At present is an enormous day within the contest to decide on the subsequent CON chief and naturally subsequent prime minister. The 1922 committee of Conservative backbench MPs will probably be assembly later to resolve after which announce the assorted guidelines of the competition.
From studies that we’ve got the concept is to pay attention the primary a part of the method as a lot as doable in order that it’s absolutely full earlier than the Home of Commons rises for the summer season recess subsequent week. So we’re going to see various consecutive ballots of Conservative MP’s which can whittle the contenders right down to 2. These would be the names that can go to the Conservative Occasion membership in a postal poll.
One factor’s that’s clear is that that is extra open a contest than the final one in 2019 when the idea was that Johnson would get it virtually proper from the beginning.
Through the course of to pick out the chief the intention of Johnson is to hold on. It is likely to be that the 1922 committee has a view on that and we might see an interim CON chief and PM for the subsequent few weeks. I positioned a wager on the present deputy chief, Dominic Raab, being the subsequent PM some weeks in the past at lengthy odds within the expectation that this would possibly occur.
As little doubt PBers will get sick of listening to I’ve a £20 Ladbrokes subsequent PM wager on Sunak positioned in November 2019 at odds of 250/!.
Mike Smithson
