Stuart Campbell is again to running a blog about opinion polls as we speak, which – as inevitably as night time follows day – implies that he is trotted out some cynical lies. Happily, our much-requested Wings-Watch fact-checking service is available to set the report straight but once more.
As soon as once more we should begin with Campbell’s Lib Dem-style dodgy graph which falsely claims that help for independence has remained completely static on 47% since simply after the independence referendum. I’ve comprehensively debunked that graph many instances earlier than, nevertheless it appears to be like like I am going to simply must hold doing it once in a while, as a result of he is decided to deal with his readers with utter contempt by telling them the very same lie over and over and over. Beneath you will discover the true figures for independence help in latest instances, which as you may see truly present substantial modifications from yr to yr. The annual averages for typical polling are actually up to date with the ultimate common for 2022, which noticed Sure fall shy of the 50% mark by simply 0.2 proportion factors.
Yearly help for Scottish independence within the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey:
2014: 33%
2016 (a): 39%
2016 (b): 46%
2018: 45%
2020: 51%
2021: 52%
Common yearly help for independence in typical opinion polling:
2016: 47.7%
2017: 45.3%
2018: 45.5%
2019: 47.6%
2020: 53.0%
2021: 49.6%
2022: 49.8%
(For the sake of simplicity, the above figures use any ballot included in Wikipedia’s predominant checklist of independence polls. There are as much as 5 surveys for the Scottish Election Examine – two from 2022 and three from 2021 – that arguably must be in Wikipedia’s checklist however aren’t. Nevertheless, there could also be sound causes for excluding them which I am not conscious of, so I am going to simply stick to the checklist.)
By the way, there is not any alibi of ignorance for Campbell in repeating his discredited declare. He is nearly definitely seen the earlier posts during which I debunked his graph, as a result of he sometimes makes an attempt to go away feedback on Scot Goes Pop, and did in order not too long ago as two or three nights in the past. (The feedback are invariably abusive, so I have a tendency to go away them within the moderation queue.) Oh, and for his two adoring followers who tried to query my psychological stability this week due to what they appeared to suppose was my absurdly unbelievable declare that Campbell was making an attempt to go away nameless feedback and that I may inform it was him from his writing type – good strive, guys, however he freely confirmed his id within the last remark.
Not content material with only one dodgy graph, Campbell additionally presents us with a second, which purports to indicate that help for independence was round 24% in Might 2007 when Alex Salmond turned First Minister (though that was nearly three years after Mr Salmond began his second stint as SNP chief), rose to 50% by November 2014 when Mr Salmond handed over to Nicola Sturgeon, and barely declined to what seems to be round 48% or 49% in November 2022. The latter determine is an outright lie – each ballot performed in November 2022 had Sure over 50% as soon as Do not Is aware of have been excluded. Campbell cannot use the sleight of hand of claiming he left Do not Is aware of in, as a result of that will make a nonsense of the graph’s declare that Sure was on 50% in November 2014 – no ballot performed that month had Sure larger than 46% previous to the exclusion of Do not Is aware of. And chucking within the 24% determine from 2007 is a completely fatuous apples-and-oranges comparability, as a result of it comes from the Social Attitudes Survey, which can’t be in contrast with typical polling as a result of it makes use of a totally completely different methodology, together with a multi-option query format. It has all the time produced wildly completely different outcomes, and certainly wildly completely different yearly traits, from typical polling. If Campbell’s graph had been constant by following up the 2007 determine with the comparable Social Attitudes Survey outcomes from 2014 and 2021 (the latter being the latest survey), it might have proven an increase from 24% to 33% underneath Alex Salmond between 2007 and 2014, after which a good greater rise from 33% to 52% underneath Nicola Sturgeon between 2014 and 2021.
The opposite approach Campbell may have achieved consistency within the graph is by utilizing typical polling all through. That might have meant utilizing a far, far larger place to begin for Sure in 2007. A mean of TNS polls in 2007 had Sure on round 47% with Do not Is aware of excluded, or round 39.5% with Do not Is aware of left in.
Campbell generally kinds himself as a “journalist”, and certainly his supporters typically laud him to the skies as “the most effective journalist in Scotland”. Nicely, I might invite you to verify every part I’ve stated above. It is all within the public area and you can confirm that the factors I’ve made are correct. Then be trustworthy with your self about whether or not or not Campbell’s graphs might be thought of “journalism”. Should you suppose they will, I might gently counsel the one sort of “journalism” you may actually take into account is the grotesque parody of the occupation that has left the credibility of the mainstream Scottish media in tatters over latest years. The only goal of the graphs is to intentionally persuade folks {that a} lie is true. And, what’s extra, it really works. Many Wings readers recurrently parrot Campbell’s lies about polling as in the event that they have been indeniable gospel. I make no apology no matter for confronting Wings readers with the factual actuality – regardless that in some circumstances they actually, actually do not need to hear it.
