A number of of the rivers in and round Yellowstone Park skilled record-breaking flows this week and my podcast right this moment tells the story. And I additionally present the forecast for the Northwest over the following week
As I focus on in my podcast, there are two predominant components behind the Yellowstone flooding: (1) the melting of an excessive snowpack and (2) heavy localized rain. And to make this occur in such an excessive manner, plenty of shifting items needed to come collectively.
The snowpack on June eleventh, proper earlier than the flooding, was excessive, with the regional terrain having snowpack water percentages of a whole lot of % above regular (see under). Which means LOTS of water able to soften. This snowpack was the results of our cool, moist spring.
June eleventh snowpack % of regular
Warming temperatures earlier than and through final weekend resulted in substantial melting.
After which there was the rainfall. A plume of moisture moved in from the southwest–an atmospheric river–and was directed proper into the Yellowstone area, the place a small space of enhanced precipitation occurred (see forecast precipitation for the 72 h ending Tuesday at 5 AM PDT). Forecasts had been wonderful by the way in which.
This rain not solely contributed to the river rise however helped soften the snow as properly. Check out just a few of the regional precipitation totals under: spectacular, with values as excessive as 3-4 inches over the weekend.
One other approach to view the mixed results of precipitation and melting is to look at the observations at a USDA Snotel website, the place each snowpack and precipitation are measured.
Take into account the close by Monument Peak, Montana location. The collected precipitation is black and the quantity of water within the snowpack is proven by blue. Early this week the black line went up shortly (plenty of rain) and the snowpack plummeted. A LOT of water turned accessible for native rivers.
I finish the podcast speaking about whether or not international warming performed a major position within the flooding, one thing claimed by a number of main media retailers and a few local weather activists.
The proof clearly suggests a minor position for international warming. The large snowpack was a serious contributor and international warming typically REDUCES snowpack. The place of key options, just like the atmospheric river and a growing low over land, haven’t any evident international warming connections.
The planet has warmed by roughly 1 C throughout the previous century, and let’s assume that people are the only trigger. 1C elevated would enhance atmospheric water vapor by 6-7%, maybe sufficient to barely improve the flooding, however nothing extra.
The devastating occasion would have occurred anyway.
Some main podcast servers:
Just like the podcast? Assist on Patreon
