Dr. Susan Crockford
Svalbard remains to be ice-free this fall, which it has been relatively persistently for a minimum of ten years however the quantity of sea ice higher than ‘regular’ within the Jap Canadian Arctic at this date is one thing to behold. But opposite to predictions, polar bears in Svalbard are thriving.
Jap Canada
All of the darkish blue on the chart under reveals ‘a lot higher’ sea ice than standard in Hudson Bay and east of Baffin Island (in comparison with the long-term common for 1991-2020), suggesting situations extra just like the Nineteen Eighties for polar bears:
Certainly, extra ice goes all the best way up Davis Strait into Baffin Bay for this third week of November:
I couldn’t discover any archived ‘departure from regular’ charts I’d archived that had this a lot darkish blue in Davis Strait at this date. The closest I might discover was 2017, which was additionally a actually early freeze-up in Hudson Bay:
Oddly, 2018 was related for Hudson Bay however not Davis Strait:
Here’s what the regional ice chart for twenty-four November 2022 seems to be like:
For comparability, the identical week in 2016–the final time polar bears left the shore of Western Hudson Bay as late as the primary weeks of December:
For a similar week final yr:
Svalbard (Western Barents Sea)
Sea ice protection round Svalbard within the Barents Sea was the tenth lowest on file, which suggests there have been a few years with much less ice than this.
In comparison with different years, notice that this yr is about the identical as 2012 (when summer season ice hit a file low) however not the bottom this has been:
Polar bears that used to make maternity dens round Svalbard both den on the ocean ice or go to Franz Josef Land to the east, the place there was ample ice a month in the past: habitat all inside what’s formally the ‘Barents Sea’ subpopulation boundary.
Two weeks in the past (10 November 2022), sea ice had reached the north coast of Novaya Zemlya:
Outcomes of the annual survey accomplished this yr, mentioned right here, confirmed polar bears are nonetheless doing nicely regardless of about six instances as a lot sea ice loss as different Arctic areas. The bears know what to do, regardless of hand-wringing by one vocal specialist who thinks that ice situations as he knew them greater than twenty years in the past is how situations ought to stay perpetually or disaster will ensue.
Actually, a 2019 examine confirmed feminine bears round Svalbard have been thriving in recent times regardless of the dearth of “important” ice.
“Unexpectedly, physique situation of feminine polar bears from the Barents Sea has elevated after 2005, though sea ice has retreated by ∼50% for the reason that late Nineties within the space, and the size of the ice-free season has elevated by over 20 weeks between 1979 and 2013. These modifications are additionally accompanied by winter sea ice retreat that’s particularly pronounced within the Barents Sea in comparison with different Arctic areas” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]
References
Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, J.L., Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, B.M., Derocher, A.E., Welker, J.M. and Routti, H. 2019. Temporal developments of persistent natural pollution in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to modifications in feeding habits and physique situation. Environmental Science and Technology 53(2):984-995.
Associated
