Visitor Put up by Willis Eschenbach
Yesterday, Eric Worrall posted an attention-grabbing article entitled “Forbes: International Warming is Inflicting Colder Februaries“. The title says all of it. The Forbes article states:
Thanks To Local weather Change, February Is Now The Cruelest Month
Jeff McMahon
Senior Contributor
Jan 29, 2023,12:14am ESTThese uncommon frozen Februaries in Texas might not be so uncommon anymore.
Early winter has been warming throughout North America, however late winter is one other story. Scientists have documented a cooling development over greater than 40 Februaries, marked by harmful and more and more frequent intrusions of Arctic air deep into the US.
The underlying article in Science says:
Chilly climate disruptions
Regardless of the speedy warming that’s the cardinal signature of worldwide local weather change, particularly within the Arctic, the place temperatures are rising rather more than elsewhere on the earth, the US and different areas of the Northern Hemisphere have skilled a conspicuous and more and more frequent variety of episodes of extraordinarily chilly winter climate over the previous 4 a long time. Cohen et al. mixed observations and fashions to display that Arctic change is probably going an essential explanation for a sequence of processes involving what they name a stratospheric polar vortex disruption, which finally ends in intervals of utmost chilly in northern midlatitudes (see the Perspective by Coumou).
Summary
The Arctic is warming at a fee twice the worldwide common and extreme winter climate is reported to be rising throughout many closely populated mid-latitude areas, however there is no such thing as a settlement on whether or not a bodily hyperlink exists between the 2 phenomena. We use observational evaluation to indicate {that a} lesser-known stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruption that entails wave reflection and stretching of the SPV is linked with excessive chilly throughout components of Asia and North America, together with the current February 2021 Texas chilly wave, and has been rising over the satellite tv for pc period. We then use numerical modeling experiments compelled with developments in autumn snow cowl and Arctic sea ice to ascertain a bodily hyperlink between Arctic change and SPV stretching and associated floor impacts.
Hmmm …
Now, I’m an information man. So I went and obtained the US February temperatures from 4 totally different datasets—Berkeley Earth, CERES, NOAA ClimDiv, and the UAH MSU decrease troposphere knowledge. All however the CERES dataset cowl the 1979—2021 interval lined by the examine.
Listed here are the US February developments from the 4 datasets:
Determine 1. February Continental US Temperature Anomalies, 4 datasets.
In all 4 datasets, February has been getting hotter, not colder … go determine.
So … how did they get their outcomes? Effectively, they didn’t take a look at observational knowledge.
As an alternative, they used a local weather mannequin fed with the outcomes of a local weather reanalysis mannequin plus snow cowl knowledge plus arctic sea ice knowledge … and as well as, they used Ok-means clustering of the 100 hPa reanalysis geopotential heights, a number of linear regression, a simplified Betts-Miller convection scheme, an idealized boundary layer scheme primarily based on Monin-Obukhov similarity concept, a slab ocean, the Speedy Radiative Switch Mannequin (RRTMG) radiation scheme, and plenty of different good juju.
What it appears they didn’t do was … really take a look at real-world knowledge as a substitute of utilizing the Bette-Midler convection scheme.
Gotta say, the dying throes of the local weather madness are type of amusing to observe … or they might be if local weather alarmism weren’t so harmful, significantly to the poor. This type of insanity is driving power costs by the roof, and that’s the cruelest tax of all.
My easiest to everybody,
w.
