Visitor Humor by Dr Alan Welch FBIS FRAS — 24 November 2022
COP100
Now COP27 is throughout, bar the shouting, a number of extra info and figures can be found to assist in predicting the way forward for this World Jamboree.
Two charts grew to become out there on the CarbonBrief website that confirmed the variety of attendees and the Overrun on the ultimate session. These have now been analysed and the findings proven under.
Whole Attendance.
The attendance figures had been extracted from the chart under.
Whole numbers, as much as COP26, had been transferred to an Excel spreadsheet and, like all Local weather Investigator price his salt, analysed Quadratic Curve by making use of a.
Projecting the quadratic curve to COP27 provides an attendance of slightly below 30 thousand in contrast with an precise determine of about 33 thousand. Not dangerous!
Projecting to COP100 leads to almost 413 thousand attendees. I believe Greta Thunberg can be attending, on the age of 92, and can give a serious speech entitled “Blah Blah Blah …100 instances… Blah Blah Blah). The projection is proven under
The “acceleration” of attendees is 87 attendees/yr2.
Remaining Session Overrun
Turning to the overrun figures the info as much as COP26 is proven under.
Once more, the figures had been put right into a spreadsheet and provides
and
Projecting the Quadratic Curve to COP27 provides an overrun of about 33 hours in contrast with an precise determine of about 36 hours. Once more, not dangerous.
The overrun at COP100 is predicted to be 199 hours (1 week, 1 day and seven hours) and the “acceleration” is 0.025 Hours/yr2 (90 seconds/ yr2).
Conclusions.
The graphs are so much like Nerem’s Sea Degree predictions [ see here and here ] they should be true!!!
The organisers of COP100 should present 10 instances extra parking spots for personal jets and almost an infinite provide of robust espresso.
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Remark by Kip Hansen:
Alan Welch has produced a few posts analyzing Sea stage Rise Acceleration claims [.pdf] popping out of the ocean stage group headed by R.S. Nerem on the College of Colorado, Boulder. Hyperlinks to Dr. Welch’s posts are within the Conclusions above.
For these of you who generally tend to take issues too significantly, please notice that this put up is supposed as humor.
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