This yr’s heatwaves had been attributable to a phenomenon known as ‘warmth domes’ – an space of excessive stress that will get caught in the identical place for a number of weeks, trapping scorching air beneath and pushing temperatures increased and better. Warmth domes do happen in regular climate methods, however Invoice McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and local weather hazards at College Faculty London and creator of Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitants Information, says they’ll develop into extra intense and extra frequent.
He says, ‘Warmth domes are held in place by the Jet Stream, the system of high-altitude winds that journey from West to East across the globe. Usually, the Jet Stream travels fairly straight however world heating could also be inflicting it to meander extra.’ This meandering, twisty route means warmth domes usually tend to get ‘locked in’, resulting in extra excessive heatwaves, extra typically.
‘Intense heatwaves will develop into extra frequent; it’s unlikely {that a} yr will go by now with out heatwave situations growing in lots of components of the world,’ says Prof Maguire. ‘Merely put, heatwaves will get hotter as a result of the Earth is getting hotter.’
What’s occurring to our meals proper now?
The heatwaves of summer time 2023 had a right away impression on some meals. Olive crops in Spain, the world’s largest producer of olive oil, have been decimated by drought for the second yr in a row, whereas tomato harvests in Italy had been hit by flooding earlier within the yr, drought throughout June and July, then excessive warmth scorching the fruit. However the largest impression could also be on cereal harvests.
Copa Cogeca, the European farming organisation, says cereal harvests in Southern Europe might fall by 60% in contrast with final yr. That is partly as a result of heatwaves however heavy rainfall and flooding earlier within the yr additionally meant planting needed to be delayed, resulting in smaller harvests. Not solely will this have an effect on the cereals we eat, similar to maize, wheat and soybeans, it impacts the livestock business too – if there’s not sufficient feed for the animals, like cows and pigs, what can farmers do?
Professor Tim Benton, director of the Atmosphere and Society Centre at Chatham Home, says, ‘Nearly all of what we eat comes from a small variety of crops, or livestock consumed these crops. On a world foundation, we develop way more grains than we do the rest, so if provides go down, this places an upward stress on meals costs worldwide.’
Which all means there could possibly be extra gaps on grocery store cabinets, decrease provides of steak and sausages, for instance, and the price of components for pasta sauces, ketchup, pizza and extra can be increased.
And sooner or later?
With excessive heatwaves right here to remain, this may have important, long-term results on our meals. Prof Maguire says, ‘It’s not a lot the warmth that’s the issue – though that doesn’t assist – however prolonged drought situations. This places all cereal crops in danger, plus cocoa, espresso, avocado, olives, cashew nuts, grapes… Nothing is immune.’
Extra like this
Along with an absence of water, rising temperatures can change the kind of animals and bugs that stay in sure areas. ‘We name this the “habitat envelope”,’ says Professor Benton. ‘As temperatures rise, the habitat envelope strikes North. The unique species transfer out, then new, climate-adapting species transfer in. However some species transfer a lot slower than others – evaluate a hen to a snail – so they may die out.’
This adjustments the ecosystem in that space; bugs like bees or wasps that pollinate sure crops might not be round to do their job, resulting in decrease crop yields. Migrating species of bugs might then transfer into an space, forcing farmers to make use of completely different, or stronger, pesticides and pesticides on their crops. This, in flip, can result in decrease yields.
Prof Benton says, ‘Local weather change will change what it’s attainable to develop, and alter the steadiness of crop yields from yr to yr.’
Local weather change can also be pushing up the temperatures in our seas. The North Atlantic has had a number of extreme ‘marine heatwaves’ already this summer time.
Larger sea temperatures can kill off marine animals, together with billions of fish, but additionally forces people who choose colder temperatures to maneuver North, lowering the quantity of seafood that may be caught in established fisheries. The consequence? Decrease fish shares and better costs.
Can we produce extra within the UK?
The federal government not too long ago launched a report exhibiting how local weather change poses a threat to our meals safety, notably as we import 42% of the meals we eat. This makes us notably weak to ‘unpredictable climate occasions abroad’ similar to heatwaves in Europe or hurricanes within the tropics.
One reply is to develop extra of our personal produce in gardens or window bins – you’ll find out how right here – however not everybody has the house (or inexperienced fingers) to have the ability to accomplish that. ‘Failing that, attempt to eat as a lot regionally grown UK produce as attainable,’ says Prof Maguire. ‘This additionally cuts down on the emissions which are inflicting world heating.’
Nonetheless, rising temperatures will even have an effect on what we will develop within the UK. Heatwaves have gotten extra frequent for us too – in 2018, excessive warmth and drought situations hit carrot, onion and potato harvests, resulting in a lot decrease than common yields. In truth, the dearth of water and intense warmth that yr reportedly minimize greater than an inch off the dimensions of the common chip!
The crops we develop might want to change, whereas the costs we pay for meals will go up. ‘The period of low cost meals is over,’ says Prof Benton. ‘For the previous 50 or 60 years, meals costs stored lowering. However now, yr on yr, meals will develop into costlier.’
What can we do?
The report from Defra says the federal government is ‘constructing the UK’s resilience to abroad local weather impacts on meals’, which incorporates working with commerce companions and different organisations to assist strengthen our meals provide chain. However it’s not clear precisely what this implies or what that appears like in observe.
Whereas we wait to search out out, is there something we will do, as shoppers, to assist cease excessive climate affecting our meals? We will change our diets so that they have much less of an environmental impression, similar to lowering or giving up meat and dairy or selecting meals which have a smaller water footprint. However Prof Benton says it might be simpler to extend stress on the federal government.
He says, ‘If the federal government sees tackling local weather change as a vote winner, they’re extra doubtless to herald insurance policies that do make a distinction to the way forward for our meals safety. As a substitute of adjusting the market as a client, do it as a citizen – we must always increase the temperature on politicians, not on the planet.’
