The information from Downing Road this morning about Boris Johnson’s intention has led to an enormous shake-up of the following prime minister betting because the chart exhibits.
A giant gainer has been Ben Wallace who has moved up from a 6.5% probability to 22% this afternoon. He was helped by some CON members’ polling from YouGov that had him forward. The fieldwork for this was principally earlier than Johnson’s intentions have been made identified.
The opposite upward mover has been Deputy PM Raab following hypothesis that he is perhaps a stand-in PM while the election to decide on the following chief and PM takes place.
There’s a big quantity of element to be labored out over the timing of Johnson’s exit and the preparations for the management election. As we recall Tory management elections fall into two components – a sequence of votes by MPs to whittle down the variety of contenders to 2 after which the membership poll.
All of the indications are that many Tory MPs need Johnson out sooner somewhat than later.
Mike Smithson
