Because the Wikipedia ballot desk reveals there was no restoration within the Tory polling place since Johnson determined to throw within the towel and step down as PM.
However might that change as we get past September sixth which is when the brand new chief will begin. The earlier expertise is that new leaders can get a big polling bounce.
These of us who’ve been round lengthy sufficient will bear in mind what occurred when Gordon Brown changed Tony Blair in June 2007. LAB made a marked restoration within the polls that was solely misplaced the next October when Brown blew it by not calling off plans for an early basic election.
At present odds with Smarkets you may get about 4 to 1 on September being the following month through which there will probably be a conservative ballot lead. I believe that may be a good guess.
Mike Smithson
