Susan Crockford
There’s ample sea ice within the Bering, Greenland and Labrador Seas, though lower than regular within the Barents Sea as a result of sturdy winds drove the ice north. Any time there’s a bit much less sea ice than regular the catastrophists start caterwauling however this time the rhetoric is slightly totally different.
General
At 14 Feb 2023, courtesy NSIDC Masie
Fairly typical for this time of yr aside from the Barents Sea (extra particulars beneath) and the Gulf of St. Lawrence in japanese Canada (the place there are not any bears).
Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea
At 15 February 2023, courtesy Norwegian Ice Service
Robust winds–not melting ice–pushed ice north of Svalbard in direction of the pole and opened up a polynya north of Franz Josef Land brought on a report low for sea ice within the Barents Sea on 13 February:
Nevertheless, this “most open water” metric is meaningless for polar bears and different Arctic species. A polynya wherever within the Arctic at the moment of yr is a blessing for wildlife: open water means a uncommon feeding space for fish, birds, seals, and polar bears (Stirling 1997; Stirling et al. 1981).
New dominant narrative
As I famous on twitter yesterday, a brand new narrative is rising because the dominant clarification for what low sea ice means for polar bears, nudging you to count on extra polar bear assaults and drawback incidents, not declining numbers. It’s not a wholly new idea (I seen it first in 2013) however has taken some time to actually catch on:
Even Andrew Derocher is onboard:
“Poor ice circumstances for polar bears at Svalbard this yr. Low ice will make powerful searching circumstances this coming spring. Time to plan for extra human-bear conflicts until circumstances change.” [13 Feb 2023 tweet, my bold]
Down-side of wholesome polar bear populations
It appears these polar bear specialists right this moment are forgetting there’s a down-side to wholesome polar bear populations, as I wrote about a number of years in the past. As Inuit are discovering, extra bears means extra conflicts with people.
Partly, that’s as a result of impartial younger male polar bears (2-5 years) are much less skilled hunters and occupy the underside of the social hierarchy. Older, larger bears typically take their spring kills of younger seals away from them (Stirling 1974:1196) – doubtlessly leaving the youngsters with out sufficient fats to see them by means of till fall.
Extra hungry younger males coming ashore searching for meals is among the potential penalties of residing with a big, wholesome inhabitants of polar bears. Biologist Ian Stirling warned of such issues again in 1974:
“Dr. Stirling felt that full cessation of searching, similar to exists in Norway, might improve bear-man conflicts. Dr. Reimers replied that the cautious harvesting of polar bears was most likely fascinating, however the whole ban now in impact was largely an emotional and political resolution fairly than a organic one. Final yr 4 bears had been killed in self-defense.” [1974 PBSG meeting “Norway – progress reported by [Thor] Larsen”; Nameless 1976:11; my daring]
References
Nameless. 1976. Polar Bears: Proceedings of the fifth assembly of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN/SSC, 3-5 December, 1974, Le Manoir, St. Prex, Switzerland. Gland, Switzerland IUCN.
Stirling, I. 1974. Midsummer observations on the conduct of untamed polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Canadian Journal of Zoology 52: 1191-1198. http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/z74-157#.VR2zaOFmwS4
Stirling, I. 1997. The significance of polynyas, ice edges, and results in marine mammals and birds. Journal of Marine Programs 10: 9-21.
Stirling, I, Cleator, H. and Smith, T.G. 1981. Marine mammals. In: Polynyas within the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 45-58. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
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