Many years of pioneering analysis by a Met Workplace-based local weather scientist has been honoured with the presentation of a prestigious worldwide local weather medal.
Doug’s work first got here to prominence in 2007 when he printed a seminal paper within the journal Science when he confirmed that together with preliminary atmospheric situations in addition to the forcing from greenhouse gases may result in elevated accuracy and talent in local weather predictions.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of the realm by which Doug works, mentioned: “Since Doug’s ground-breaking examine there was an explosion of exercise among the many worldwide scientific group, and a number of teams are actually taking these concepts and embarking on their very own initialized local weather predictions.”
Doug has now prolonged his work to point out that even excessive occasions, comparable to Atlantic hurricanes, might be predicted on multiyear timescales which is now resulting in functions within the insurance coverage sector. He has additionally been concerned in cryospheric science. In recent times Doug has co-led the Polar Amplification Modelling Intercomparison Venture, bringing collectively a number of analysis teams worldwide to make use of an unprecedented massive ensemble of particular person local weather simulations to pin down the atmospheric response to sea ice decline in state-of-the-art local weather fashions.
In distinction to a few of the wild claims that have been being made on the time concerning the influence of sea ice decline on excessive winters, this very level-headed piece of labor has proven that there is a response within the mid-latitudes: the jet stream does weaken and transfer additional south as sea ice declines, however it’s too small an impact, a minimum of within the present local weather fashions, to clarify particular person chilly winters.
Doug has additionally carried out main analysis on the opportunity of local weather fashions underestimating predictable alerts, the so-called “signal-to-noise paradox”. Doug was concerned proper from the start in uncovering this paradox, which stays unresolved. Doug’s deep and clear considering has helped to deliver this to the eye of the local weather science group, and it’s now creating widespread curiosity.
Doug is the primary British winner of the Hans Oeschger Medal award for 18 years.
