I’ve typically prevented betting on all issues associated to a future Scottish independence referendum as a result of again in 2014 I genuinely anticipated the difficulty had been settled for a technology and didn’t fancy tying my cash up for many years.
After the enjoyable of the Theresa Could exit date and the 2020 Presidential markets fiasco I’m additionally eager to keep away from bets the place the bets are sick outlined, ambiguous, or are randomly modified by the bookie after I’ve made the guess.
After Nicola Sturgeon’s current bulletins Betfair have up to date their guidelines which is able to screw up just a few betting positions.
So now we have differing guidelines from totally different bookmakers, I’m far more comfy with the Ladbrokes phrases merely there’s a lot potential to go flawed with a consultative plebiscite (such a Unionist boycott which sees Sure win with say 80% of the vote which might additionally influence different associated markets.)
The truth isn’t any UK Prime Minister will need the break up of the UK on their curriculum vitae* so they’ll delay any requests for a plebiscite (and the Scotland Act offers them the quilt for that). If Liz Truss needs to be ousted earlier than the subsequent normal election all she has to say she is going to give the go forward to a Part 30 order.
If now we have a UK normal election in 2024 and the one viable authorities is a Labour and SNP coalition/provide and confidence settlement and the SNP demand a plebiscite for placing Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Avenue I believe he’ll flip them down and darre them and ask will the SNP need to deliver down a Labour authorities and put the Tories in energy as a result of that labored out so effectively for the SNP in 1979.
In order that’s my logic for backing Not Earlier than 2025 within the Ladbrokes market and keep away from the Betfair market just like the plague. This Smarkets might enchantment to some, I feel the worth is likely to be with Sure given the phrases of the guess.
But when you will guess on Scottish independence please learn the phrases of the guess earlier than you guess and bear in mind they may change.
TSE
*I don’t assume Sure are sure to win, solely a clueless marvel would confidently predict the result of indyref2, however no UK PM will need to danger the break up of the UK on their CV.
