By: Marc Morano
Local weather Depot Actuality Examine:
Excessive Climate knowledgeable Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. feedback on new research: ‘New empirical research: Are floods growing in North America and Europe? No (and according to IPCC.)’
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Research revealed within the Journal of Hydrology, Quantity 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717. The research discovered:
‘The variety of important traits was concerning the quantity anticipated attributable to probability alone.’
‘Adjustments within the frequency of main floods are dominated by multidecadal variability.’
‘The Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) concluded (Hartmann et al., 2013) that globally there isn’t a clear and widespread proof of adjustments in flood magnitude or frequency in noticed flood information.’
‘The outcomes of this research, for North America and Europe, present a firmer basis and help the conclusion of the IPCC (Hartmann et al., 2013) that compelling proof for elevated flooding at a worldwide scale is missing.’
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Journal of Hydrology
Quantity 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717
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Associated Hyperlinks:
2018 US local weather evaluation: Bjorn Lomborg: The report discovered: On flooding, the evaluation accepts the IPCC’s discovering, which “didn’t attribute adjustments in flooding to anthropogenic [human] affect nor report detectable adjustments in flooding magnitude, period or frequency.”
2017 Research on floods finds ‘roughly the quantity anticipated attributable to probability alone’ – No ‘world warming’ sign – A research revealed within the Journal of Hydrology discovered “the variety of important traits in major-flood prevalence throughout North America and Europe was roughly the quantity anticipated attributable to probability alone.”
Through Chapter excerpt of Inexperienced Fraud:
Not-So-Excessive Climate Occasions
In 2017 Roger Pielke Jr. of the College of Colorado testified to Congress there was merely “‘no proof’ that hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes are growing.”
A 2020 research by Pielke revealed within the journal Environmental Hazards discovered that the “proof sign of human-caused local weather change within the type of elevated world financial losses from extra frequent or extra intense climate extremes has not but been detected.”
On almost each metric, excessive climate is on both no pattern or a declining pattern on local weather timescales. Even the UN IPCC admitted in a 2018 particular report that excessive climate occasions haven’t elevated. The IPCC’s particular report discovered that “there’s solely low confidence relating to adjustments in world tropical cyclone numbers beneath world warming over the past 4 a long time.” The IPCC report additionally concluded “low confidence within the signal of drought traits since 1950 at world scale.”
Pielke testified to Congress on the present state of climate extremes, “It’s deceptive, and simply plain incorrect, to say that disasters related to hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts have elevated on local weather timescales both in the USA or globally.”
Floods
A 2017 research on floods discovered “roughly the quantity anticipated attributable to probability alone.”
One other 2017 research within the Journal of Hydrology discovered no improve in world floods: “Compelling proof for elevated flooding at a worldwide scale is missing.”59
A 2019 research discovered that the world is the most secure from climate-related disasters that it has ever been: “A lowering pattern in each human and financial vulnerability is obvious. International common mortality and loss charges have dropped by 6.5 and almost 5 instances, respectively, from 1980 to 1989 to 2007–2016. Outcomes additionally present a transparent adverse relation between vulnerability and wealth.”
Climatologist John Christy has defined why the acute climate claims are unscientific: “The non-falsifiable hypotheses may be acknowledged this manner, ‘no matter occurs is according to my speculation.’ In different phrases, there isn’t a occasion that will ‘falsify’ the speculation. As such, these assertions can’t be thought-about science or in any means informative because the speculation’ basic prediction is ‘something might occur.’ Within the instance above if winters change into milder or they change into snowier, the non-falsifiable speculation stands. This isn’t science.”
‘Floods aren’t growing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘world warming’ hyperlink to floods & excessive climate – How does media ‘get away with this?’ – Pielke Jr. on how excessive climate is NOT getting worse: ‘Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not growing both.’ “Floods suck once they happen. The excellent news is U.S. flood harm is sharply down over 70 years,” Pielke defined.
Research Finds No Proof Of International Warming Rising Excessive Rainfall
1000 yr rainfall research suggests droughts and floods was longer, worse
Evaluation: Report Rainfalls A Factor Of The Previous:Observe from Paul Homewood: “The rainfall from Harvey was the best from a single storm. Nevertheless, this was simply in a single spot, as Harvey was caught over Houston for every week. Different storms have dumped extra rain, however unfold over a wider space.” ‘We hold being instructed by local weather alarmists that world warming is answerable for extra intensive rainfall, the idea being {that a} hotter ambiance can maintain extra moisture. Humorous then that once we take a look at rainfall information throughout the US for all kinds of various timescales, we discover none in any respect since 1981.’
Warmist Blames India Monsoon On ‘Local weather Change’ However Annual rainfall traits debunk –India’s monsoon rainfall has been operating simply above common this yr, however throughout the regular vary (thought to be 10% +/-)
Actuality Examine: International Cooling Led To Extra Extremes Of Rainfall – ‘Rainfall really elevated sharply through the interval of world cooling within the Sixties and 70s’
Scientist: ‘There Is No Such Factor As A 1000-Yr Flood’ – Local weather Statistician Dr. Matt Briggs: Phrases like “100 yr rainfalls” or floods or no matter for no matter time frame are terrible. They convey an improper concept of uncertainty. The phrase “X yr occasion” is predicated on inverting the chance of the occasion; name that chance p. Thus “X yr occasion” is the same as “1/p yr occasion”, the place p is the chance the occasion occurs per yr. Which means a “100 yr occasion” has a chance of 1%, and so forth. A “1000 yr occasion” sounds stupendous, and, to most ears, rarer than a 0.1% probability. Anyway, these are all incorrect…It’s completely appropriate to make the statements like this: “The final time a flood this dimension occurred was in 1945.” That assertion just isn’t, nevertheless, equal to (in 2015) “That was a 70 yr flood.”
Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: South Carolina Flooding is NOT a 1 in 1,000 Yr Occasion – However a as soon as on 1,000 yr occasion? Sorry, however there isn’t a solution to decide that…there are merely not sufficient rainfall statistics over an extended sufficient time frame to ascertain such a declare…Sadly, there appears to be an pattern towards classifying occasions as “1 in 1,000 years”, when there isn’t a means of figuring out such issues…For some areas the present flood is little doubt a 1 in 100 yr occasion, and even worse. However bear in mind, it’s completely regular to have a 1 in 100 yr occasion yearly…so long as they happen in numerous places. That’s how climate information work.
Meteorologist Topper Shutt – WUSA 9 TV: ‘A 500 yr flood doesn’t imply that an space will see a flood of that magnitude as soon as in 500 years. It implies that in any given yr there’s a .2% probability of a 500 yr flood and likewise a 1% probability yearly for a 100 yr flood. Consider it like this. If I flip a coin and it lands heads 5 instances in a row the sixth time I flip the coin the chances are nonetheless 50/50. The chances are at all times 50/50. There have been ‘100 yr’ floods in Houston in 1929, 1935, Allison in 2001 and Ike in 2008. People are in all probability scratching their heads questioning what on the planet is happening. There are a number of explanations. Firstly, the maps drawn to depict these floods had been educated guesses. Keep in mind, we’re speaking about billions of years of local weather and normally only a hundred years of precise, observational information. Secondly, city improvement reduces the floor of the bottom that enables the rain to permeate into the bottom. Including parking tons, extra roads and driveways create extra runoff. Thirdly, no less than within the case of Houston 1000s of houses have been constructed near streams, creeks and bayous that ought to have by no means been constructed within the first place. Houston is the fourth largest metropolis within the U.S.’
Local weather Depot Observe: The media and local weather activists like to hype so-called 1 in 100/1000 yr excessive climate occasions. What they don’t not clarify is that your probability of the successful the lottery may be very low, however the probability of somebody, someplace successful the lottery are very excessive. So the activists primarily hype “lottery winners” of utmost climate occasions and attempt to indicate these occasions are growing and taking place in all places. Lottery and on line casino adverts do the identical by exhibiting all of the winners and implying you’re only one ticket or spin away from becoming a member of the fortunate winners. Local weather activists try to scare the general public into believing that they’re one dangerous climate occasion away from doom and solely EPA and the UN Paris local weather pact can save them!
Feds declare no local weather hyperlink to floods in 2015 – South Carolina’s ‘1000 yr flood’ solely a ten yr flood! U.S. Geological Survey: ‘No linkage between flooding & improve in GHGs’ – Dr. Robert Holmes, USGS Nationwide Flood Hazard Coordinator: ‘The information exhibits no systematic will increase in flooding by time’ – ‘USGS analysis has proven no linkage between flooding (both will increase or decreases) and the rise in greenhouse gases. Basically, from USGS long-term streamgage information for websites throughout the nation with no regulation or different adjustments to the watershed that might affect the streamflow, the information exhibits no systematic will increase in flooding by time.’ 1000 yr flood? ‘Nearly all of USGS streamgages had flood peaks that had been lower than 10-year floods.’ – ‘Evaluation present NO indication {that a} 1000-year flood discharge occurred at any USGS streamgages’
Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. slams NOAA research as ‘manipulation of science for political causes.’ ‘NOAA must be embarrassed.’
Pielke Sr.: ‘From beneath reviewed paper to NOAA PR to USA As we speak. A dismaying instance of manipulation of science for political causes.’
Local weather Depot’s Marc Morano on new NOAA research: “Regardless of how onerous federally funded local weather activist scientists at NOAA attempt to bend and twist fashions and information to make it seem the invisible hand of ‘world warming’ has a job in virtually each climate occasion, the details refute their claims.”
Actuality Examine: The ‘1000 yr Colorado flood’ is definitely a 25-50 yr flood
Pielke Jr. On ‘unsupportable quotes’ from Mann, Francis & Masters: ‘In fact, there are scientists prepared to transcend what may be supported empirically to make claims at odds with the overwhelming scientific consensus on this topic — e.g., [Michael] Mann, [Jennifer] Francis, [Jeff] Masters are at all times good for inscrutable and unsupportable quotes.’
STUDY: Covid lockdown’s fast emissions drop linked to document rainfall in China – ‘Scientists say’ drop in emissions & aerosols ’precipitated atmospheric adjustments’– Research in journal, Nature Communications: “The chain of occasions that connects the pandemic shutdown to the floods is kind of complicated. There was heating over land attributable to aerosol reductions but additionally cooling over the ocean attributable to a lower in greenhouse gases, which intensified the land/sea temperature distinction in the summertime,” defined lead writer Prof Yang Yang from Nanjing College of Data Science and Expertise, in China. “This in flip, elevated sea degree stress over the South China/Philippines sea and intensified the winds bringing moist air to japanese China which then noticed intense precipitation.”
“As a result of emissions had been lowered dramatically in early 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic emerged, it precipitated a direct and abrupt change in varied elements of the local weather system.” “Such sudden change of the local weather system could be very completely different from adjustments in response to steady however gradual policy-driven emissions reductions.”
Hourly Excessive Rainfall Claims Not Supported By Knowledge
Warmist Blames India Monsoon On ‘Local weather Change’ However Annual rainfall traits debunk– India’s monsoon rainfall has been operating simply above common this yr, however throughout the regular vary (thought to be 10% +/-)
Declare: Local weather change made Harvey rainfall 15 p.c extra intense
Evaluation: Report Rainfalls A Factor Of The Previous– Observe from Paul Homewood: “The rainfall from Harvey was the best from a single storm. Nevertheless, this was simply in a single spot, as Harvey was caught over Houston for every week. Different storms have dumped extra rain, however unfold over a wider space.”
‘We hold being instructed by local weather alarmists that world warming is answerable for extra intensive rainfall, the idea being {that a} hotter ambiance can maintain extra moisture. Humorous then that once we take a look at rainfall information throughout the US for all kinds of various timescales, we discover none in any respect since 1981.’
“Take specific observe of the 4 information in Texas:
- Galveston 1871 – 3.95” in quarter-hour
- Woodward Ranch 1935 – 15.0” in 2 hours
- Thrall 1921 – 36.4” in 18 hours
- Alvin 1979 – 43” in 24 hours
Storm Harvey by no means obtained wherever close to these form of totals. And we discover a very related image once we assessment world information, with the latest document being as way back as 1980.”
The Atlantic Magazine: Warmist Kevin Trenberth declare: ‘The human contribution may be as much as 30 p.c or so as much as the overall rainfall popping out of the storm.’
Media declare: ‘Harvey is unprecedented—simply the sort of bizarre climate that scientists count on to see extra of because the planet warms’
New Research Finds No Proof Of International Warming Rising Excessive Rainfall
The Thousand Yr Rainfall Fallacy: ‘Conflating odds of 1 particular person station getting a 20 inch rain, with odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.’– ‘Your odds of successful the lottery are very small, however the odds of somebody successful the lottery are fairly excessive. What these geniuses are doing is conflating the chances of 1 particular person station getting a 20 inch rain, with the chances of any station getting a 20 inch rain.’
Actuality Examine on Salon Magazine.: “Excessive Rainfall Information In The States” Most are pre-1950, none since 1996:
No new information have been set since 1996 and most are pre-1950. Not a lot signal of world warming having any impact there.
Industrial air pollution has allegedly ‘held again’ rainfall will increase
Settled science: New paper challenges local weather science consensus on winds & rainfall — Revealed in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics– Research ‘finds that condensation and evaporation benefit consideration as main, if beforehand ignored, elements in driving atmospheric dynamics, together with winds and rainfall. ‘This paper is basically attempting to carry the physics to formal consideration of the local weather scientists,” in keeping with co-author Douglas Sheil. “We’re asking them to disprove this principle and to date nobody has been in a position to do this’
NOAA Establishes That CO2 & Scorching Climates Do Not Trigger Excessive Rainfall Occasions
‘A paper revealed right this moment within the Journal of Atmospheric and Photo voltaic-Terrestrial Physics finds that sunspot numbers and the idea of pure local weather cycles ‘precisely reproduces’ the patterns of rainfall in Fortaleza, Brasil ‘over your complete 160 years of observations.’
‘AGW principle proposes that elevated CO2 ranges result in elevated water vapor in ambiance (regardless of empirical information which exhibits the alternative). A paper revealed in Nature Local weather Change February 2012 studied rainfall over Indian subcontinent 1813-2006 & finds rainfall has decreased since Nineteen Thirties as CO2 emissions markedly elevated. The information as a substitute exhibits a pure, cyclical variability in imply annual rainfall that peaked in 1870s and Nineteen Thirties with completely no correlation to ranges of CO2’
Why local weather change is inflicting upset stomachs in Europe: ‘Scientists at the moment are suggesting that larger portions of rainfall and larger storms may very well be answerable for extra unsettled stomachs in elements of Europe’– ‘Sweden, Spain, Hungary, Greece and Brazil. These international locations are significantly weak to local weather change, being prone to heavy rainfall. Assessments included analysing publicity ranges to estimate the danger of illness related to local weather adjustments comparable to heavy rainfall’
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