I can see why Smarkets have put this market up, I can see why folks may need to again both aspect. On the Sure aspect I can see a by election being triggered by Boris Johnson eager to earn tens of millions exterior the glare of parliament and the register of members’ monetary pursuits, wanting a chic means of doing a hen run to a safer seat, or scandal.
I stated on the time if Boris Johnson hadn’t already introduced his resignation he would have been compelled to resign as a result of as Overseas Secretary he met an ex-KGB agent and successfully admitted that ‘sure I met a KGB spy with out authorities officers, no I didn’t inform officers about this and I can’t affirm that state enterprise wasn’t talked about.’
On the flip aspect I can see Boris Johnson wanting to stay an MP so he may substitute Liz Truss as chief earlier than the following election if she proves to be extra flat than fizz and fails to dominate the nation and celebration.
I’d want a bit higher odds than 2.1 to guess on there being a by election in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and I don’t like tying up my cash for doubtlessly over 2 years for a 1.74 return. If the chances change then it could be price revisiting this market.
TSE
