By Mark Krebs — January 11, 2023
“My main argument: any deliberate transition to an all-electric renewable vitality monoculture is prone to fail, a minimum of in America. That’s primarily as a result of peak winter heating necessities can enormously exceed peak summer time cooling necessities by as a lot as 400 to 500 % in chilly climates and since the required minerals are severely restricted.”
On August 27, 1997, the Cato Institute revealed “Renewable Power: Not Low-cost, Not ‘Inexperienced’,” written by Robert L. Bradley Jr. (A 58-page PDF of the research is offered right here and a 25th anniversary assessment right here.) Bradley’s piece targeted on the numerous stark ecological tradeoffs of politically favored renewables, in addition to the excessive price/low worth related of dilute, intermittent sourcing. This publish extends that pondering to the deep decarbonization/all-electrification authorities program.
Uncommon earth minerals, on which the compelled transition to “clear vitality” relies upon, are critically constrained by most of the similar components as fossil fuels. Provides of those minerals are dominated by regimes with intent to domesticate and exploit our rising dependency on them. As these uncooked supplies are extracted and the strategic dominance of China will increase, costs could have a premium that can impression customers. Discovering and growing provide chain options may even convey elevated vitality expenditures essential to safe and course of these uncommon earth minerals. This may lower ostensible environmental advantages from “inexperienced vitality.”
One new supply of provides for uncommon earth minerals and different strategic supplies quickly gaining curiosity is seabed mining. Nonetheless, this may occasionally result in a remedy that’s worse than the supposed illness of anthropogenic international warming (AGW). In that case, the claimed “greenhouse fuel” (GHG) reductions achievable by the coerced “transition” to “clear (renewable) vitality” are, at a minimal, considerably decreased relative to the fossil fuels they intention to supplant.
The aim of this two-part publish is to revisit a number of the bodily realities related to uncooked materials acquisition for a centrally deliberate “clear” vitality transition. In brief, the prospects are poor. “Betting the farm” on it taking place as deliberate is problematic at finest. Nonetheless, earlier than we get “into the weeds” of those issues, let’s briefly revisit the economics and physics difficult this transition to so-called “clear vitality.”
Peak Heating Demand
My main argument: any deliberate transition to an all-electric renewable vitality monoculture is prone to fail, a minimum of in America. That’s primarily as a result of peak winter heating necessities can enormously exceed peak summer time cooling necessities by as a lot as 400 to 500 % in chilly climates and since the required minerals are severely restricted.
Regional climate variations are pictorially proven by Nationwide Facilities for Environmental Info maps of Heating and Cooling Diploma Days. However vitality supply programs have to be sized for worst-case climate situations that don’t present up in averages. A primary instance of such worst-case situations are “polar vortex” occasions.
To get a primary appreciation of those points (however not essentially worst-cases), take into account a home with:
- a thermostat set at sustaining 80 deg. F in the summertime with a worst-case peak summer time temperature of 110 deg. F.
The ensuing temperature variations between the within and the skin are 80 deg F. within the winter and 30 deg. F in the summertime. Dividing the temperature variations of 80 (winter) by 30 (summer time) yields a ratio of two.6 (2.6 instances extra vitality for heating relative to cooling). Additional rising the ratio of winter heating hundreds versus summer time are the utility planning wants for satisfactory security margins, system redundancy, and so on.
Most winter heating necessities within the U.S. are served by the direct use of fossil fuels (primarily pure fuel) in furnaces and boilers. The Biden Administration has focused for elimination these workhorses as a part of the general “transition” to an all-renewables future.
Additional take into account the issues of serving two-to-three instances the electrical load with intermittent renewables which can be inherently unreliable with out some form of back-up. How a lot, how lengthy, what type?
Some Background
To contractually assure availability, renewables could have to be backed-up, both by fossil-fueled era and/or batteries. At a ratio of 1 kW of fossil-fueled energy backup per kW of renewable era, 2 to three instances extra capability turns into 4 to six instances. And this doesn’t take into account the extra electrical era necessities wanted to concurrently transition plan from fossil-fueled autos to electrical, which may enhance current electrical energy wants by a minimum of 100%.
Some declare changing the current US fleet with electrical autos would require 2 to three instances extra era. Additionally word that batteries for EV’s will seemingly compete with stationary batteries for wind and photo voltaic back-up. Such components would enhance battery prices.
Large, however geographically dispersed, renewable era will want equally large investments in electrical transmission and distribution programs. Moreover, such more and more dispersed and intermittent renewable programs will change into exponentially harder to handle, particularly as conventional, dispatchable energy programs decline. (For extra details about the complexity of including renewables to the grid, see FERC orders reliability requirements, registration necessities for wind, photo voltaic, storage to guard the grid.)
As for deciding what sort of back-up, the most affordable type of readily dispatchable fossil-fueled back-up for renewables is often natural-gas-fueled combustion generators, coupled with warmth restoration steam boilers powering steam generators (aka., “combined-cycle” programs, abbreviated as NGCC). These are about 66% environment friendly within the latest purposes. Compared, pure gas-fueled residential furnaces will be 80 to 95% environment friendly.
Nonetheless, standing in the best way of combined-cycle backup programs is that electrical utilities will be among the many first curtailed from pure fuel provides throughout extreme chilly climate emergencies, just because extraordinary customers are curtailed final. This downside will be overcome if electrical utilities pay to order pipeline capability or if customers are weaned off the direct use of pure fuel. The latter appears the path that the Biden Administration’s electrification insurance policies are headed. Nonetheless, some preserve the Administration is aiming to eradicate fuel era as effectively. In that case, the excessive performing NGCCs haven’t any place in any respect.
Conversely, we will simply chalk-up, as collateral injury within the conflict in opposition to carbon with a whole lot of deaths right here and there, at times from freezing because of polar vortex occasions (like they did in Texas from the February 2021 Winter Storm Uri).
Batteries to the Rescue?
If battery back-up programs are the one sort allowed (as environmentalists want to dictate), take into account that:
- Wind droughts can final every week or extra.
- Daylight upon photovoltaic programs will be blocked by snow and ice for so long as it takes for one thing to bodily take away them.
- volcanic eruptions and forest fires can and do restrict incoming photo voltaic radiation for even longer durations.
How a lot time ought to battery back-up programs be wanted for worst-case situations is equally debatable. Some folks preserve every week is satisfactory, whereas some argue planning for 3 weeks or extra of renewable era downtime. Professor Michaux’s (launched shortly) is one these arguing for 3 weeks or extra.
If the worst-case interval is every week, that’s 168 hours. Most battery storage programs are solely rated for 4 hours of full load output earlier than they have to be recharged. Thus, getting by only a week of renewable era down-time with 4-hour rated battery modules signifies a necessity for 42 kW of batteries per kW of renewables (168/4), at a minimal.
These calculations make a BIG assumption: They assume that wind and/or photo voltaic era has enough durations of extra capability to maintain the battery programs absolutely charged for while you want them. All types of electrical era have “capability components.” Wind and photo voltaic capability components are within the vary of 25% (or much less). Given there are 8,760 hours in a yr, then you possibly can solely depend on 2,190 hours (or much less) of precise era. What occurs in the event that they don’t have sufficient time to generate and retailer their very own battery back-up (e.g., reoccurring wind droughts)? You guessed it! You’re nonetheless in danger for working out of electrical energy.
Battery back-up programs additionally undergo from cold and warm climate extremes. Simply learn the proprietor’s guide that got here together with your cordless drill to confirm this. So how one can preserve satisfactory temperatures? Fuel warmth?
If enough technological breakthroughs happen to resolve these battery physics issues, there are nonetheless main issues with securing the uncooked supplies wanted for this “transition.” Not the least of which is that China has largely monopolized most of those strategic supplies. That is a minimum of partly as a result of over-regulation of mining within the U.S., which China is exploiting. However even China could have issues supplying these strategic supplies over the long term, particularly if the environmental impression prices are internalized (e.g., carbon import tariffs).
Half II Tomorrow
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Mark Krebs, a mechanical engineer and vitality coverage marketing consultant, has been concerned with vitality effectivity design and program analysis for greater than thirty years. He has served as an skilled witness in dozens of State vitality effectivity proceedings, has been an advisor to DOE and has submitted scores of Federal energy-efficiency filings. His many MasterResource posts on pure fuel vs. electrical energy and “Deep Decarbonization” federal coverage will be discovered right here. Mark’s first article was in Public Utilities Fortnightly, titled “It’s a Conflict Out There: A Fuel Man Questions Electrical Effectivity” (December 1996). Just lately retired from Spire Inc., Krebs has shaped an vitality coverage consultancy (Fuel Analytic & Advocacy Companies) with different veteran vitality analysts.
