I will be completely blunt about this – I am hopping mad that this publish has proved vital at this explicit second. Though I used to be underneath no illusions once I took on the Wings-Watch fact-checking service that I used to be prone to be known as into motion pretty continuously, I’d have hoped that on the day of the Supreme Courtroom ruling, of all days, those that self-identify as independence supporters may need been united in merely condemning the London authorities for his or her crackdown on Scottish democracy, and in getting ready for the essential plebiscite election marketing campaign forward. However, alas, Stuart Campbell as an alternative selected but once more to try to empty the morale of Sure campaigners with an obscenely deceptive graph which dishonestly purported to point out that public backing for independence has repeatedly remained static at 47% since 2016. His agenda in doing this may be described as anti-Sturgeon, or anti-SNP, or ‘revenge for no help within the Dugdale case’ or ‘revenge for gender self-ID’. However no matter his exact motives, they have completely zilch to do with the furtherance of the reason for independence.
In an effort to create the misunderstanding of fixed 47% help for Sure during the last six years, Mr Campbell seems to have cherry-picked simply 5 polls from the effectively over 100 which were performed throughout that interval. His standards for the cherry-picking was merely: a) any polls performed in the identical month of any given 12 months, and b) any polls that occurred to point out Sure on 47%. He wasn’t remotely bothered about discovering 5 polls that have been comparable with one another, as a result of he admits within the small print that they have been performed by no fewer than three totally different polling corporations – Panelbase, Survation and BMG. Absurdly, he leaves out 2018 and 2020 altogether, just because he could not discover any polls in April of these years with Sure on 47%! If it wasn’t so cynical, it will truly be downright comical.
The intention, in fact, is to provide the impression that the 5 polls are typical and consultant of independence polling in every year, and that Sure help has certainly been genuinely static. However nothing may very well be farther from the reality. For any Wings Over Scotland followers who’re truly excited by being acquainted with actual details (versus solely listening to distortions and lies meant to buttress a propaganda narrative that they could be solely too blissful to consider), be happy to learn on for a veritable feast of actual numbers, introduced actually.
Yearly help for Scottish independence within the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey:
2014: 33%
2016 (a): 39%
2016 (b): 46%
2018: 45%
2020: 51%
2021: 52%
In order that tells a quite totally different story from a graph suggesting Sure help has been caught on 47% for the final six years, does it not? With one minor exception, there was a constant year-on-year improve in help for independence since 2014, which was the final survey performed when Alex Salmond was nonetheless SNP chief. And what’s extra, the cumulative improve over these years has been nothing wanting dramatic – an enormous soar from simply 33% in 2014 to 52% in the newest survey from final 12 months.
Now let’s flip to traditional polling on independence. The figures beneath are the yearly common proportion shares for Sure, after Do not Is aware of are excluded, from each single ballot performed in every calendar 12 months since 2016. (I selected 2016 as the beginning date as a result of that is when Mr Campbell’s dodgy graph begins.) This has been a mammoth job that has taken me aaaaaaaages, so I hope you recognize my dedication to my Wings-Watch fact-checking vocation.
Common yearly help for independence in typical opinion polling:
2016: 47.7%
2017: 45.3%
2018: 45.5%
2019: 47.6%
2020: 53.0%
2021: 49.6%
2022: 49.0%
That is clearly a way more advanced sample than the one prompt by the Social Attitudes Survey, nevertheless it’s however fully inconsistent with Mr Campbell’s false claims of a static image. Of explicit word is the speedy and steep climb from roughly 45% (basically an identical to the 2014 referendum end result) in each 2017 and 2018 to the outright majority territory of 53% in 2020. Though help has since slipped again, it nonetheless stays considerably greater than it was in 2017 and 2018, and even slightly greater than it was in 2016. In case you are questioning, the rationale why independence help was a contact greater than may be anticipated in 2016 is that the EU referendum occurred that 12 months, resulting in a short-lived purple patch for Sure in the summertime.
I ought to stress, by the way, that I have not included final night time’s extraordinary Discover Out Now ballot within the 2022 common, just because the query requested was so radically totally different from the norm, and due to this fact it is debatable whether or not it actually counts as an ‘independence ballot’. Together with it will make a major distinction, as a result of the implied Sure lead is round 20% or 22% with Do not Is aware of excluded.
My plea to Wings readers is solely to bear in mind that when Mr Campbell cites independence-related polling, he is virtually all the time both fibbing to you or intentionally deceptive you with selective or non-comparable knowledge. It is solely by bearing that in thoughts that it is potential to actually make sense of what his posts are literally about.
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