Essay by Eric Worrall
Final month the MET defined how world warming causes extra intense dry durations. However College of Bristol now informs us excessive downpours will occur extra typically.
Intense downpours within the UK will enhance because of local weather change – new research
Revealed: March 8, 2023 3.58am AEDT
Elizabeth Kendon
Professor of Local weather Science, College of BristolIn July 2021, Kew in London skilled a month’s rain in simply three hours. Throughout town, tube traces had been suspended and stations closed as London skilled its wettest day in a long time and flash floods broke out. Just below two weeks later, it occurred once more: intense downpours led to widespread disruption, together with the flooding of two London hospitals.
Colleagues and I’ve created a brand new set of 100-year local weather projections to extra precisely assess the probability of heavy rain downpours like these over the approaching years and a long time. The quick reply is local weather change means these excessive downpours will occur extra typically within the UK – and be much more intense.
To generate these projections, we used the Met Workplace operational climate forecast mannequin, however run on lengthy local weather timescales. This offered very detailed local weather projections – for each 2.2km grid field over the UK, for each hour, for 100 years from 1981 to 2080. These are rather more detailed than conventional local weather projections and wanted to be run as a sequence of 20-year simulations that had been then stitched collectively. Even on the Met Workplace supercomputer, these nonetheless took about six months to run.
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Learn extra: https://theconversation.com/intense-downpours-in-the-uk-will-increase-due-to-climate-change-new-study-200385
Earlier this 12 months the local weather prophecy was a bit of totally different;
Local weather change, drought and water safety
Posted on 2 February, 2023 by Met Workplace Press Workplace
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Local weather change and growing warmth drought occasions
In November 2022, the WMO printed its first State of World Water Sources report which assessed the consequences of local weather, environmental and societal change on water assets. On the time, WMO Secretary-Normal Professor Petteri Taalas mentioned, “The impacts of local weather change are sometimes felt by way of water – extra intense and frequent droughts, extra excessive flooding, extra erratic seasonal rainfall and accelerated melting of glaciers – with cascading results on economies, ecosystems and all facets of our day by day lives. And but, there may be inadequate understanding of adjustments within the distribution, amount, and high quality of freshwater assets.”
Because the local weather continues to alter on account of greenhouse gasoline emissions, we’re seeing more and more sizzling, dry situations within the UK and globally. 2022 has lately been confirmed because the hottest 12 months on document for the UK with an annual common temperature of over 10°C, and this pattern is projected to proceed sooner or later. July 2022 noticed the driest month since 1935 for England as an entire, and the driest on document for East Anglia, southeast and southern England, with the UK seeing simply 56% of its common rainfall for the month. Because of this, drought was declared by the Surroundings Company in lots of elements of the UK in August 2022.
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Learn extra: https://weblog.metoffice.gov.uk/2023/02/02/climate-change-drought-and-water-security/
Don’t neglect of us, settled science. Allow us to hope for Britain’s sake, the worldwide warming brought on extra frequent intense rainfall cancels out the worldwide warming pushed enhance in sizzling, dry situations.
