The snow forecast went fairly nicely this morning over western Washington, with parts of central Puget Sound selecting up the expected 1-2 inches (see noticed snowfall famous this morning by the CoCoRahs cooperative community).
This was a really troublesome forecast, with marginal temperatures. The type of forecast we couldn’t have executed 15-20 years in the past.
However there’s a draw back to this elevated forecast talent, a detrimental impression that instantly affected me this morning (see under). I used to be REALLY trying ahead to a pastry and cup of espresso earlier than I went to work on the UW. No luck.
One other snow occasion for western Washington looms…..and one other troublesome forecast.
Why troublesome? As a result of main climate prediction fashions have been in disagreement a couple of essential climate function, and we’re near the sting concerning temperatures over western Washington and Oregon.
There have been refined variations within the location of a low-pressure trough alongside the Washington/Oregon Coast that influences precipitation, and thus snow, over western Washington.
The European Heart was going for extra snow over central Puget Sound, however now the most recent U.S. GFS mannequin simulation (initialized 6-hr later) has joined within the snowy enjoyable.
Under are the forecast collected snowfall totals for each fashions by means of 4 PM Tuesday.
The European Heart exhibits over 5 inches for Seattle and Portland, besides proper close to the water.
The up to date U.S. GFS mannequin has a bit much less (word the scales are completely different) however continues to be a number of inches over Seattle and Portland. The mountains get hammered in each.
When will the snow arrive? Tuesday morning.
The European Heart is sort of assured snow is in our future. Under are the cumulative snowfall totals in Seattle from the massive and glorious EC ensemble system of many forecasts. Every line represents a special forecast run. Just about each run turns blue (snow). Purple is much more.
The typical of the ensemble forecasts for Seattle snow is proven under (gentle blue bars)–around 5 inches of snowfall is predicted. The strong line is a single higher-resolution prediction….much more.
Tomorrow I’ll present extra particulars based mostly on higher-resolution native simulations.
One remaining word: I ask that nobody tells the Grand Central Bakery in regards to the forecast. The explanations are apparent.
