There is a view that Boris Johnson should be on the ballot paper in this Conservative leadership election. What proportion of Party members agree? And what percetage would vote for him were they given the option?
If our panel of Party members is right, about a quarter want him on the ballot paper. And about a third would vote for him if they had the chance.
Yes, you read that correctly. A higher proportion of our panel would vote for him had they option of doing so than actually want him on the ballot paper. About nine per cent are saying: “we don’t want the option of voting for him, thanks. But were we to be given it, we would do so.” ‘Twas strange, ’twas passing strange; ‘Twas pitiful. ’twas wondrous pitiful…
Of course, that’s only one reading of these results. The crossover between those who don’t believe that Johnson shouldn’t be on the ballot paper and those who would nonetheless vote for him had they the option may be even higher. Have some misread the questions? Can others not quite make up their minds – even if they don’t mark themselves down as don’t knows?
I have no idea – but point out the simple fact that a quarter and a third are both sizeable minorities. This Johnsonian fifth, sixth or seventh column must bad news in this contest for Rishi Sunak, whose resignation helped to bring Johnson down, and good news, for Liz Truss, who stayed in post.
However, the opposite doesn’t necessarily follow. For while some Johnson supporters are blaming Sunak in vivid terms for bringing down their man, his opponents aren’t blame Truss in similar language for staying on in office.
Or such at least is my impression. Please note that earlier this month, YouGov found that a third of Tory members didn’t want Johnson to resign – a proportion in the same territory as our findings above and in another recent survey.
