David Wojick
This preposterous declare reveals the damaging absurdity of the “loss and injury” doctrine. At this charge of harm the worldwide whole would run round TWO HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR. There’s not that a lot cash in the entire world.
The $800 billion a 12 months is from a report offered by Colombia at COP27. The mainstream inexperienced press both didn’t discover or determined to disregard it, lest it increase points finest left alone till the proposed UN Loss and Harm Facility is created.
Have a look at it this fashion. Colombia is a comparatively small nation with a GDP of round $300 billion a 12 months, concerning the fortieth largest on the planet and simply 0.4% of the worldwide whole. Its “loss and injury” declare is roughly 2.5 occasions its GDP, so let’s assume that ratio globally.
World GDP is about $81 trillion, which multiplied by 2.5 equals simply over $200 trillion a 12 months.
Listed below are some massive creating nation examples, utilizing the two.5 occasions GDP estimate, rounded off. (GDP is from 2017)
Estimated “loss and damages” from human induced local weather chaos:
India $6.6 trillion a 12 months
Brazil $5.1 trillion a 12 months
Mexico $2.9 trillion a 12 months
Indonesia $2.5 trillion a 12 months
Argentina $1.6 trillion a 12 months
Iran $1.1 trillion a 12 months
Clearly these numbers are absurd so far as reparations go. After all they’re additionally absurd so far as human induced local weather damages are involved, however that could be a very completely different concern, since they nicely would possibly nonetheless be claimed. Relating to the UN, absurdity isn’t any impediment.
These monumental numbers dwarf the current COP27 negotiations, the place the finance concern is perhaps upping whole monetary flows from $100 billion a 12 months to $1 trillion. None of that’s for so-called “loss and injury”, which is additional. Observe that even the $100 billion has by no means been paid.
Earlier than the “loss and injury” talks proceed we should always ask “What sort of cash are we speaking about?” As a result of there is no such thing as a level in speaking about paying the creating international locations tons of of trillions of {dollars}. It can not occur.
That no numbers have been included within the “reparations” laden information protection is important. Why this preposterous Colombian declare didn’t make headlines is itself a telling query. I discovered it buried because the third story in a e-newsletter from the Local weather House Information (CHN).
See https://mailchi.mp/climatehome/everybody-needs-good-neighbours?e=edd9ee2911
One would count on the large inexperienced media just like the Washington Publish, New York Instances, BBC, CNN and the Guardian to be throughout this story. I’m positive their local weather reporters all learn CHN. But it surely would possibly scare developed international locations away from the desk, proper? And we simply acquired them there, proper? Finest be quiet.
After all it’s doable that Colombia is simply an astronomical outlier. In different phrases a criminal. Perhaps no different creating nation goes to provide you with absurd numbers like this. Effectively we should always actually wait and see.
In line with the CHN article, the Interamerican Growth Band is sponsoring related “loss and injury” analyses by Panama and Peru. We should always a minimum of wait till these numbers come out earlier than getting into into any negotiations. In any case, if their numbers are like Colombia’s then there may be nothing to barter.
As an apart, it might be that the banks love these massive numbers as a result of they might get to deal with the motion. And in relation to reparations, the extra the higher, proper?
Talking of nothing to barter, there have been a number of token contributions to a future UN “loss and injury” fund. I feel a minimum of Denmark, New Zealand and Scotland have every promised $10 million or so. In comparison with the astounding Colombian numbers that is as nothing, a tiny fraction of spherical off error, because it had been.
As a closing thought, how can a rustic constantly lose over twice its GDP every year and nonetheless survive? Certainly this can be a hoax.
No negotiation ought to proceed till the numbers are recognized.
David Wojick, Ph.D. is an impartial analyst working on the intersection of science, expertise and coverage. For origins see http://www.stemed.data/engineer_tackles_confusion.html For over 100 prior articles for CFACT see http://www.cfact.org/writer/david-wojick-ph-d/ Out there for confidential analysis and consulting.
