Good morning. A tropical low strain system is nearing the South Texas coast this morning, and may start to maneuver inland in the present day. Consequently, starting tonight and on Friday, a lot of the Houston metro space is more likely to see reasonable to heavy rainfall. However the greatest risk ought to are available our coastal counties: Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Orange. Subsequently, for these areas we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our Flood Scale.
Broadly talking, we anticipate 4 to six inches of rain for coastal areas, which is quite a bit for 2 days, however since these areas have been so dry the totals needs to be manageable. Nonetheless, some mannequin knowledge signifies the potential for coastal areas to see bigger bullseyes of rain with this tropical air mass, and we’re monitoring this intently. Suffice it to say that we may have to extend the flood alert later in the present day to Stage 2, however don’t really feel assured in doing so now. (These bullseyes may additionally very properly miss offshore). We plan to replace you later in the present day as we all know extra.
The rest of the metro space ought to see extra reasonable totals of rainfall over the subsequent two days, usually 1 to 4 inches, with quantities reducing the additional inland you go. We don’t anticipate to want to difficulty any flood alerts for these areas, however once more we’re watching intently.
Thursday
We’ve seen some coastal showers develop previous to dawn and push inland, however this exercise will most likely wane later this morning. Extra scattered showers and thunderstorms are attainable this afternoon, however none of those are more likely to be too organized. Subsequently we expect in the present day needs to be business-as-normal for most individuals, and most actions. Search for highs within the higher 80s with largely cloudy skies. The specter of heavy rain from the tropical system most likely is not going to arrive till no less than midnight alongside the coast, and a bit later than than that for inland areas.
Friday
Proper now we expect Friday will yield probably the most hazardous climate when it comes to heavy rainfall. The important thing query, as we’ve been saying for a few days, is the place the tropical low finally strikes and brings its extreme moisture. We may discover ourselves in a state of affairs the place the heaviest rain stays largely offshore, or we may discover ourselves in a state of affairs the place Galveston Island receives 10 inches. What we are able to say for sure is that there’s the potential for very heavy rainfall on Friday for coastal counties, with lesser probabilities as one strikes into Harris County, and lesser probabilities nonetheless additional inland. The potential for heavy rainfall ought to exit coastal areas on Friday afternoon or night, and transfer north because the system can also be transferring to the north or northwest.
Saturday
The potential for widespread, reasonable to heavy rainfall will linger on Friday evening into Saturday morning because the tropical low begins to maneuver away from the realm, however we must always begin to see skies clearing out in the course of the afternoon hours, permitting highs to succeed in about 90 levels.
Sunday and Monday
The rest of the weekend ought to see largely sunny skies, with highs within the low- to mid-90s. There’s a slight probability of rain each days, however I might solely put it at 10 to fifteen %. Subsequently, there needs to be no climate issues for the Fourth of July vacation.
Subsequent week
Houston’s climate will fall again right into a sizzling and sunny sample for a lot of the remainder of subsequent week, with highs most likely within the mid-90s, or thereabouts. It will likely be a little bit heat for early July, however not excessively so.
We are going to put up an replace on the potential for flooding on Thursday afternoon or night.
