A LAB lead various from 1% to 14%
It is vitally laborious to attract any conclusions from the newest polling seen within the Wikipedia desk above. The rationale, after all, is the very extensive variations the varied corporations are displaying.
We’ve got the UK’s most established pollster, Ipsos, which nonetheless makes use of the cellphone, reporting a 14% LAB lead whereas YouGov’s newest has it at 1%. One factor we’re not seeing is “herding”.
I’ve been writing about polling for almost twenty years and I can’t recall one other interval when there was a lot variation. I can’t provide a proof
The Tory complete appears comparatively settled however the huge variation comes with LAB the place we now have figures from 37% to 44% being reported.
No matter by my calculations all of the polls are pointing to Keir Starmer turning into PM. Whether or not there’s a majority or not is a special matter
Mike Smithson
