From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THIS
By Paul Homewood
h/t Dave Ward
California’s electrical grid faces years of potential blackouts and failure as state leaders proceed pushing aggressive measures to transition to renewable power sources, coverage specialists inform Fox Information Digital.
The state’s grid, which continues to be primarily powered by fossil fuels, is present process a serious shift from pure gasoline and coal energy to renewable energy like wind and photo voltaic. Concurrently, state officers are pushing an electrification of the financial system, significantly within the transportation sector by means of electrical automobile mandates, which is anticipated to extend stress on the grid.
“California is drastically slicing our dependence on fossil fuels and cleansing our air,” Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom mentioned in a November announcement unveiling the “world’s first detailed pathway to carbon neutrality.”
The state’s plan entails objectives to slash greenhouse gasoline emissions by 85%, lower oil utilization by 94% and deploy extra photo voltaic and wind capability over the following twenty years. The aggressive plan to overtake the state’s power system got here three months after a prime California environmental company moved ahead with a rule requiring all new automobile gross sales to be electrical by 2035.
In 2021, the latest yr with knowledge, wind and photo voltaic accounted for about 25% of whole electrical energy generated in California whereas pure gasoline accounted for greater than 50% of in-state electrical energy era. And 19% of recent automobile gross sales in California have been zero-emission automobiles, state knowledge confirmed.
Consultants informed Fox Information Digital environmental mandates carried out by Newsom and his administration have already created instability within the grid, a difficulty they argued would solely worsen as current fossil gas energy era capability was taken offline and changed by intermittent sources.
“They’re going to need to construct an outrageous quantity of wind and photo voltaic in a really brief time in the event that they wish to accomplish their targets of electrifying — our complete transportation sector and our complete residence heating and cooling and residential sector,” Edward Ring, a senior fellow with and co-founder of the California Coverage Middle, informed Fox Information Digital in an interview.
“There’s a burden to the buyer that’s going to get very heavy,” he continued. “Even when they will pull it off with out blackouts, the burden to the buyer goes to be ridiculous.”
The total article is nicely price studying right here.
The size of the transition is clear from the present power combine in California:
https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CA
In line with the California Vitality Fee:
“To succeed in the 2045 goal whereas electrifying different sectors to fulfill the state’s economywide local weather objectives, California might want to roughly triple its present electrical energy grid capability.”
My calculations counsel that is underestimated. Present grid capability is 81 GW, together with about 40 GW of renewables, together with hydro. The CAC figures indicate about 240 GW in whole by 2045. Provided that there aren’t any plans to construct new nuclear, and hydro is just about restricted to present capacities, most of this further capability must be photo voltaic.
Wind energy, by the way in which, is as unreliable as it’s on this nation, as the newest knowledge reveals. It will be suicidal for California to rely closely on wind energy:
Electrical energy solely accounts for about 30% of whole power utilization in California. However the 2045 decarbonisation targets indicate that this ratio must rise to perhaps 90%, with the electrification of vehicles, heating, business and so forth.
In different phrases, electrical energy era might have to triple, which perhaps is what the CAC imply. However as a result of wind and solar energy have such low utilisation charges, the capability must rise rather more than thrice.
Under is my again of the Gamers Weights packet, assuming hydro, bio and geo keep the identical as now, and wind energy doubles. Below this state of affairs, solar energy era would wish to rise to 540 TWh from its present stage of 33 TWh:
Photo voltaic capability would wish to extend from 14 GW to 229 GW, with whole grid capability rising to 260 GW. However these figures assume that photo voltaic panel productiveness is identical all yr spherical, at present round 25%.
Throughout winter months that is a lot much less; on Feb twelfth, as an illustration, utilisation fell to 18%. Permitting for system reserves and contingencies, you’ll in all probability need to plan on a determine of about 15%, which might imply you would wish photo voltaic capability of 410 GW, slightly than 229 GW. Inevitably a lot of this is able to be redundant for a lot of the yr. (The choice could be to supply battery storage for seasonal peaks in demand and troughs in era, however I think this is able to be prohibitively costly).
You may additionally have so as to add extra capability to deal with demand throughout heatwaves, which may add 30 GW to common utilization.
Two different issues to contemplate:
- California will get a few third of its energy from different states, 84 TWh in 2021. No less than half of that is fossil gas/nuclear/hydro, which is able to both not be accessible in twenty years time, or within the case of hydro can’t be elevated. Given the probably scarcity of energy in different states, it could extraordinarily silly to depend on these imports going ahead.
- Gavin Newsom can also be relying closely on power effectivity, however any financial savings are prone to be offset by elevated demand. Having mentioned that, he’s doing such a superb job of operating the state that Californians are migrating in droves to states like Texas, Tennessee and Florida, together with chunks of the economic base, so that ought to assist!
Which brings us to the $64 billion (or is it trillion?) query – storage.
I’ve assumed for this train that storage is just wanted for twenty-four hour cycles, and that seasonal peaks are lined by putting in further era capability.
Battery storage wants would must be deliberate round winter, when era is at its lowest. My calculations counsel that storage would must be about 70% of each day consumption in mid-winter. Primarily based on 540 TWh a yr, and permitting for further demand for heating in winter. each day consumption of solar energy could be about 1.6 TWh, giving a storage of 1.12 TWh. (Present battery storage by comparability is 4316 MWh – in different phrases California would wish greater than one million instances as a lot storage because it has now!).
However because the CAC conveniently level out, battery capability shortly declines:
https://www.power.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac
There would in all probability must be a continuing, rolling 10-year substitute programme for batteries. Over that life span, common capability could also be not more than 50% in efficient phrases, given that you just can not run batteries dry. In order that 1.12 TWh must be doubled to 2.24 TWh. (The concept, by the way in which, that you’d wish to run your grid on second hand automobile batteries reveals simply how ramshackle this complete programme is! It will be self defeating, in any case, as a result of these automobile batteries would quickly be ineffective).
At the moment battery costs are round $200/KWh. Laughingly the CAC count on these to fall by two thirds, on the again of rising demand for EVs. The dolts haven’t labored out that elevated demand will ship costs of the uncooked supplies wanted a lot increased!
https://www.power.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac
So, working with the present $200, that 2.24 TWh would price $448 billion. With a ten yr life, that’s $44.8 billion yearly. And that’s solely the price of the battery; there vis additionally the price of infrastructure, switchgear, transmission networks and labour to contemplate. I doubt you’ll get a lot change out of $100 billion. And that is yearly hereafter.
It’s normally claimed that renewable power reduces dependence on petro-state dictators. It’s at all times a foolish argument, as a result of you should buy fossil fuels from around the globe, and the US may very well be autonomous if it needed to.
However this suicidal lurch to solar energy brings with it a a lot larger geopolitical threat. A grid that’s wholly depending on batteries would put California on the mercy of China’s monopoly of batteries and the uncooked supplies that go into them.
And as soon as California has gone down that path, there could be no method again.
