Two social gathering leaders will each be on their knees this morning, earnestly providing up the identical plea to the heavens. “Please, please let there be no early Meeting election”.
Certainly one of them, Colm Eastwood, has no management over the matter. The opposite, Jeffery Donaldson, has solely to say the phrase for the present Meeting to proceed its full time period. However he’s tortured by the message of this ballot which tells him that Jim Allister could not enable him to say it.
And all due to the most recent Lucid Speak ballot within the Belfast Telegraph.
Sinn Féin 30% (up 1% for the reason that Meeting elections)
DUP 24% (up 3%)
Alliance 16% (up 2%)
SDLP 7% (down 2%)
UUP 11 % (No change)
TUV 6% (down 2%)
Inexperienced 2% (No change)
PBPA 1% (No change)
On the face of it, whereas the ballot clearly makes unwelcome studying for the SDLP, you may assume that the DUP had each purpose to be delighted. However not so.
They’ve reclaimed a minority of the voters that they misplaced to the TUV. However this nonetheless leaves Jim Allister with an efficient veto on the DUP’s room for tactical manoeuvre.
DUP hopes of taking again the First Minister place don’t relaxation on reclaiming votes from the TUV. Even when the TUV drops again to its 2016 or 2017 Meeting share it might not ship any additional seats to the DUP. I set out the explanations for this intimately on the finish this publish.
The DUP have to take 3 extra seats to overhaul SF, supplied SF lose none of their very own. This ballot means that the tide is operating fairly strongly towards them.
Technically the simplest achieve for the DUP can be if they might persuade Alex Easton to return to the social gathering in North Down. However since Easton is in a much better place as an Unbiased than he ever was as a DUP candidate, it’s arduous to see why he would need to give up these advantages. He has way more votes than he had earlier than – greater than 1,500 in extra of his final outing below DUP colors. He has misplaced some DUP voters it’s true, however his assist as an Unbiased is much extra broadly based mostly. Almost 4,300 of his Might tally got here from voters who subsequently transferred to UUP, Alliance, Inexperienced, Unbiased, SDLP or SF. In comparison with solely 464 final time. And he’s not beholden to any social gathering whip.
North Antrim gives the DUP with its greatest prospect of constructing a achieve. It will want a swing of not less than 0.4% from Alliance to DUP. (Only a reminder that after we discuss of a swing of 0.4% we imply the equal of 0.4% of the entire votes forged transferring from one social gathering to a different. On this case 180 voters switching from Alliance to the DUP.) Word that that swing must be along with any enchancment within the DUP vote on the expense of different unionists.
In Strangford a DUP achieve from Alliance would wish each a complete collapse within the TUV vote and a swing from Alliance. The TUV got here inside 250 votes of taking the ultimate seat, which went to the second Alliance candidate. The power of the TUV candidate’s efficiency means that if he stands once more he has a great likelihood of holding on to an incredible a part of that vote – even when the TUV vote collapsed elsewhere. However to take the Alliance seat the DUP would wish not solely a TUV collapse, but additionally a swing to it from Alliance of not less than 0.5%. Once more, that swing must be along with any beneficial properties that the DUP made on the expense of different unionists.
The Alliance uplift on this ballot means that in each of those constituencies the DUP probabilities of beneficial properties have gone backwards.
The following lowest swing required can be about 0.6% in West Belfast. However that’s a good larger stretch than it seems to be. Once more, it must be over and above any beneficial properties the DUP makes on the expense of different unionist. (The DUP obtained practically 90% of TUV transfers – so beneficial properties from that supply are irrelevant. It additionally gained – straight or by way of the TUV – round two thirds of the UUP vote. So once more, development from that supply hardly assist in any respect.) Except it may take share from PBPA or SF it’s destined to stay the runner-up. Since direct switches from both social gathering to the DUP are prone to be miniscule, the one means it might have the ability to take the PBPA seat can be to draw about 600 additional DUP voters to the polls (based mostly on Might’s turnout) – with out spooking increased nationalist or different turnout in response.
So, if Alliance, PBPA or SF voters haven’t swing to the DUP, can the social gathering take seats from the UUP? Sadly for the DUP, in these seats that the UUP maintain they’re very nicely dug in.
The closest likelihood for a DUP achieve on the expense of the UUP might be Strangford, the place the UUP divided its First Desire vote, value nearly an entire quota, between two candidates. If the TUV vote collapses however Alliance maintain their share (and therefore their second seat), a swing from the UUP of not less than 3.7% would award the UUP seat to the DUP. Once more, the swing must be over and above any beneficial properties the DUP constructed from the TUV. However, if the UUP ran only one candidate the swing required would rise to not less than 4.1%.
This ballot reveals the DUP as far-off as ever from the type of swing wanted to take UUP seats.
So, making the three beneficial properties required to overhaul SF can be very robust. And that’s earlier than remembering how susceptible the DUP is in Foyle. A tiny swing of 0.1% from DUP to UUP is all that’s required to tip the DUP seat to UUP.
This ballot means that the DUP might nonetheless be susceptible in Foyle.
The opposite a part of the equation is the variety of beneficial properties or losses SF may make.
They’re most susceptible in Fermanagh South Tyrone. A swing from them to the SDLP of as little as 0.04% might price them a seat there. Alternatively, a swing to Alliance of not less than 3.9% from a mix of the SDLP and UUP might put their third seat in jeopardy.
A 3.2% swing to Alliance largely from a mix of UUP and SDLP might give Alliance the final seat in West Tyrone. If the TUV as soon as once more come runner up, then the Alliance achieve would come on the expense of the SDLP. If nevertheless a lot of the TUV vote reverts to the DUP then the third SF candidate might lose their seat as a substitute, if the next proportion of unionists continued transferring past unionist candidates.
This ballot means that SF can be secure in FST. The Alliance problem can be very robust in West Tyrone, however the SDLP are in all probability at larger threat there than SF.
Elsewhere SF seats are safe from any possible stage of swing towards them.
To make beneficial properties they would wish a swing from Alliance to SF of not less than 0.4% in Higher Bann and 1.2% from the SDLP in East Londonderry. After that it will get harder.
This ballot means that an SF achieve in Higher Bann isn’t possible, however that SF could possibly be competing with Alliance for the SDLP seat in East Londonderry.
Away from the Sinn Féin/DUP battle Alliance might be happy with this ballot. They’ve numerous fairly marginal seats which a 2% share enhance would defend. They might additionally hope to select up a few beneficial properties – in all probability from the SDLP.
LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS
It should be emphasised that that is an Meeting ballot – and to some prolong folks vote otherwise in council elections – notably for Independents. Additionally, notably in style native councillors can outperform their social gathering’s regular stage of assist. However, taking a look at modifications in social gathering assist in every constituency between the final Native Authorities elections and the current Meeting election, it’s potential to kind a common image of the threats and alternatives every social gathering might be going through.
When these have been final fought in 2019 the DUP have been the strongest social gathering with 123 Councillors elected. SF took 105, the UUP 75, SDLP 59 and Alliance 52.
Additionally elected have been 8 Inexperienced, 7 TUV, 5 PBPA, 3 PUP, 1 Aontú and 1 Cross-Group Labour. There have been 23 Independents.
The leads to every Meeting constituency in Might recommend that at that time Sinn Féin have been extra prone to seize probably the most seats. All however about 3 of their 105 seats regarded prone to be secure, and so they seemed to be in competition for a potential achieve in about 24 others.
Alternatively, solely about 104 of the DUP seats appeared secure, with 19 or so below risk and solely 6 the place they’d be competing for a achieve. This ballot means that the social gathering might maintain on to a great variety of the threatened seats.
Each the SDLP and UUP have been going through the prospect of great losses. Greater than a 3rd of the SDLP’s seats (about 22) have been within the hazard zone and this ballot recommend that extra may have moved into it, with just one apparent likelihood of a achieve. Equally, the UUP could possibly be in difficulties in about 20 seats, with just one chance of a achieve.
Alliance would emerge because the third social gathering. None of its seats appeared below risk and there have been about 19 the place it could possibly be in competition for beneficial properties – once more this ballot means that the variety of alternatives could possibly be increased.
If the TUV held on to the progress it had made in Might it might be concentrating on as much as 17 beneficial properties. Nevertheless this ballot means that their ambitions could need to be extra restricted.
The image was much less promising for the Greens and PBPA. 2 Inexperienced seats have been below risk and three PBPA.
To be clear once I describe a seat as ‘not secure’, ‘below risk’ or related I’m not predicting their loss, merely that the social gathering can not depend on retaining them. Equally, ‘potential beneficial properties’ won’t all be realised. Certainly, in some circumstances there could also be two events competing for a single seat that one other is defending.
Why taking votes again from the TUV doesn’t give the DUP additional Meeting seats
In 5 constituencies the TUV candidate was the runner-up. Even when all of their votes had gone to the DUP it might have merely meant {that a} DUP candidate would have been the runner-up as a substitute.
In one other, the TUV candidate was eradicated when there was no different unionist candidate left. Allocate the TUV votes to a different DUP candidate and the top end result would have been the identical.
In North Antrim the second TUV candidate was eradicated on the identical depend because the SDLP so exact calculations can’t be made however an affordable estimate means that the majority of TUV transfers went to the DUP – which nonetheless misplaced a seat.
Within the remaining 11 constituencies, a big majority of the TUV votes ended up with the DUP anyway – by transfers. The TUV obtained 29,299 First Desire votes supplemented by 4.033 transfers. The DUP took 68% of these again when the TUV was eradicated, with 12 % going to the UUP, and a couple of% every to Unbiased unionist, nationalist and others; whereas 4,418 (13%) weren’t transferred. In none of those constituencies would the absence of a TUV candidate have given the DUP an additional seat.
Hopes for DUP seat beneficial properties dangle solely on the social gathering gaining share – and therefore seats – on the expense of different events.
Michael Hehir is a retired gross sales and advertising and marketing supervisor. He studied in Northern Eire however now lives between England and Italy.
