Good morning. It’s fairly evident that the heaviest rain will fall to our east as we speak. That mentioned, there are nonetheless storms and heavy ones at that within the space. A storm east of downtown dumped practically 3 inches of rain in an hour as of 6:20 AM, the place Brays Bayou crosses Lawndale Avenue on the East facet. That quantity of rain that quick could cause avenue flooding, so do preserve this in thoughts this morning as these downpours carry north and east throughout the world. It’s possible you’ll encounter avenue flooding, so please use warning and don’t drive by flooded roadways.
So with all that being mentioned, clearly, it will most likely find yourself a really disappointing system for our area as an entire, particularly for those who reside on the west facet. Coastal areas did properly yesterday, and as we speak’s rain will definitely be welcome. However nonetheless. Whereas we aren’t heading again into the sample we had in June, at the least not as excessive, it’s going to flip hotter and drier once more. We’ll have some each day rain possibilities to cling to every day, however that’s a proverbial drop within the bucket when it comes to what is required to eradicate drought.
Talking of, the drought monitor replace from yesterday, which incorporates rain by Tuesday confirmed that drought had expanded to cowl nearly the whole Houston area now, a really massive enhance in such a short while.
Relying on how the subsequent few weeks evolve, this might begin to change into a really dangerous drought for our area, or simply type of dangle in place “as is” for awhile. I’m personally not significantly optimistic given each nearer-term steerage and longer-range steerage, which continues to counsel under common rainfall. With the vacation weekend celebrations forward, please be aware of burn bans (which cowl virtually the whole state), and please be additional cautious with fireworks this yr. I’ve not heard of any native fireworks bans past already present laws, however that doesn’t imply dry floor can’t ignite in some unintended conditions. So one of the best recommendation is to make use of extra warning than ordinary this yr.
Remainder of as we speak
This morning’s rain and localized downpours will proceed on and off by the morning, doubtless shifting east and weakening this afternoon. Most areas east of I-45 will see some rain, however quantities will broadly differ from one other 1 to three inches in spots to just some tenths in others. West of I-45, you will notice remoted showers or storms, with many spots seeing nothing. The exception will likely be south of Houston. Areas throughout a lot of Brazoria and Galveston Counties will proceed to see scattered storms into early afternoon.
Readers checking us out from Beaumont & Port Arthur will be aware some very heavy rain, particularly in Port Arthur this morning. I might presume avenue flooding is prone to start there quickly on a wider scale foundation. Use warning in that space this morning.
We solely managed 82° formally yesterday at Bush Airport, about 6 levels hotter than the document coolest excessive temp for the date. Clouds as we speak ought to maintain us again once more. Search for low to maybe mid 80s.
Weekend
With the tropical low lifting away, we’ll regularly slip again right into a extra regular summer season sample. Search for an opportunity of scattered showers or storms tomorrow, however protection doubtless gained’t exceed 30 or 40 p.c and once more centered to the east of downtown Houston. Sunday sees even decrease rain possibilities, most likely under 20 p.c. Search for highs to get better into the low or center 90s, with lows again into the higher 70s.
Subsequent week
The climate sample subsequent week is prone to be dominated initially by a reasonably robust ridge of excessive stress over Texas. This could preserve us primarily dry by Tuesday with mid to higher 90s. On Wednesday and Thursday, we’re prone to see the excessive stress relocate into the Rockies. Usually, this may open up the Gulf extra and permit for larger rain possibilities. On this case, the excessive additionally expands considerably.
It will give us possibly a day or two of elevated rain possibilities Wednesday and Thursday, however most likely no higher than 30 p.c or so. In any other case, search for mid to upper-90s to persist, and maybe drier climate into the weekend. Seeing a 600 decameter ridge on the map above is actually spectacular for a 50 member ensemble imply. Because of this the mannequin is very assured in a really robust warmth sample for the inside West, doubtless increasing to incorporate most of Texas heading towards the week of the eleventh. It gained’t be as sizzling relative to regular as June noticed, however it’s going to nonetheless be very, extremely popular.
June recap
We’ll shut with this: June 2022 was the most popular in Houston’s recorded historical past. Our common temperature in June was 86.7°, which broke 2011’s document by a half diploma (86.2°).
It was additionally the most popular June on document in Galveston by over a full diploma. June 2022 noticed 87.5° for a mean temperature, in comparison with 86.2° in June 2011. 87.5° for a month is hotter than any July on document as properly. In reality, June 2022 will find yourself being the 4th hottest month of any month on document in Galveston. Of the 60 doable excessive and heat low temperature data Galveston may have set in June, they set or tied 19 of them, over 30 p.c. Galveston’s data prolong again to 1874.
Numerous elements all play into these data: A particularly heat Gulf of Mexico, the drought, a stagnant climate sample, urbanization, and, sure, local weather change. Hopefully July is best behaved.
