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A dry Pacific Northwest in July and August is the conventional state of affairs, however this yr was notably arid.
Some media shops have claimed that is Seattle’s or the area’s driest summer season on report. Is that true?
Let’s discover out.
At Seattle’s SeaTac Airport, this summer season (June 21-September 21) was the driest in a report doing again to the late Nineteen Forties (.50 inches). 2017 was proper behind (.52 inches).
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What a few close by station with an extended report (Kent), going again to 1912? That’s proven under with a pattern line. 2022 was the driest summer season on report however some got here shut within the 1925-1945 interval. The pattern exhibits a slight decline (perhaps a half-inch) over 110 years. The very small long-term pattern will develop into necessary.
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What about east of the Cascades? That is necessary due to the agriculture there and the frequent wildfires. A distinct story from the west.
Spokane (going again into the late 1800s) was dry however six different years had been drier.
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And Kennewick, additionally with a report going again into the late 1800s, was not exceptionally dry in any respect, with 29 years extra arid.
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So what can we conclude? Western Washington was exceptionally dry this summer season. The driest on report for a lot of stations. However there’s solely a minimal pattern towards extra dryness west of the Cascade crest. Japanese Washington had a dry yr, but it surely wasn’t distinctive.
Let me stress, there’s solely a slight pattern towards drier summers in our area.
That’s necessary, as a result of if local weather change is the reason for the dry situations you’d count on to see a long-term pattern. If a really dry summer season like this yr was attributable to local weather change, there could be a long-term pattern in the direction of a lot drier summers. There is not.
What do local weather fashions counsel? Right here on the UW we’re working high-resolution regional local weather fashions pushed by a set of world local weather fashions. That is the gold customary of such work.
Right here is the prediction for summer season precipitation (on this case June-July-August) for Seattle and Pasco pushed by a VERY aggressive enhance of greenhouse gases (the RCP 8.5 situation) for 1970-2100. Local weather fashions counsel VERY little change in summer season precipitation via 2022 for both station. For Seattle, there’s a slight decline in precipitation by 2100. Just about no change within the Columbia Basin.
So what do you have to conclude from all this?
We had a really dry summer season in western Washington. However there’s little total prolonged pattern, however loads of variability that’s in all probability pure in origin. That is supported by local weather mannequin simulations that present little change in summer season precipitation even with giant will increase in greenhouse gases.
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Atmospheric Sciences 101
Like final yr, I’m instructing atmospheric sciences 101: a common introduction to climate and local weather, this fall. You possibly can study extra in regards to the class on the class web site. I speak about the whole lot from the fundamentals of the environment to climate prediction, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and native climate to world warming and local weather.
I will probably be instructing the category in individual on the UW, however will even make it out there over zoom. Thus, of us can take it remotely.
If you’re over 60, you may take the category via the ACCESS program for a really nominal cost (one thing like $15). Final yr I had over 125 of us achieve this.
So in case you are a UW pupil trying to find out about climate or a non-student within the subject, I welcome you to hitch me this fall. My firstclass is on September twenty ninth.
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