Good morning. Houston has yet one more week of exceptionally scorching September climate earlier than the sample ought to change, with an rising probability of a good entrance pushing into the area. On this submit we’ll additionally focus on the potential for a tropical system to maneuver into the Gulf of Mexico subsequent week.
Tuesday
Temperatures maxed out within the low- to mid-90s throughout Houston on Monday, and situations will probably be related right this moment underneath principally sunny skies. However whereas about 20 % of the area noticed a passing bathe or thunderstorm, that quantity might be 10 % right this moment. And in the event you suppose that’s low, wait till you see the precipitation forecast for the rest of the week. Winds will probably be gentle, out of the east at about 5 mph. Lows tonight ought to drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday
Search for sunny situations, and highs within the mid-90s. Rain probabilities will probably be close to zero.
Thursday and Friday
A ridge of excessive stress will attain its peak towards the top of this week, and it’s going to push excessive temperatures to the higher 90s, and for some inland places, presumably 100 levels. That is very late within the yr for such scorching days. In almost 150 years of information, the most recent 100-degree day ever recorded through the calendar got here on September 27, 2005. (Friday is September 23). Rain chances are high zero every day, with sunny skies.
Saturday and Sunday
Because the aforementioned ridge begins to retreat a bit, we’ll see excessive temperatures again off barely. However I’d nonetheless anticipate highs within the mid-90s, with sunny skies, on Saturday and Sunday. Just a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are doable by Sunday, however at this level I’d peg probabilities at 20 % or much less.
Subsequent week
Whereas the sample is not but set in stone, it now seems probably {that a} chilly entrance will push via on Monday or so of subsequent week, and this could carry some notably drier and cooler air. Don’t count on miracles from the primary entrance of the yr, however we must always see nighttime temperatures drop into the 60s for inland areas, with dewpoints comfortably within the 50s.
Tropics
Fiona is now a significant hurricane pulling northward of the Dominican Republic, and it’ll have an effect on Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas right this moment. In just a few days, the storm may threaten Bermuda.
Of extra curiosity to the continental United States is a tropical wave within the Atlantic Ocean, a day or two away from coming into the Caribbean Sea. World fashions have change into extra bullish on the event of this technique over the past 24 hours, and it has a believable path to succeed in the Gulf of Mexico in per week or ten days from now. Right here’s a map of the European ensembles for this technique, one week from right this moment:
There may be good settlement right here a couple of tropical system reaching the western Caribbean Sea early subsequent week. Importantly, that is about so far as we will fairly depend on mannequin steering. After 5 to seven days, the accuracy of such fashions breaks down. And certainly, after we run the forecast ahead simply two days, to Thursday September 29, there may be an especially huge variance of outcomes. A few of the fashions begin to flip the storm northward towards Florida, and others proceed to push it westward towards the Gulf of Mexico, the place it may wind up wherever from Mexico to the Florida peninsula.
So what does all this imply for Texas? We’re quick reaching the time of yr when it’s much less probably for storms to trace into Texas, however that doesn’t imply it’s unattainable. On this case, the fashions are sending a powerful sign that this technique will develop within the Caribbean Sea, and change into a tropical storm or a hurricane. After that point it could very properly transfer into the Gulf of Mexico, however there are simply too many variables to type out earlier than we will have any confidence in the place it’s going to go. Our greatest forecasting instruments are simply less than the duty of delineating a transparent monitor for a tropical system that has not but fashioned, 9 or ten days from now.
Backside line: In case you’re residing close to the Texas coast, this isn’t one thing I might lose an excessive amount of sleep over. But it surely’s undoubtedly price watching, and we’ll be doing simply that.
