With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in energetic dialogue about crossing the ground to hitch LAB the above guess from Smarkets appears is perhaps worth. In response to the paper:
Labour sources informed The Telegraph that the three male Conservatives, first elected in 2019, have entered formal discussions about crossing the ground to hitch Sir Keir Starmer’s celebration. These accustomed to discussions mentioned the MPs had slim majorities in Crimson Wall areas within the North which have traditionally voted Labour and believed they might lose their seats on the subsequent election if they didn’t defect. It’s understood the three have felt dissatisfied with Boris Johnson’s management in latest weeks and have been pushed in direction of the choice after a confidence vote by which 148 Tory MPs didn’t again the Prime Minister.
The market guidelines are “This market pertains to whether or not any Conservative MP will defect to the Labour celebration earlier than 1 August 2022. Solely MPs who’re at the moment taking the Conservative whip will rely.”
It’s true to say that there’s a lengthy historical past of attainable defection reviews like this and only a few really quantity to it occurring.
An enormous drawback for the attainable receiving celebration is what to do if the potential defector needs a assure that he’ll be capable to contest the seat on the subsequent common election. This may be exhausting for the management to sq. with native events – in spite of everything they might have fought exhausting towards him on the earlier common election.
There’s a chance that this can be a story that has been planted merely so as to add to the issues on the federal government aspect.
As a common rule you solely hear about an actual cross the ground after it has taken place.
Mike Smithson
