By Andy Might
The SOHO Discussion board Debate started at 5:30PM (Central Time) on August 15, 2022 within the New York Sheen Middle, as I introduced right here. Koonin gained the Oxford Model debate since 25% of the in-person and on-line viewers shifted to his view that the controversy query: “Local weather science compels us to make massive and speedy reductions in greenhouse gasoline emissions” is a false assertion.
Right here I’ll lay out each Dessler’s and Koonin’s most vital arguments, for my part. Steve Koonin has generously given me his PowerPoint slides. I additionally requested Andy Dessler’s slides, however he didn’t reply to my request, if he does sooner or later, I’ll submit them and allow you to know. Steve Koonin’s slides might be downloaded right here. It is possible for you to to see the complete debate on YouTube earlier than the top of subsequent week, in all probability by August 24.
Dessler had seventeen minutes to make his preliminary argument that humanity does must make massive and speedy reductions in greenhouse gasoline (GHG) emissions. He first asserts that the estimated rise in international common floor temperature (GAST) of about one-degree C for the reason that 19th century is uncommon over geological time. The accuracy of proxy temperatures used for his GAST file and the temporal decision of temperature proxy reconstructions is very poor, so this form of “Hockey Stick” graph has little affect on me, and I believe on the remainder of the viewers. In any case, an increase of 1 diploma in 120 years just isn’t alarming.
His subsequent assertion is that photo voltaic and wind power can present many of the world’s power, he admits to a couple exceptions, such because the airline trade. He cites research that present the electrical grid might be modified to permit such intermittent sources of electrical energy effectively. He makes use of Texas for instance and factors out that these sources present many of the electrical era capability in Texas. He cites a examine that Texans save $20 million per day due to our use of photo voltaic and wind electrical energy era. Each Andy Dessler and I dwell in Texas. Whereas that is true, these sources not often work at capability, and once they fail as a consequence of hostile climate, as they did in February of 2021, the result’s catastrophic and lethal.
He additionally gives proof that wind and photo voltaic are the most affordable sources of electrical energy, later Koonin counters that these statistics don’t embrace the price of backup or electrical grid upgrades for these instances when the wind isn’t blowing at evening or on cloudy days. Koonin cites a Harvard Enterprise Faculty examine that places the price of the mandatory transmission upgrades alone, for america, at $2.4 trillion.
Lastly, Dessler gives a chart, with out numbers or backup, that claims all results of local weather change are adverse for humanity. All I may take into consideration as he mentioned the chart was: The place are the numbers? Is he speaking about GDP, lives misplaced, what’s the scale of his graph? For extra on this matter, see right here.
Subsequent it was Koonin’s flip. He counters that if we proceed utilizing fossil fuels, and if the IPCC local weather and financial fashions are right, progress of america financial system will solely lower by 4% for an additional warming of an unimaginable 5 C (9 F) by the top of the century. America financial system will proceed to develop by some 2% per yr all through this century, thus the financial system 70 years from now will probably be ~400% bigger if we one way or the other repair local weather change or ~384% bigger if we don’t, a barely perceptible distinction. There’s an identical story for the world financial system. See right here and right here for extra.
Koonin then notes that individuals are significantly better off once they use extra power. Within the fossil gas age, life expectancy, high quality of life, and actual earnings have elevated. Because of expertise and low cost power, our resilience to local weather change has elevated, and deaths and damages as a consequence of excessive climate have decreased.
Electrical energy reliability is essential, typically lives depend on electrical energy, and emergency backup mills are too costly for most individuals. The Federal commonplace for the majority energy system is 99.99% reliability, that’s an outage lower than one hour per decade. Koonin cites research that present the price of such a system for some widespread clear sources of electrical energy and finds that pure gasoline programs are the most affordable clear power supply, as proven in Determine 1, from his debate supplies.
So, whereas Dessler is right that photo voltaic and wind can produce electrical energy cheaper than fossil fuels underneath perfect circumstances, the associated fee to make that electrical energy dependable drives the full wind and photo voltaic value a lot greater. Different issues not correctly accounted for in wind and photo voltaic accounting are the land required for them and the price of excessive worth supplies, such a uncommon earth metals, lithium, copper, zinc, dysprosium, and plenty of others. Onshore wind energy era makes use of 9 instances extra of those supplies per megaWatt than pure gasoline. China accounts for many of the manufacturing of those important supplies, and a few of them are produced with slave labor.
Fossil gas use is commonly accused of inflicting deaths or shortening lives as a consequence of air air pollution. Does growing fossil use shorten human life Koonin asks? It seems not, he notes that whereas fossil gas use has elevated in India 700%, life expectancy has elevated by 16 years. China’s life expectancy has elevated by 10 years, despite the fact that their fossil gas use has elevated 600%. Fossil gas use will increase human wellbeing as proven in Determine 2, additionally from Koonin’s debate slides.
In Determine 2 we see that GDP per capita is very correlated with power consumption per capita. This shouldn’t be shocking to anybody, the extra power we use, the much less we should work and the better and safer our lives are. Discover the correlation is with power consumption, which matches up as out there power costs come down. If power is much less out there, much less dependable, or dearer consumption goes down, and human wellbeing deteriorates, a minimum of that portion of wellbeing that’s associated to GDP/capita. Sadly, Dessler and plenty of different advocates of the controversy assertion solely have a look at one aspect of the argument, they usually ignore the advantages of fossil gas use, warming, and further CO2.
Lastly, we point out Koonin’s closing assertion. Andy Dessler lent his identify to a shameless unScientific American article in 2021, the heading of the article is in one among Koonin’s slides and reproduced right here as Determine 3.
We count on this form of slanderous nonsense from the likes of Naomi Oreskes and Michael Mann, however for Dessler to take part is each shocking and disappointing. Additional, I learn and revered Scientific American as a toddler, as I’m certain a lot of you readers did as properly, it was as soon as a severe journal. Now, I see it because the journal equal of CNN or MSNBC. Nothing however opinion and yellow journalism.
The article in query doesn’t dispute any of the info or evaluation in Koonin’s very fashionable e-book Unsettled, though they make the try and refute what Washington Put up columnist Marc Thiessen wrote concerning the e-book. Even on this, they fail to land any punches.
Most telling is that after publishing this shameful hit piece, unScientific American refused to publish Koonin’s rebuttal to it. Clearly, I’ve no respect for unScientific American and it clearly has no respect for science. A really distasteful little bit of enterprise, however I’m glad Koonin introduced it up. For the file, Andy Dessler disavowed the article and apologized. This raised my opinion of him a number of notches. He is an effective scientist and has written some very attention-grabbing and useful articles, a minimum of for my part. He simply didn’t make nearly as good a case on this debate as Koonin did. Koonin had the proof and the numbers on his aspect, Dessler didn’t, and that decided the end result proven in Determine 4.
You need to have the ability to view the complete debate by August 24th, I’m advised, on YouTube. This submit is simply the highlights of the controversy from my viewpoint, there’s much more within the precise debate.
