Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which has simply rocked Madagascar, has been barrelling by way of the tropical Indian Ocean for 16 days – making it one of many longest-lived techniques within the southern hemisphere. It developed on 6 February off the coast of north-west of Australia and has affected island nations, together with Mauritius, throughout its passage.
Julian Heming is a tropical cyclone knowledgeable with the Met Workplace. He stated: “As soon as making landfall over Madagascar, Freddy has begun to collapse, however the forecast fashions predict it to reform once more over the Mozambique Channel – the strait separating Madagascar from continental Africa – earlier than making a second landfall in Mozambique itself.”
Freddy made landfall simply south of Mananjary, in Madagascar on Tuesday night, with estimated 10-minute sustained speeds of 100 mph, gusts to 150 mph and a storm surge of as much as one metre at and simply south of the landfall location, with waves of as much as 13 metres on prime of the surge.
Freddy reaches the west coast of Madagascar early Wednesday night (native).
Michael Silverstone is an Professional Operational Meteorologist with the Met Workplace world steering unit. He stated: “Heavy rain will have an effect on the normally drier west of Madagascar, with 50-100 mm anticipated right here, which is about half the February common. Later, Freddy is prone to start strengthening once more because it strikes into the Mozambique Channel, changing into a extreme tropical storm and possibly even regaining tropical cyclone standing previous to an anticipated second landfall on the coast of Mozambique between Inhambane and Beira on Friday morning.
“It’s prone to convey a smaller storm surge right here than occurred over jap Madagascar. Rainfall is prone to be the principle hazard, with extensively over 200-300 mm and regionally over 500 mm of rain anticipated late this week and into the weekend over a big space throughout central and southern Mozambique and into jap Zimbabwe, northeast South Africa and Eswatini (the typical February rainfall for the affected space is roughly 100-200 mm).
“Coastal flooding and damaging, probably harmful, winds are anticipated near the landfall location in south-eastern Mozambique Friday morning, though this probably be much less impactful than was seen in Madagascar. For mainland south-eastern Africa, the very heavy rainfall approaching prime of a really moist latest spell will pose a major menace of widespread flash and riverine flooding late this week and thru this weekend, with an enhanced landslide menace too.”
Tropical cyclones purchase their power from the ocean. Freddy could not have the capability to rebuild into such an intensive system whereas crossing the Mozambique Channel however the principle concern is the quantity of moisture the system has wrapped up inside it.
Julian Heming added: “Among the forecast fashions are suggesting that Freddy may turn out to be fairly a slow-moving system successfully hanging over Mozambique for a number of days unleashing extraordinarily excessive rainfall totals over the nation and neighbouring coastal areas. This would possibly trigger actual flooding issues.”
The file for the longest-lived tropical cyclone for the southern hemisphere is Cyclone Leon-Eline, which occurred in 2000, and that was a tropical storm for 18 and a half days that took a really comparable monitor beginning to the north west of Australia. It then struck Madagascar after which reformed and restrengthened within the Mozambique Channel after which went on to make landfall over Mozambique.
There may be an affiliation between the event of those long-lived tropical cyclones within the South Indian Ocean and the La Niña (cool) part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle within the tropical Pacific. There may be at the moment a La Niña within the tropical Pacific: the third in three successive years.
Julian Heming added: “Leon-Eline and its related flooding occurred on the finish of a really lengthy, extended La Niña interval which additionally produced flooding over Mozambique. It appears like we may get an analogous flooding scenario over the following few days in Mozambique.”
