With the latest Opinium survey having the CON lead down to only 2% it opens up an opportunity {that a} CON lead in June or July would possibly simply be value a punt.
As I write Smarkets have 20/1 on a June Tory lead and provided that Opinium must be reporting once more subsequent Saturday evening then who is aware of?
Not one of the different pollsters have gotten that shut and as could be seen, a lot of the current polls have LAB 6-7% forward. For July the present odds are 9.4. These are the market guidelines:
This market relate to the headline, rounded proportion voting figures for UK or GB common election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will likely be settled as a winner if any of the next polling firms publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Conservative occasion: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG.
Discover that Techne just isn’t included on the checklist.
Mike Smithson
