As Eric promised yesterday, winter isn’t but over of us. Stepping outdoors right this moment, you’ll discover it feels a bit extra like January maybe. And whereas we do have hotter climate on the horizon, it’s fairly evident that winter isn’t fairly able to pack its baggage simply but. On the backside of right this moment’s put up, I’ve acquired a fast replace on a some “polar vortexy” issues which may be in your thoughts.
In the present day
“Blustery” is the phrase of the day. Winds are going to select up this morning, and as temperatures stall a bit later this afternoon within the 50s, you’ll discover a bit chill to the air.
Northerly wind gusts could exceed 20 to 25 mph at occasions on land and over 30 mph alongside the coast (the place a wind advisory is posted) and over the water.
Tonight
Winds will keep up some tonight, and temperatures behind right this moment’s chilly entrance will drop into the 40s and doubtless the 30s in lots of spots too. The wild card tonight might be how far west clouds are in a position to pivot. Whereas they most likely gained’t have a big influence on what you discover tonight, they’ll possible imply the distinction between 40 to 45 levels for a nighttime low or 35 to 40 levels, the place skies are clear.
Weekend
The weekend seems nice for any plans you could have. Sunshine will dominate Saturday and Sunday with highs within the mid-50s Saturday and low-60s on Sunday. Morning lows might be within the 30s as soon as extra tomorrow evening with a light-weight freeze attainable in spots north and west of Houston particularly.
Subsequent week
The climate goes to be a bit chaotic subsequent week from a pure daily perspective. By way of impacts, we don’t see something too main proper now. We have now two fronts that look poised to push by the world. The primary would come Tuesday after a heat and humid Monday. After a quick cooldown Wednesday, we’d heat up late and into Thursday in time for the following entrance. Very similar to right this moment’s entrance, this one has been flagging a little bit of wind with it in varied mannequin steerage, in order that’s one factor we’ll look ahead to Thursday afternoon. Behind that entrance, we’d flip moderately chilly Friday and Saturday once more. We’ll type the main points out for you additional on Monday.
Stratospheric state of affairs
We’re starting to get some questions in regards to the potential breakdown of the polar vortex over the following couple weeks, with the thesis usually being that because the polar vortex weakens from the highest (stratosphere) down (floor), it unloads colder air from the polar areas into mid-latitudes, the place most of us reside. Or as some misleadingly qualify it: “The polar vortex is coming.”
The catalyst for this is able to be a sudden warming of temperatures within the stratosphere (or SSW as many people confer with it). The Washington Put up’s Capital Climate Gang had piece on this yesterday with quotes from some specialists I comply with on social media. It could or will not be paywalled, however the basic gist of issues is that this: There’s a sudden warming of the stratosphere over the polar areas, hundreds of ft above the floor. It fractures the in any other case secure polar vortex within the stratosphere. A course of begins that steadily works its method from the stratosphere into the troposphere (the place we reside) that may start a domino impact of maybe reshuffling the climate sample within the Northern Hemisphere in such a method that favors colder climate over hotter climate as we head into March.
“May” doesn’t imply “will.” Nothing is assured, as not all SSWs are created equal, and never all of them result in a configuration supportive of chilly within the Central & Japanese U.S. Researchers are nonetheless working to totally perceive the components concerned in a lot of these occasions that occur each few years, so we nonetheless have loads to be taught earlier than we are able to begin discussing something with confidence. In different phrases, neither Eric or myself or anybody is aware of if we’ll see some important colder climate subsequent month. That being stated, as we head into subsequent week and the week of the twentieth, it is going to be attention-grabbing to see what the fashions begin displaying for the sample over America. We’ll have a good concept if this SSW has a significant influence on chilly dangers for the nation later subsequent week or early the next week I believe. So keep tuned, however in the event you love chilly, preserve your expectations considerably in examine.
