Neil Grey was considered one of Humza Yousaf’s keenest supporters in the course of the management race, which presumably meant he strongly shared the view that the SNP ought to “transfer down a gear” on independence and scrap Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for a de facto referendum. I’ve no thought whether or not he now accepts the logic for the partial U-turn that Yousaf has completed since then by devising the so-called “Schrodinger’s De Facto”, however however the above screenshot is the proper illustration of why it could be so silly for the SNP to sideline independence and attempt to tackle Labour purely on bread and butter issues, which has apparently been the cherished dream for therefore many Humza-supporting parliamentarians.
What’s the messaging right here? Labour is not providing actual change on 5 key coverage areas the place the SNP have delivered in Scotland, so…vote SNP in order that an SNP authorities may be elected at Westminster to do extra of these things? Nope, that does not make sense, everybody is aware of the SNP cannot kind a authorities at Westminster and are not all for becoming a member of a coalition authorities. (I distinctly keep in mind having my head virtually bitten off at a public occasion within the Traverse Theatre on the day of the 2015 normal election for suggesting that the SNP would possibly or ought to enter right into a formalised deal for governing with Ed Miliband.) Vote SNP in 2026 as a result of the SNP can kind a authorities at Holyrood and do good issues? Nicely, positive, however that does not reply the query of why anybody ought to vote SNP for Westminster in 2024. Vote SNP and we would have the ability to have a optimistic affect on authorities coverage from the surface? Hmmm. Possibly, however even leaving apart the truth that the SNP holding the steadiness of energy is an extended shot (maybe 1 in 20 at finest), you’d want a minority Labour authorities to take workplace to have any affect in any respect, through which case what the hell is the purpose of the binary-choice SNP v Labour messaging? It simply does not make any sense in any respect, and voters will know that. They will say that “it does not matter if SNP insurance policies are superior to Labour insurance policies, as a result of on the finish of the day Labour can kind a authorities and you may’t.” They could additionally level out that it’s kind of daft to place images of Humza Yousaf and Keir Starmer on the high of an SNP-Labour comparability graphic, on condition that Yousaf seems to be even much less in style with the general public than Starmer.
The SNP want an inspirational pitch that may compete with the readability of Labour’s “vote Labour on Thursday, and the Tories will probably be out of workplace on Friday”. Fortuitously, there may be such a pitch obtainable and it goes like this: “Labour supply no change in any respect. The actual change Scotland wants is independence. Vote SNP on Thursday to offer us a mandate for an unbiased Scotland, in order that on Friday we are able to begin negotiating an independence settlement with the UK Authorities, after which get on with the job of remodeling Scotland with the powers of independence.” Then you may get a listening to for all of your fantastic insurance policies on bread and butter issues (assuming they’re fantastic insurance policies), since you’re placing them strictly within the context of what you’ll do in an unbiased Scotland, thus permitting voters to see a reputable chain of occasions which means {that a} vote for the SNP in a Westminster election would (or no less than might) result in the specified insurance policies being enacted.
Since 2014, the independence motion has a proud historical past of discovering DIY options when the SNP management have proved poor, and I have been more and more questioning in current weeks if there’s a position for us right here. Being a part of the pro-independence different media typically seems like preaching solely to the transformed, which is why I’ve felt that essentially the most constructive factor I can do for now could be attempt to present to the various SNP members who learn this weblog that there’s sturdy polling proof that their occasion can be doing higher in the event that they changed Humza Yousaf as chief. It is most likely actually true that altering chief would have ten instances the optimistic impact that chapping on 1,000,000 doorways would have.
However we’re additionally in a completely unfamiliar scenario, as a result of the principle purpose the SNP are on a trajectory that might result in defeat by the hands of Labour is that independence supporters, and particularly independence supporters who have not modified their minds about independence, are drifting off to Starmer’s occasion. Is it simply potential that the pro-indy different media would have an opportunity of reaching a few of these folks and thus having a optimistic impact? We by no means had a hope in hell of persuading die-hard unionists to vote for pro-independence events, as a result of a) such folks do not learn our web sites, and b) to the restricted extent they do learn our web sites it is primarily to have a very good snicker at us. However independence supporters who used to vote SNP and have solely very lately switched to Labour are a really totally different kettle of fish. They could nicely give us a listening to and we would nicely have the ability to discover arguments that will persuade them.
I doubt if the common readership of Scot Goes Pop comprises many informal independence supporters who are actually planning to vote Labour. However these folks could also be a part of Fb teams with the extra hard-core independence campaigners, or have such campaigners amongst their buddies checklist on social media. I have been questioning increasingly more if I might play a small half by writing a sequence of articles setting out in concrete phrases how Labour are usually not providing a lot change from the Tory established order, how Keir Starmer is patently an untrustworthy and dishonourable man on condition that he has backtracked on all the key pledges he made when standing for chief, and the way independence moderately than Labour presents the one actual change. I might then must ask readers to share the articles with the Labour-curious independence supporters of their lives, in any other case they’d by no means attain the target market. I am unsure whether or not it could be finest to host these articles on a recent web site to keep away from the in-group nature of this weblog detracting from the message.
So that is what I am mulling over for my very own half, however what we actually want is an all-out, movement-wide effort to have interaction with switchers to Labour from our personal facet, to win them again, and to defeat Labour within the normal election. Name it the Sure motion’s equal of the Manhattan Mission – not within the sense of a mission attempting to explode Japan or wider human civilisation, however a full-blooded, completely dedicated push in the direction of a selected goal inside a restricted time period. We most likely have round a yr or fifteen months till the election, in order that’s how lengthy we have to show issues round. We’ve got the means to do it, however we have to discover the desire. I stated the opposite week that one of many semi-iron legal guidelines in politics is that divided events do not win elections – nicely, one other one is that events or actions which have misplaced the desire to win are inclined to lose. Proper now, the indicators are usually not good, judging by self-indulgences such because the SNP selecting Yousaf for factional causes after they knew rattling nicely he was much more unpopular with the general public than Kate Forbes, or a minority of supporters of smaller pro-indy events apparently telling themselves they will someway have achieved one thing vital in the event that they ‘goal’ significantly poor SNP MPs and get them changed by unionist MPs.
Labour can nonetheless be defeated in Scotland subsequent yr – however provided that we discover the desire.
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