From the Cliff Mass Climate Weblog
Cliff Mass,
European climate prediction fashions offered to be considerably superior to U.S climate prediction programs predicting the monitor of Hurricane Ian.
Climate radar picture close to the time of Ian’s landfall on the
west coast of western Florida at present.
This is a matter I’ve blogged about and written papers about up to now, with probably the most well-known previous case being Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
And it displays the decline of U.S. nationwide climate prediction talent versus main worldwide facilities–a state of affairs that may be a nationwide embarrassment and should be mounted.
Let me present you the unlucky particulars for Hurricane Ian.
I’ll begin with a graphic of forecast monitor error by Professor Brian Tang of the College of Albany (web site right here). This determine presents the monitor error (in km) for varied forecast lead occasions.
The primary US world mannequin (the GFS) is proven by the darkish purple coloration (AVNO), whereas the main climate prediction heart on this planet (the European Middle) is proven by blue (ECMF). The high-resolution US hurricane fashions (HWRF and HMON) by purple and cyan, and the official forecast (with human enter!) by the black line.
For the short-term forecasts (24 or 48 hr) everybody was on the identical web page.
However take a look at the prolonged forecasts (96 and 120 hr)! OMG. The European Middle was the clear winner, with roughly HALF the monitor error of the US world mannequin.
Moreover, it is vitally regarding that the U.S. high-resolution hurricane fashions (HWRF and HMON) had even bigger monitor errors.
Excessive decision doesn’t do you a lot good when you get the storm within the mistaken place!
Let me present you the issue spatially by presenting the tracks of the U.S. and European ensembles of many forecasts, with every forecast offering a monitor of the storm.
Beneath are the forecasts beginning at 0000 UTC 25 September (Saturday at 5 PM PDT), with the black traces displaying you the imply monitor of all of the forecasts). (imagery courtesy of weathernerds.org)
The European Middle forecasts have been superb, suggesting landfall on the central and southern western coast of Florida. South of Tampa. Fairly near the precise landfalling place (as proven by the radar picture above)
In distinction, the US GFS ensemble was displaced rather more to the west (which was mistaken). Far more unfold (uncertainty). The U.S. forecasts have been MUCH extra threatening to Tampa, since a storm making landfall north of Tampa may push water into the bay.
On account of the problematic U.S. forecasts, the media went nuts speaking a few catastrophic storm surge in Tampa, with calls to evacuate a whole lot of hundreds of individuals. And folks down the coast weren’t warned of a critical risk.
I want this was an remoted case, however it’s not.
U.S. world climate prediction is not so good as some main worldwide facilities, and the price to the American individuals is gigantic (are you able to think about the prices of all of the evacuations in Tampa, for instance).
The U.S. has the biggest and finest climate analysis neighborhood on this planet. We spend extra on climate prediction than anybody else. But, our forecasts are not so good as others. And a shadow of what we’re able to.
I’ve written a brand new paper describing the origins of the issue. It’s a downside of group, of duplication of efforts, of nobody group or particular person being accountable, and an absence of a coherent system for bettering our climate fashions.
And it’ll take the energetic intervention of Congress to repair it.
