From Polar Bear Science
Dr. Susan Crockford
Western Hudson Bay polar bears close to Churchill will be capable to go away shore inside days, at most one week later than within the Eighties, though you wouldn’t know that from the local weather change activists at Polar Bears Worldwide who’ve spent the final week selling some egregiously false and deceptive statements. PBI controls the narrative surrounding Western Hudson Bay bears by means of their partnership with the largest polar bear vacationer outfits in Churchill and on-line.
Yesterday, it was “See how the local weather disaster is altering their world”.
Growing no slower than it did in 2007 (16 years of no change), Arctic sea ice is offering polar bears in southern areas with their second-most essential feeding alternatives whereas in areas like Wrangel Island and Franz Josef Land, they now have easy accessibility to and from necessary summer time refuge/maternity denning islands. And opposite to predictions of elevated ‘battle’ between polar bears and folks round Churchill, there have been fewer drawback bear stories there in recent times, this 12 months included. In different phrases, there isn’t any ‘local weather disaster’ for polar bears, even in Western Hudson Bay, and up to date fashions of a dire future for polar bears are based mostly on completely implausible worst-case local weather eventualities. Sea ice loss since 1979 has been so gradual that polar bears have been capable of adapt, both by means of pure choice or adjustments in behaviour.
Arctic Sea Ice Situations
From the NSIDC, October abstract reveals no declining development in sea ice protection since 2007, regardless of repeated claims by some activists that sea ice situations have been constantly deteriorating:
What the ice charts present
Shut-up photos take from the chart above for 9 November 2022 (general ice protection 9.5mk2)
Western Hudson Bay
Freeze-up this 12 months has been a bit slower than 2020, which was as early because the earliest freeze-ups within the 1980s, however not by a lot. Within the Eighties, most bears left for the ice at freeze-up (10% sea ice protection) about 16 November ± 5 days (Castro de la Guardia 2017, see graph beneath). The earliest the bears left the ice was in 1991 and 1993, on 6 November (Julian day 310)–in 2020, most bears have been passed by 8 November, one of many earliest dates on report.
Due to this fact, freeze-up dates of 10-12 November or so (Day 314-316) for 2017, 2018, and 2019 have been a number of the earliest freeze-up dates recorded since 1979 (the earliest being 6 November, Day 310, in 1991 and 1993), even sooner than the typical for the Eighties. Barring offshore winds that drive the ice away, this 12 months must be comparable.
Meaning Discover.org PBI-affiliated moderator ‘Cloud’ was passing alongside disinformation to viewers when she stated two days in the past [my bold]:
“The ice is simply beginning to type on Hudson Bay. It’s a lot later than years previous, however typical for our current instances.”
Nearly all Western Hudson Bay bears go away the shore inside about 2 days of sea ice focus reaching 10% (Castro de la Guardia 2017), though Southern Hudson Bay bears go away when it reaches about 5% (Obbard et al. 2015, 2016). In different phrases, the bears go as quickly as they presumably can (Stirling et al. 1977).
Hudson Bay Sea ice protection
Weekly protection at 7 November in comparison with earlier years and the long-term common (courtesy Canadian Ice Service) for the NW sector of the bay, exhibiting simply how little change there was in current a long time:
Day by day protection for 9 November:
and to the south…
Churchill Drawback Bears
After 15 weeks onshore this 12 months, there have been few issues with polar bears in Churchill:
Examine the above to the identical week in 2016, when freeze-up was fairly late:
Polar bear pictures from Wapusk Nationwide Park
Courtesy the Discover.org internet cams
Under: two males sparring vigorously, 8 November.
References
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Sequence 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Obbard, M.E., Stapleton, S., Middel, Okay.R., Thibault, I., Brodeur, V. and Jutras, C. 2015. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys. Polar Biology 38:1713-1725.
Obbard, M.E., Cattet, M.R.I., Howe, E.J., Middel, Okay.R., Newton, E.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Abraham, Okay.F. and Greenwood, C.J. 2016. Developments in physique situation in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in relation to adjustments in sea ice. Arctic Science 2: 15-32. DOI: 10.1139/AS-2015-0027
Stirling I, Jonkel C, Smith P, Robertson R, Cross D. 1977. The ecology of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) alongside the western coast of Hudson Bay. Canadian Wildlife Service Occasional Paper No. 33. pdf right here.
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