Good morning. As we speak marks the autumnal equinox, when the solar shines straight over the equator. Put one other method, for the northern hemisphere in the present day is the primary day of fall. Alas, it would not really feel like fall outdoors, however relatively the useless of summer season. In truth, Houston faces 5 extra extremely popular, August-like days earlier than the primary actual cool entrance of the season arrives on Monday, ushering in drier and at the least reasonably cooler air.
For the previous couple of years we’ve dubbed the primary day it actually seems like fall in Houston as FALL DAY. This yr that may most likely be Tuesday or Wednesday. Together with our companion Reliant Power, we thought it will be enjoyable to have fun Fall Day and host our first-ever in-person occasion with me, Matt, Maria, Lee, and Dwight. Please be part of us on Sunday, October 2 between 10 a.m. and midday on the Houston Botanic Backyard for a fall festive meet-and-greet with actions for teenagers and adults. Admission is free. Search for extra particulars quickly.
Thursday
Excessive stress will peak over the area in the present day, and accordingly we’re going to see very heat temperatures with highs usually within the higher 90s. A couple of areas effectively inland might hit 100 levels, whereas the coast will attain the low 90s. Skies will likely be sunny, with rain probabilities proper at zero p.c. Winds will likely be gentle, usually out of the north, at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.
Friday
This will likely be one other sizzling and sunny day, with highs maybe 1 or 2 levels decrease than Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will see continued sizzling and sunny situations, however because the excessive stress ridge begins to again off we are able to count on to see highs dropping into the mid-90s for many of Houston. There may be maybe a slight probability of showers by Sunday afternoon, however I might not guess on it.
Subsequent week
Monday will likely be sizzling once more, however after then we’re anticipating the arrival of a chilly entrance that may deliver drier and cooler air into the area. Days are nonetheless going to be loads heat, with ample sunshine and dry air serving to to maintain daytime highs within the higher 80s to maybe 90 levels. However nights ought to cool off pretty shortly because the solar goes down, and lows drop into the 60s. With dewpoints within the 40s and 50s for a number of days it would really feel noticeably completely different. Rain probabilities keep low.
The tropics
There’s a lot happening, together with a big storm headed to Canada within the type of Hurricane Fiona, however for the continental United States all eyes are on a tropical wave often called Make investments 98L. The system has but to indicate vital group as it’s being affected by robust wind shear, however there may be excessive confidence that it will grow to be a tropical storm, after which most likely a hurricane, over the following a number of days because it strikes into the central and the western Caribbean Sea.
After that point there stays some uncertainty on the observe forecast as 98L possible turns to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past 24 hours the premiere US forecast mannequin, the International Forecast System, has introduced 98L nearer and nearer to Texas earlier than it makes landfall in Louisiana about 10 days from now. See under for the newest GFS forecast, which is way sufficient out that it’s most likely nugatory. I’m sharing it for illustration functions, nonetheless.
Below this situation Make investments 98L misses a “trough” that might permit it to maneuver north early subsequent week, and it continues to float into the central and western Gulf of Mexico earlier than finally turning north. On this case we might be watching the system for a very long time. Whereas that is definitely doable, presently I don’t take into account this a probable final result.
Why? As a result of the fact is that the GFS mannequin’s operational run is a big outlier at this level. The overwhelming majority of mannequin steering, together with many members of the GFS ensembles (proven above) and the European mannequin (proven under), preserve 98L within the jap half of the Gulf of Mexico.
Our confidence in a observe forecast ought to enhance in the course of the subsequent 24 to 48 hours as the worldwide fashions ingest knowledge gathered by hurricane hunters, and the middle of Make investments 98L begins to type. Till that point count on a good quantity of uncertainty, and we’ll accordingly proceed to look at it carefully.
