La Nina, the periodic incidence of unusually cool floor waters over the central and japanese tropical Pacific, has a considerable however variable influence on Northwest climate.
Usually, La Nina brings wetter than regular and cooler than regular situations to the Northwest, usually with a wholesome native snowpack. Central and southern CA are sometimes dry.
However this yr La Nina seems to be following a distinct playbook, with Calfornia being pummelled with uber-moist storms. And La Nina is about to weaken quickly, with adjustments already occurring beneath the Pacific floor.
Right here is the newest map of Pacific sea floor temperature. You’ll be able to see the cool water close to the equator over the central/japanese Pacific,
However beneath the floor, temperatures have begun to heat quickly, one thing illustrated by the next chart, which shows the totally different from regular (the warmth anomaly) of the subsurface sea floor temperature.
NOAA and different organizations run pc forecast fashions that predict the way forward for tropical sea floor temperatures. Right here is the prediction of the tempeature anomaly (distinction from regular) for the Nino3.4 space within the central tropical Pacific for a set of many fashions. Nearly all are going for warming with an finish of La Nina by this spring,
NOAA’s local weather mannequin, the CFS, is doing the identical factor.
On account of all these forecasts, the NOAA/NWS Local weather Prediction Heart is predicting that the chance of La Nina drops to round 50% by February and much lower than in the course of the subsequent months.
