Visitor Publish by Willis Eschenbach
Effectively, the limitless curiosity of my monkey-mind led me to some attention-grabbing datasets over at KNMI. They’re a wide range of meteorological measurements made in Holland since 1964. I observed that they’ve international photo voltaic radiation information, so I plotted that as much as see the variations. I overlaid it with the CEEMD residual, which is what’s left after the varied cyclical variations have been eliminated. The CEEMD residual reveals the general development of the info. (For extra info on CEEMD evaluation see my put up “Noise-Assisted Knowledge Evaluation.)
Determine 1. Month-to-month Dutch photo voltaic radiation, January 1964 – January 2023
This was attention-grabbing. Photo voltaic ran about degree for about 5 years, decreased for some twenty years or so, after which elevated after that.
Subsequent, I seemed on the Dutch floor temperature, in the identical method.
Determine 2. Month-to-month Dutch floor temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Fig. 2 reveals a common sluggish rise in temperature over the interval in query.
Now, my alternative of those two datasets was not random. Do not forget that the central paradigm of recent local weather science is the very simplistic view that modifications in temperature are a linear perform of modifications in downwelling radiation.
Me, I believe that’s nonsense. I do know of no different advanced chaotic system with that type of easy enter/output relationship … however that’s what mainstream local weather science claims. I focus on this concept in my put up entitled “The Chilly Equations“.
So … right here’s the connection between photo voltaic radiation and temperature in Holland. In each instances, I’ve used the CEEMD residuals.
Determine 3. Month-to-month Dutch floor temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Hmmm … not precisely a linear relationship. It begins with photo voltaic radiation dropping and temperature rising … after which that relationship reverses.
Hmmm certainly.
Now, that is simply photo voltaic radiation. Sadly, the KNMI information doesn’t embrace downwelling longwave radiation. Nevertheless, we now have that information from the CERES dataset for the interval from March 2000 to February 2022. Over that point the downwelling longwave radiation in Holland decreased by -5.0 W/m2.
And this in flip provides an general (longwave + shortwave) sensitivity for that shorter time interval of … 0.1°C per W/m2 … go determine.
Can we draw any overarching international conclusions from this evaluation? No manner. It’s only one small nation … nevertheless, it does present that during the last ~60 years, there are various extra issues that have an effect on the temperature of Holland than simply downwelling radiation.
My greatest to all.
w.
My Ordinary Request: If you remark, please quote the precise phrases that you’re discussing. This avoids limitless misunderstandings.
