Please be aware: Tropical Storm Ian is extremely unlikely to have direct impacts on Texas, apart from some coastal swells later subsequent week. In truth, a fairly sturdy chilly entrance stays on observe for Houston on Monday, bringing cooler and far drier air—dewpoints within the higher 40s, anybody?—into the area for many of subsequent week. Nevertheless, we proceed to get questions on Ian, and with NASA’s Artemis I mission on the launch pad in Florida I assumed it prudent to supply an up to date forecast on the storm.
What we all know
As of late Saturday morning, Tropical Storm Ian nonetheless has not developed a nicely outlined middle of circulation and has a vertical construction that’s tilted. This implies the storm continues to be struggling to get organized. Nevertheless that might quickly change, as wind shear close to Ian lessens and the storm passes over very heat waters within the Caribbean Sea. Our greatest approach to measure that is by way of a variable referred to as “tropical cyclone warmth potential,” which measures not simply the ocean floor temperature, however the depth of this heat water, which is vital as a tropical system churns up water from beneath. A price above 80 is conducive for intensification. With values of 100 to 120 in Ian’s path, the storm is poised for speedy intensification through the subsequent two days if it could align its inside core. Almost definitely, Ian can be a hurricane on Monday because it approaches Cuba.
We are also pretty assured in Ian’s observe by way of Monday, because it ought to cross to the south of Jamaica after which flip northwest towards the western fringe of Cuba. It ought to then emerge within the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening or Tuesday morning. At this level I believe it is going to most likely be far sufficient west of the Florida Keys to spare these islands the worst results, however I’m not ready to ensure that.
What we don’t know
Sadly, after Monday evening there may be lots of uncertainty within the observe forecast for Hurricane Ian. One of many causes for it’s because the middle, as but, lacks definition. The fashions are scuffling with its start line, and this results in large variances in its place three to 5 days from now. Nevertheless, there was a transparent pattern over the past 24 hours through which Ian’s observe has steadily shifted west, such that the Nationwide Hurricane Middle’s greatest observe (at 10am CT Saturday) lies on the japanese aspect of the mannequin steering.
It stays believable that Ian might make a landfall wherever from southwestern Florida to southeastern Louisiana subsequent week, and these areas ought to completely stay vigilant. However right now the most definitely location is someplace between Destin and Tampa, Florida. Till the middle is healthier outlined, and the fashions are extra coherent, nice uncertainty will stay. This example ought to get higher through the subsequent 24 hours assuming that Ian’s construction improves, and the forecast fashions ingest information being gathered by NOAA plane flying within the storm’s neighborhood as we speak.
As for the Artemis I mission, NASA has canceled a deliberate launch try on Tuesday, September 27. It has additionally delayed a choice on whether or not to roll the rocket again into the Car Meeting Constructing (the place it might safely journey out a hurricane) till Sunday. That is prudent, given Ian’s slower motion. At this level I believe there’s a fairly respectable probability that will probably be secure for the rocket to stay on the launch pad, preserving a launch alternative on October 1 or 2. The forecast ought to be clearer by Sunday, when NASA goals to make this roll again determination.
