The Nice Warmth Wave Dilemma Defined, Plus the Finish of the Warmth Wave in Sight.

My podcast at this time is all about warmth waves.

Let’s begin with the good warmth wave dilemma that’s by no means correctly defined within the media:

The Northwest is slowly warming from human-caused local weather change however excessive warmth waves are NOT growing in our area.

How can that be?

First, let me show it.

Listed below are the summer time (July-August) temperatures over Washington State for the previous fifty years.  A rise of about 2F over the interval.

A few of this could possibly be pure or the results of urbanization/instrument modifications, however a lot of most of it may effectively be from human-forced local weather change.  

With warming over the interval, the frequency of getting above some threshold like 80 or 90F is growing.  The Seattle Occasions did a warmth wave story just a few days in the past and confirmed this (see beneath from the ST).   As anticipated, in Seattle there are extra days above 90F as we slowly heat.

However then the Seattle Occasions reveals a plot of file day by day temperatures in July for Seattle (see beneath)….and there’s little or no upward pattern!   How may this be?

Simply to test on the Seattle Occasions… I did the identical factor for July and August over the previous 50 years, plotting the warmest noticed temperature at each SeaTac and  Pasco (see beneath). 

 Hardly any change within the excessive excessive temperatures every year at both website.  No long-term pattern….and you’ll count on a pattern if world warming was necessary for the intense warmth waves!

My podcast reveals the reply to this dilemma.   Pure variability…pure causes…dominate excessive warmth waves, with world warming having solely a really minor impact.   Excessive warmth waves in our area can convey temperatures 30-40F above regular, and 1-2 F from world warming is within the noise degree.

My podcast additionally talks in regards to the massive cool-down approaching Monday.  Sure, we must get by Saturday and Sunday, however on Monday a potent upper-level disturbance will come by and temperatures will drop into the 70s that day–with clouds and even some showers.

After that, no main warmth wave is in sight!

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