Monday, September 19, 2022
HomeWales WeatherWeekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #520 – Watts Up With...

Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #520 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2022-09-17 (September 17, 2022)
Delivered to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Mission

Quote of the Week: “Earlier than you make a case a normal rule, check it two or 3 times and observe whether or not all experiments produce similar outcomes.” – Leonardo da Vinci.

Variety of the Week: Lower than 0.2°C, 0.4°F

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Mission (SEPP)

Scope: CLINTEL printed an interview with William van Wijngaarden of York College giving additional insights on the greenhouse impact, amongst different points. Van Wijngaarden has authored a number of essential papers with William Happer on the warming results of main greenhouse gases together with methane, carbon dioxide, and water vapor, crucial greenhouse fuel. Their papers in 2022 are “2n-Stream Radiative Switch” (June), using a brand new technique to resolve the radiative switch phenomena and “2n-Stream Conservative Scattering” (July), which makes use of the matrix strategies of quantum mechanics to calculate the radiative switch in clouds. This may increasingly result in an understanding of the formation and dispersion of clouds, an essential unknown within the affect of the greenhouse impact on earth’s temperatures. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) and its followers largely ignore spectroscopy, the department of physics coping with the detection of electromagnetic radiation from atoms. Thus, it’s uncertain these papers will obtain the eye they deserve. Mentioned beneath is among the present considering by van Wijngaarden.

Additionally mentioned is William Kininmonth’s report on the Greenhouse Impact. He was the pinnacle of Australia’s Nationwide Local weather Centre earlier than it misplaced its means. Kininmonth makes use of the MODTRAN laptop program to display that the contribution of carbon dioxides to the greenhouse impact is minimal. He discusses the significance of vitality circulation by ocean currents.

Craig Idso has an essay on the advantages of carbon dioxide and what could turn out to be the remarkably excessive prices of carbon taxes.

The twenty-seventh Convention of Events (COP-27) to the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change is quick approaching and the baseless drumbeat {that a} binding settlement controlling emissions of carbon dioxide by Western International locations should be signed has begun. One focus is how low-cost electrical energy will turn out to be with wind, photo voltaic, and hydrogen storage. The examine comes from Oxford College’s Institute for New Financial Pondering – and might be greatest described as “construct a mathematical mannequin and the bodily actuality obeying it would magically seem! Feedback on this new type of considering are introduced.

Meteorologist Cliff Mass has an essay demonstrating that the smoke from wildfires within the Pacific Northwest is hardly unprecedented, as claimed in lots of experiences.

********************

No Harmful Warming: William van Wijngaarden was interviewed by Jan van Friesland of CLINTEL. Under is an edited model of among the questions and responses (in italics) with boldface added.

“We all know CO2 absorbs radiation. Are you able to clarify what CO2 absorption is, exactly, and why this absorption is chargeable for warming the environment?”

“It is very important first perceive that each one objects radiate vitality often known as Black Physique Radiation, which will increase very quickly with absolutely the temperature. Absolutely the and Celsius temperatures are associated by T(Kelvin) = T(C) + 273. Therefore, 0 C corresponds to 273 Kelvins. Which means that a scorching object just like the solar radiates orders of magnitude extra vitality than an object such because the Earth. The vitality is radiated throughout a spectrum of wavelengths. For the solar with a floor temperature of about 6000 Kelvins, the height radiation happens at seen wavelengths. For the Earth with a mean floor temperature of 15 C or 288 Ok, the radiation is within the infrared and has most depth near the frequency (667 cm‑1 or 15 mm) the place CO2 strongly absorbs.”

The CO2 molecule is a linear molecule the place an oxygen atom is on both facet of the carbon atom. When the CO2 absorbs infrared gentle at 667 cm-1, it vibrates such that it bends, i.e., the Oxygen atoms flop up and down relative to the carbon atom.  As well as, the CO2 molecule like different atmospheric molecules resembling O2, N2 and so forth. strikes about at speeds of lots of of meters per second. Collisions happen very often leading to inside vitality of the molecule being transferred to translational movement. Temperature might be regarded as a measure of the translational vitality.

“Why doesn’t CO2 soak up extra and because of this causes little or no warming?”

“The Earth’s environment already has plenty of CO2 which causes the absorption at 667 cm-1 to be saturated. Doubling CO2 from 400 to 800 ppm will improve the temperature by about 1 C. Saturation means the temperature improve is determined by the logarithm of the CO2 focus change. To get an extra 1 C warming, CO2 would want to double once more from 800 to 1600 ppm. At this time charge of improve of two ppm/12 months, it might take about 2 centuries to double CO2 to 800 ppm.”

“How concerning the suggestions of CO2 – water vapor? Mainstream fashions estimate a really excessive optimistic suggestions. Is that exaggerated estimation not chargeable for the catastrophic predictions about international warming?”

Doubling CO2 is predicted to extend the floor temperature by practically 1 C. This quantity is one thing that’s fairly nicely understood, and we have now confirmed it in our calculations. Hotter air can include extra water vapor (one thing Chemists name the Clausius Clapeyron equation). That’s apparent as a result of giant quantities of precipitation happen solely when it’s scorching and humid. Equally, giant snowfalls happen when the temperature is close to the freezing level, not when this can be very chilly.

Water vapor is crucial greenhouse fuel. The reason being that it absorbs radiation at many extra wavelengths than CO2 and the environment comprises practically 100 instances extra H2O than CO2 molecules. With out water vapor, the Earth can be coated in ice and life wouldn’t be potential. The query is, how will atmospheric water vapor change if there’s a small temperature improve attributable to CO2 doubling. This is named the water suggestions impact and is tough to estimate. The amplification of the 1 C warming generated by doubling CO2 vary from none for the case of no change in atmospheric H2O to about 60% if one assumes that relative humidity is not going to change. When confronted with completely different theoretical predictions, one wants to watch the environment. Observations made utilizing excessive altitude balloons and satellites don’t present important improve in water vapor over the previous 50 years.

The previous dialogue refers to water vapor not CLOUDS. One can ask if extra atmospheric water vapor, will produce extra clouds, thicker clouds, larger stage Cirrus versus lower-level Cumulus clouds. Clouds undoubtedly have an effect on temperature. In the course of the day, temperatures lower when a cloud blocks the solar whereas at evening clouds heat the floor. Everybody realizes that clouds are crucial to what is going to occur to the local weather. Sadly, our understanding of this topic is in its infancy.

“Why is the position of oceans essential to grasp local weather?”

“A liquid resembling water has a a lot larger density than air and may subsequently soak up rather more thermal vitality which is transported by ocean currents. Probably the most well-known is the Gulf Stream that transports heat water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. That is the rationale why international locations resembling Nederland [Netherlands] expertise a a lot hotter local weather than areas at comparable latitude resembling Labrador.

“Sea floor ocean temperatures differ in time. Probably the greatest recognized is the so referred to as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which describes a change of the ocean floor temperature within the southern Pacific. Generally a deep pool of heat water close to Australia spreads out in the direction of South America. This in flip warms the air resulting in important precipitation adjustments alongside the west coast of North and South America. Sadly, predicting ENSO in addition to different oscillations such because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is just not potential. These temperature variations have been recognized for hundreds of years. Within the case of the NAO, the Vikings knew that comparatively chilly European winters corresponded to hotter winters in Greenland/Iceland and vice versa.”

“In your e-book “Is World Warming Scorching Air?” you write that many local weather scientists don’t query the correctness of local weather fashions themselves. Why do they take it with no consideration that fashions at all times do perform nicely?”

It’s unlucky that many local weather researchers don’t query the local weather fashions particularly when the observations battle with predictions. Probably the greatest-known failures was that the typical international temperature stopped growing after 2000 which known as the hiatus. Developing a worldwide local weather mannequin necessitates estimating a myriad of parameters. Science has at all times progressed by evaluating idea to commentary. If the idea is mistaken, it should be refined. I don’t query the sincerity of the modelers, however an correct local weather mannequin could be very difficult.

After discussing subjects resembling crops develop quicker with growing CO2, van Wijngaarden concludes with:

“One needs to be affected person and politely level out how the observations help/differ from local weather fashions. The worst factor for the local weather fanatics can be if governments implement their espoused insurance policies. As soon as, individuals see oil and pure fuel taxes spiral upwards, they are going to insurgent. The taxes will likely be decreased, and the laws delayed.

Like most individuals, I need to defend and enhance our surroundings. I’m additionally very supportive of vitality conservation and increasing analysis. Sadly, growing a greater battery has proved to be a tough enterprise even after a century of effort. Equally, a greater understanding of the local weather utilizing extra in depth satellite tv for pc monitoring in addition to land and ocean measurements needs to be a really excessive worldwide precedence.” See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy, the June and July papers include superior arithmetic.

********************

Ocean Currents: In “Rethinking The Greenhouse Impact” William Kininmonth makes use of the MODerate decision atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) laptop program to display that ocean currents are particularly essential within the circulation of warmth vitality and growing CO2 is just not notably essential. MODTRAN is designed to mannequin atmospheric propagation of electromagnetic radiation and has been in large use for many years. MODTRAN is just not as exact because the HITRAN database utilized by van Wijngaarden and Happer. Though they use completely different databases and completely different approaches, the considering of all these researchers seems to be aligned. Further carbon dioxide is not going to trigger harmful international warming and local weather modelers have failed to grasp the complexity of variation inside to the earth’s local weather system. The preface to the report states:

“The sample of current international warming underscores the validity of what meteorologists well known: the oceans are the very important inertial and thermal flywheels of the local weather system. The corollary is, if one desires to manage local weather, it is going to be crucial to manage the oceans. Efforts to decarbonize within the hope of affecting international temperatures will likely be in useless.’

In accordance with Kininmonth:

“The temperature of the nice and cozy ocean is affected by 4 vitality flows:

• absorption of shortwave radiation direct from the solar

• absorption of longwave radiation from greenhouse gases within the environment [It is often said that increasing infrared radiation from the sky to the surface is causing heat to be stored deep in the ocean, but longwave radiation penetrates less than a millimeter.]

• lack of warmth and latent vitality to the environment

• lack of warmth through ocean currents.”

What’s essential, is the warmth loss from the tropics.

“Over the tropics, the warmth and latent vitality from the ocean floor stays within the lowest layer of the environment beneath the clouds, and the commerce winds draw it into the Equatorial Trough – a slim band of latitudes near the equator (the Doldrums, in widespread parlance). As the warmth builds up on this area, deep convection clouds kind and it’s these that transport warmth upwards into larger layers of the environment, the place the winds distribute the warmth poleward.

The transport of warmth upwards via this deep convection course of creates a decent hyperlink between the temperature of the tropical environment and that of the ocean floor beneath. Determine 2 [not included here] reveals the coherence of the environment and ocean floor temperatures. The correlation between the detrended data is 0.86, albeit with a one- to two-month delay within the environment’s response.

The temperatures in each data change markedly from 12 months to 12 months – at instances by as much as 1°C. These adjustments are related to adjustments within the ocean circulation related to the El Niño and La Niña occasions. Superimposed on this short-term variability, there have been long-term warming developments of about 0.1°C per decade in each data. The impact of the warming is two-fold:

• the elevated heat within the tropical environment is a supply of extra vitality and will increase the speed of warmth transport to larger latitudes.

• the hotter oceans improve the circulation of latent vitality to the environment.

The latent vitality is just not instantly obvious however will likely be seen within the warming at larger latitudes.”

He then discusses Arctic warming earlier than concluding:

“The traits of current local weather change and its trigger are clear. The tropical oceans have warmed, not because of extra atmospheric carbon dioxide however most certainly due to a discount within the transport of warmth, as ocean currents gradual. The hotter tropical oceans have raised the temperature of the tropical environment in flip, particularly via the medium of deep equatorial convection clouds. Further vitality flowing from the hotter tropical oceans has been transported by the winds to reinforce polar warming, particularly within the winter months.

“Put one other means, current warming might be merely the results of a fluctuation within the ever-changing ocean circulation; carbon dioxide should be acknowledged as a really minor contributor to the noticed warming and one that’s unlikely to delay the warming pattern past the height generated by the pure oceanic oscillations.

“There was a lot hypothesis that the current warming pattern will generate excessive climate occasions harmful to humankind. The proof is just not compelling. The best warming has been over excessive northern latitudes, when temperatures are nicely beneath freezing. It should subsequently be unlikely to have any considerable affect on flora or fauna. However this, the impacts of each short- and medium-term shifts in pure oscillations, resembling El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, will proceed, and satisfactory preparedness stay important.”  These feedback are adopted by the citation cited above. See hyperlinks below Difficult the Orthodoxy.

********************

Price of CO2 Removing: Craig Idso addresses a difficulty few individuals ever considered. What can be the prices to society of eradicating CO2 from the environment? He addresses the prices via carbon dioxide taxation leading to larger vitality costs. Idso states:

“Consequently, any commodity or product downstream of vitality manufacturing will likely be impacted by larger prices—ergo we have now no less than one important draw back to enacting CO2 emission discount schemes.

“Nowhere is that this extra evident than within the agricultural sector of the financial system, which depends on low-cost vitality to provide meals and different merchandise essential to sustaining life on the planet. As the prices to provide agricultural merchandise improve, these prices are handed on to the patron, thereby decreasing disposable family revenue, which discount additionally disproportionately burdens the poor.”

He goes via a number of carbon dioxide pricing schemes displaying that the prices might be extreme. This kind of considering is sorely missing in what authorities planners name “cost-benefit” research. See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.

********************

Financial Fantasies: COP-27 will begin on November 6, 2022, within the resort city Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Little question many rich individuals will present their concern for the poor by arriving of their costly, diesel-powered yachts. Already we’re seeing questionable research on the evils of carbon dioxide, so wanted for all times on this planet. Maybe probably the most absurd one thus far is from the Oxford College Institute for New Financial Pondering claiming that the prices of wind and solar energy and use of hydrogen for storage of electrical energy are plunging.

Henry Ford significantly decreased the price of vehicles and improved the standard by utilizing standardized components and assembly-line manufacturing. All too often, economists declare comparable reductions will happen by increasing manufacturing with out figuring out if standardization and extra environment friendly assembly-lines are potential. So, it seems with the Institute for New Financial Pondering in “Empirically grounded expertise forecasts and the vitality transition.”

Meeting traces for the manufacturing of wind generators exist. However every website requires site-specific development. Worse, wind generators require the uncommon earths neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium and in addition to cobalt. Uncommon earths are so named not essentially as a result of they’re uncommon, however as a result of they don’t seem to be present in concentrations resembling iron and copper are. Extracting them requires great earth transferring and it’s uncertain that assembly-line situations might be efficiently utilized. Already, the prices of uncommon earths are growing, not falling.

Roughly 70% of Cobalt comes from the Congo, below child-labor working situations that had been banned in Victorian Period UK. Opposite to the Institute for New Financial Pondering there is no such thing as a purpose to imagine the prices of wind generators will fall significantly. Any estimate of the price of hydrogen storage of electrical energy is pure guesswork.

Andrew Montford, Paul Homewood, and Francis Menton have additional feedback on these “empirically grounded forecasts.” See hyperlinks below Defending the Orthodoxy and Questioning the Orthodoxy.

********************

Twain Agrees: Meteorologist Cliff Mass has an amusing story about Mark Twain and his go to to Olympia, Washington, in 1895, which was engulfed in thick smoke when Twain was there to provide a speech. There may be nothing new about smoke generated by wildfires within the Pacific Northwest. What’s new is a “let it burn” coverage which has taken over from a coverage of fireside suppression that lasted about 50 years. See hyperlink below Altering Climate.

********************

Virginia Power Plan, 2022: On behalf of SEPP, very long time resident of Virginia Ken Haapala submitted feedback on the brand new Virginia Power Plan. The feedback embody:

“Virginia’s 2018 vitality plan was aligned with the California’s net-zero plan. Certainly, laws was handed stating that Virginia would comply with the appointed bureaucrats of the California Air Sources Board (CARB) within the sale of latest vehicles. CARB has banned the sale of latest gasoline powered vehicles by 2035 with the part out starting in 2026. It is a complete abrogation of legislative duty of Virginia authorities to out-of-state bureaucrats with no accountability to the residents of Virginia.”

Worse, the 2020 Virginia Clear Financial system Act requires the state to switch all fossil gasoline generated electrical energy with renewable vitality by 2045. The legislature and the governor had no understanding of what’s required to switch fossil fuels and the price of such motion.

Many Virginia politicians discuss of high-tech manufacturing resembling laptop chips. Laptop chip manufacturing requires 100% dependable electrical energy inside very tight tolerances for 4 to eight weeks, relying on the complexity of the chip. A slight hic-up and all the manufacturing line (one to 2 months of product) is misplaced. Wind and photo voltaic can’t present dependable electrical energy.

The feedback conclude:

“There isn’t a demonstration that wind, photo voltaic, and storage can ship the dependable and reasonably priced electrical energy inside tight tolerances civilization wants. Persevering with to imagine they do is a waste of sources.

“There isn’t a vitality disaster and no local weather disaster. The fashions use to declare a local weather disaster are extremely flawed and unfit for predictions.

“Virginia Power Plan, 2022 is a stable substitute for Virginia Power Plan, 2018 which contained a number of false beliefs. It advantages the residents of Virginia with lifelike crucial considering somewhat than desires.”

As of but, the complete feedback haven’t been posted on the federal government web site however needs to be inside just a few days: https://townhall.virginia.gov/L/feedback.cfm?GeneralNoticeid=2442

********************

Variety of the Week: Lower than 0.2°C, 0.4°F: Within the chapter “Pit Vipers”of Snakes – a pure historical past for the British Museum (Pure Historical past) there’s a dialogue on the precision of pit vipers utilizing delicate senses of their pits. The dialogue contains the next sentence:

“Experiments have proven that pit vipers, disadvantaged of their senses of sight and scent, can strike precisely at transferring objects which might be lower than 0.2°C hotter than their environment.”

In accordance with analysis on ocean sediments, within the over 20 million years since pit vipers advanced, the earth’s environment has had CO2 concentrations as much as 800 components per million, which is twice that of as we speak. But pit vipers have thrived regardless of the nice variations in CO2 as a result of have lengthy taken benefit of the “atmospheric window” the place greenhouse gases don’t affect the lack of floor warmth, infrared radiation, to house. But, local weather alarmists don’t acknowledge the “atmospheric window.” See hyperlinks below Altering Seas and Different Information that Could Be of Curiosity.

Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?

Refutation of the Forgotten-Sunshine Idea

By Joe Born, WUWT, Sep 12, 2022

Rebuttal: Local weather F-Phrases

By Roy Spencer, His Weblog, Mar 22, 2028

Spencer’s rebuttal concludes: “However nowhere does the sensitivity of contemporary 3D local weather fashions rely on any suggestions equations.

“Now, if I’ve misrepresented Lord Monckton’s argument, I apologize. However I’m having issue figuring out precisely what his argument is, and the way it impacts the processes laid out in local weather fashions. Possibly somebody may also help me. We will agree that the fashions are too delicate, however we should be sure that our arguments for his or her extreme sensitivity make sense, or we’ll proceed to be dismissed out of hand by the mainstream local weather neighborhood.”

Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf

Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019

http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Obtain with no cost:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Local weather-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Quantity-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Obtain with no cost:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

World Sea-Stage Rise: An Analysis of the Information

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Temporary, Could 20, 2019

Difficult the Orthodoxy

Interview with William van Wijngaarden

By Jan van Friesland, CLINTEL.org, Accessed Sep 7, 2022

2n-Stream Radiative Switch

W. A. van Wijngaarden &  W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, June 1, 2022

https://wvanwijngaarden.data.yorku.ca/recordsdata/2022/09/Arxiv-June-1-2022.pdf?x45936

Rethinking The Greenhouse Impact

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Sep 16, 2022

RELATED ARTICLES

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

- Advertisment -
Google search engine

Most Popular

Recent Comments