Supposedly, we’re quickly on our manner towards a zero-carbon, all electrical vitality future. However has anyone accomplished the arithmetic to see if this provides up?
I’m carving myself out a distinct segment because the man who does a couple of easy calculations to test if the grand schemes of our central planners make any sense. To date I’ve taken that method to the query of vitality storage to again up a wind/photo voltaic electrical energy grid, and on that one the schemes of the central planners most undoubtedly don’t add up. However the vitality storage query, though involving no math past fundamental arithmetic, does have some complexities. How about one thing considerably less complicated, like: If we convert our whole car fleet to all-electric automobiles, the place is the electrical energy going to come back from?
With the massive push presently on to do away with inner combustion automobiles and exchange them with electrics, certainly somebody has accomplished the calculations to make certain that the electrical energy provide will likely be ample. Really, that doesn’t look like the case. As soon as once more, the central planners do not know what they’re doing.
A number of issues within the current information make this subject extremely topical. First, within the days simply earlier than Christmas, a lot of the nation skilled a extreme chilly snap. Extreme, that’s, however not record-breaking. Virtually in all places that had very chilly temperatures throughout these days had had even colder temperatures prior to now, not essentially yearly, however a number of occasions over the course of many years. Second, a number of utilities discovered themselves with inadequate electrical energy to satisfy demand, and needed to impose rolling blackouts on their prospects, even within the face of freezing chilly temperatures. Examples of utilities imposing rolling blackouts throughout the extreme chilly wave included Duke Vitality (overlaying most of North and South Carolina, and components of Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky) and TVA (overlaying all of Tennessee and components of Alabama, Mississippi and Kentucky). Each of these utilities, and plenty of others, have spent the final decade and extra shuttering dependable coal energy crops, and constructing a number of wind generators and photo voltaic panels, together with some (however clearly not sufficient) pure fuel crops, as replacements.
As of at present, electrical automobiles are a tiny fraction of all automobiles (lower than 1% within the U.S., says Reuters as of February 2022), significantly in these Midwestern and Southern states. But even with solely the tiniest degree of electrical energy demand coming from electrical automobiles, already main utilities are in need of electrical energy when a not-out-of-the-ordinary chilly snap hits.
And now, the place are issues headed within the close to future? The Wall Avenue Journal had a giant piece with a January 1 date (it appeared within the print version on January 3) concerning the coming rush of electrical automobiles, headline “Shift to EVs Triggers Greatest Auto-Manufacturing facility Constructing Growth in A long time.” The gist is that the business is gearing as much as construct factories at a breakneck tempo for the upcoming provide of electrical automobiles for all. Excerpt:
The U.S. auto business is coming into one among its greatest factory-building booms in years, a surge of spending largely pushed by the shift to electrical automobiles and new federal subsidies aimed toward boosting U.S. battery manufacturing. By November, about $33 billion in new auto-factory funding has been pledged within the U.S., together with cash for the development of recent meeting crops and battery-making services, in line with the Middle for Automotive Analysis, a nonprofit group primarily based in Michigan. . . . The capital outlays quantity to a collective guess by the automotive business that consumers will embrace battery-powered fashions in numbers massive sufficient to help these investments. The worldwide auto business plans to spend a collective $526 billion on electrical automobiles via 2026, in line with consulting agency AlixPartners.
Whew! It’s the entire transformation of the business, from inner combustion engines to battery-electric. And should you have a look at the web sites of the producers themselves, they’re nearly all saying that they’re dedicated to the speedy conversion to electrical automobiles, with all internal-combustion manufacturing banished by some early date. Right here is GM on its “path to an all-electric future” (by 2035); and right here is Ford’s declare that it’s going to “lead America’s shift to electrical automobiles” (50% by 2030!). Quite a few different producers are making comparable claims.
OK, then, how a lot electrical energy is that this going to take? I’ll begin with this useful (if considerably sophisticated) chart from the U.S. Vitality Data Administration displaying manufacturing (by supply) and use (by sector) of all vitality within the U.S. for the yr 2021 (I don’t discover a chart for 2022 accessible as of but.):
Listed here are a couple of key quantity from this chart:
- The whole quantity of vitality consumed within the U.S. in 2021 is given as 73.5 quadrillion Btus.
- Of the 73.5 quadrillion Btus consumed, solely 12.9 quadrillion Btus was within the type of electrical energy. That’s solely 17.6% of whole vitality consumption.
- Virtually the entire electrical energy was consumed within the family, industrial and industrial sectors, and nearly none (lower than 1%) within the transportation sector.
- The transportation sector consumed 26.9 quadrillion Btus of vitality. That’s 37% of whole vitality consumption — and greater than double your entire quantity of electrical energy consumed in all sectors.
OK, however the transportation sector is much more than simply vehicles. It additionally consists of all the things from airplanes to freight trains to ocean delivery. What a part of that 26.9 quadrillion Btus of vitality within the transportation sector consisted of vehicles and light-weight vans (like SUVs and pick-ups) that are the issues which can be supposedly about to get electrified? Wanting round, I discover one thing known as the Transportation Vitality Knowledge Guide, put out by the Oak Ridge Nationwide Laboratory — one other half (just like the EIA) of the U.S. Division of Vitality. Listed here are two key info from the introductory “Fast Details” part: (1) “Petroleum comprised 90% of U.S. transportation vitality use in 2020,” and (2) “Vehicles and light-weight vans accounted for 62% of U.S. transportation petroleum use in 2018.”
Assuming that these percentages held roughly true for 2021, then automobiles and light-weight vans consumed roughly some 26.9 x 0.9 x 0.62 = 15.0 quadrillion Btus within the type of gasoline or diesel in 2021 — nicely greater than your entire quantity of vitality consumed within the nation in that yr within the type of electrical energy.
So have we now proven that changing all automobiles and light-weight vans to electrical would require greater than doubling the dimensions of our electrical energy technology system? Sadly, it’s not fairly that straightforward. There are a couple of different components that must be taken into consideration. Sadly, these further components usually are not topic to a substantial amount of precision, and may solely be pretty tough approximations:
- Electrical automobiles have about 85-90% effectivity in translating the saved vitality within the battery into motion of the automobile. That compares to solely about 15-25% effectivity of ICE automobiles. That may be a massive distinction.
- Nonetheless, two different components offset that benefit. One is that the batteries of electrical automobiles expertise an approximate 15% lack of cost within the turnaround between cost and discharge. The opposite is that the method of manufacturing electrical energy in an influence plant is within the vary of 35-50% environment friendly, relying on the kind of energy plant. A number of the newest energy crops even declare upwards of fifty% effectivity, however be aware that the EIA chart above reveals that the general effectivity of electrical energy manufacturing within the U.S. is 35% (which additionally consists of losses in transmission).
Put these components collectively, and right here is the calculation:
For an inner combustion automobile, should you begin with 10 Btus of vitality in gasoline, you get about 2 Btus of movement out of your automotive.
For an electrical automobile, should you begin with the identical 10 Btus of gas, you get 10 x 0.35 = 3.5 Btus of usable electrical energy, 3.5 x 0.85 = 3.0 Btus of electrical energy in your battery after charging losses, and three.0 x 0.87 = 2.6 Btus of movement out of your automotive.
So general, and remembering that that is approximate, an all-electric automotive and light-weight truck fleet can run on about three-quarters (2 divided by 2.6) the variety of Btus of vitality enter as can a comparable inner combustion-powered fleet. As an alternative of the 15 quadrillion Btus yearly that we use for our present ICE automobiles, we may theoretically get it right down to 11.25 quadrillion Btus, which might produce 11.25 x .35 = 3.93 quadrillion Btus of electrical energy to run the automobiles.
Recall that the present quantity of electrical energy produced yearly within the U.S., from the chart above, is 12.9 quadrillion Btus. So the extra 3.93 quadrillion Btus of electrical energy would symbolize roughly a 30.5% addition to the present capability of our electrical energy technology system.
Are there any plans afoot for something like that? Right here’s one other chart from EIA displaying their projections of progress in U.S. electrical energy technology capability out to 2050, from their 2022 Annual Vitality Outlook:
Mainly, after the present rebound from the 2020-21 Covid-induced decline, they venture 1% annual improve in consumption so far as the attention can see. The “excessive financial progress” and “low financial progress” situations don’t differ meaningfully from the median “reference” case. This progress consists of rising demand for all the things, together with from rising inhabitants and each type of new electrical gizmo that could be invented over the interval. And be aware that this projection, not less than for the sooner years, is basically primarily based on the plans of utilities so as to add capability — or not. And to the extent anybody is including capability, it’s more likely to be wind and photo voltaic, which will likely be fully ineffective for charging these automobiles on calm nights and plenty of different occasions.
So the place is the surge in technology capability to help a 30% or so further want for electrical energy to impress all automobiles? It positive doesn’t look to me like it’s there.
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