You will have heard hypothesis a couple of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and {that a} ‘Beast from the East’ is on the best way with freezing situations and widespread snow.
Is there any fact behind the headlines and what can we are saying concerning the climate for the approaching month?
Nicely, a sudden stratospheric warming is underway, however solely a minor one. The warming is predicted to peak in direction of the top of January. The robust westerly winds excessive over the Arctic, known as the stratospheric polar vortex, have weakened and the vortex is partially collapsing. Nonetheless, the polar vortex has been unusually robust thus far this 12 months and though there was a minor SSW, the winds are anticipated to rebound shortly, recovering to speeds round regular for the time of 12 months.
It could take every week or extra for any impacts from an SSW to work its approach down by means of the ambiance and to have any affect on the climate within the UK. Nonetheless, not all SSWs result in chilly climate and widespread snow for the UK, for instance, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘beast from the east’ whereas the SSW in January 2019 had no important affect for the UK climate, actually, it stayed gentle for the remainder of the winter.
Forecasts at current present solely minor impacts are anticipated and that different components, corresponding to La Nina and the Madden Julian Oscillation are additionally prone to affect our climate over the subsequent few weeks. Our predominant climate is predicted to return from the west with moist and windy intervals. The unsettled situations are anticipated to affect the north and west of the UK in the beginning of February as frontal techniques push south throughout the nation, weakening as they go together with components of the south remaining largely dry. Temperatures will keep round common for a lot of.
Changeable climate is prone to proceed by means of to the second half of the month bringing rainfall, heavy at instances, once more to the north and west. The south and east are anticipated to see some drier and brighter intervals with some lighter rain. A quick spell of extra settled situations is feasible in the course of the interval, bringing a larger danger of in a single day frost and freezing fog, particularly beneath clear skies with mild winds. Temperatures are anticipated to be usually at or barely above common, though a quick colder spell stays attainable.
The Met Workplace will proceed to watch the scenario and, as ever, hold updated on our forecast pages and warnings pages and by following us on Twitter and Fb. Our app is accessible for iPhone from the App retailer and for Android from the Google Play retailer.
