin
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 20, 2022
Netherlands Shutting Down The Largest Gasoline Discipline In Europe
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022
And a half-cheer for Freeland
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
Power Points — US
A Chilly, Darkish Winter in New England
By John Hinderaker, Energy Line, Oct 17, 2022
New England Dealing with Blackouts This Winter, As Mad Inexperienced Insurance policies Chunk
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 20, 2022
Hyperlink to report: Pure gasoline disaster constructing in New England
By Dustin Stolz, ADI Analytics, Oct 17, 2022
[SEPP Congress: No help from Congress or the administration.]
Inexperienced Power Fail: New England Dealing with Rolling Blackouts this Winter
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 19, 2022
The Massive Bang Principle – Classes From The RINs Worth Spike Of 2013 And Why They Nonetheless Apply
By George Hoekstra, RBN Power, Oct 20, 2022
Nuclear Power and Fears
One other cheer for Greta
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 19, 2022
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
Is Personal Renewable Power Funding Faltering in Australia?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 20, 2022
Is Wind Power Turning into Too Costly?
By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Worth.com, Oct 16, 2022
Photo voltaic Farms
Michael Shellenberger, His Weblog Oct 16, 2022
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Power — Different
BP Biogas: Greenwashing with the Uneconomic
By Robert Bradley, Grasp Useful resource, Oct 18, 2022
Can Inexperienced Hydrogen Change Pure Gasoline?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 20, 2022
Gasoline consumption final yr was 860 TWh
Electrolysis usually works at about 60% effectivity. That’s, an enter of 100 MWh would produce 60 MWh of hydrogen
Electrical energy enter to provide 860 TWh of gasoline can be 1433 TWh
Assuming this electrical energy comes from devoted offshore wind farms, we would want capability of 364 GW.
Present offshore capability is 13 GW
“Changing Pure Gasoline With Hydrogen Is A Fairy Story”…”Six Instances Extra Electrical energy”
Hydrogen as an power supply for powering transport and heating poses colossal technical and value challenges
By Die kalte Sonne, Through P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Oct 15, 2022
Wooden Theft Skyrocketing As Germans Attempt To Maintain Heat. Firewood Tracked By GPS
By P Gosselin, No Tips Zone, Oct 19, 2022
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Power — Storage
Novel Grid Battery Launched
By Donn Dears, Energy For USA, Oct 18, 2022
Hyperlink to web site: “Battery Know-how”
By Workers, Kind Power, Accessed Oct 21, 2022
“Our first industrial product utilizing our iron-air know-how is optimized to retailer electrical energy for 100 hours at system prices aggressive with legacy energy crops. This product is our first step to tackling the most important barrier to deep decarbonization: making renewable power accessible when and the place it’s wanted, even throughout a number of days of utmost climate, grid outages, or durations of low renewable era.” Boldface added
[SEPP Comment: It may be a typo, but the 100 hours is not practical for long term storage. The self-discharge of LI-ion batteries is far slower, about 2 to 3% per month.]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
“There’s no such factor as a zero emissions car”
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 19, 2022
Video on mining required to provide EV batteries
Bjorn Lomborg: Electrical Automobile Subsidies Are a Dangerous Funding
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 19, 2022
Hyperlink to article: Electrical Automobile Subsidies Are A Dangerous Funding | Opinion
By Bjorn Lomborg, Newsweek, Oct 18, 2022
Value of public charging an EV is now dearer than filling up with diesel–Parkers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 17, 2022
Totally Electrical Autos Reached ~6% Of Auto Gross sales In USA In Third Quarter
6% of US auto gross sales is up from EVs’ 2.2% of US auto gross sales in Q3 2020.
By Zachary Shahan, Clear Technica, Oct 14, 2022
[SEPP Comment: What would sales be without a $7500 tax credit? The ill named Inflation Reduction Act extended the credit to December 2032 as a discount to the purchaser, the credit going to the dealer. It also removed the 200,000-vehicle cap on manufacturers.]
The Argument For Electrical Autos Simply Bought Worse
By Workers, The Congressional Insider, No Date [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
California Dreaming
Robbing Grandma to Pay Gaia
By Thomas Buckley, WUWT, Oct 17, 2022
Environmental Trade
The Inexperienced Power Profiteering Rip-off
“Inexperienced” Income Can Solely Rise if Residents’ Freedoms Fall
By J.B. Shurk, Gatestone Institute, Oct 20, 2022
Different Information that Could Be of Curiosity
California Coastal Fee Approves New Desalination Plant in Orange County
Approval marks reversal of CCC rejection of earlier desalination crops
By Evan Symon, California Globe, Oct 14, 2022
“Whereas environmental teams tried to cease the plant as a result of claims of hurt to sea life due to the water consumption wells and plant runoff, the CCC famous the tasks’ final dedication to avoiding sea life hurt. Different opposition teams tried to deal with the value of water going up at 20% to $1,479 per acre foot for individuals who would obtain the water. However, as soon as ultimate prices had been calculated to solely a $2 to $7 a month rise in water prices per family, that time was moot.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Guardian Readers Are The Most Gullible On The Planet, New Knowledge Exhibits
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 21, 2022
“Subsequent pandemic might come from melting glaciers, new knowledge exhibits”
109 Years Of Local weather Emergency
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022
British City Council Axes Main Annual Airshow Over Local weather Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 18, 2022
CO2 Making Folks Fats
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 20, 2022
ARTICLES
1. Western World’s Power Folly in a New York Nutshell
Why ought to Europe have all of the enjoyable? The Empire State tries to sabotage its grid with renewables.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Oct. 21, 2022
2TWTW Abstract: Key factors introduced within the This Week part above.