With lower than every week of February to go, conversations are already being had about how dry the month has been, and what affect this might have.
This month, we’ve been exploring the theme of water safety and local weather change. However in additional granular element, February 2023’s lack of constant rain for a lot of the UK underlines a few of the widespread variations between climate and local weather, and the place there’s an overlap in challenges.
The summer time of 2022 noticed record-breaking temperatures when 40.3°C was recorded for the primary time within the UK. The primary eight months of that yr have been additionally the driest for the reason that infamously dry begin to 1976. With these notable climate occasions in thoughts, water assets have typically been within the information, and a drought was declared by the Surroundings Company for a lot of elements of the UK in August 2022.
That declaration of drought was subsequently eliminated for many areas as Autumn rainfall topped up assets for a lot of, although not all.
Drought comes right down to a spread of things and is rather more complicated than simply rainfall quantities, with hydrology, geography and infrastructure additionally influencing drought situations and the supply of water within the UK’s reservoirs. Nonetheless, a dry February has led to some hypothesis about climate tendencies in latest weeks.
Month to date
As much as 20 February, you’d anticipate to have round 71% of the month’s complete common rainfall. Nonetheless, the UK has at present had simply 36% (34.5mm) to date, in accordance with provisional Met Workplace figures.
However if you look into the regional knowledge, the dearth of rainfall turns into extra marked. Whereas Scotland has to date had 59% (83.5mm) of its common February rainfall, the south of England has had simply 6% (3.8mm). For England it has been the driest 1st to twentyth February since 1993.
Some particular person counties additionally stand out attributable to an absence of rainfall. Hertfordshire has had a median of simply 0.7mm of rain to date this month – simply 1% of its common for the entire month. On the time of writing 14 counties in central and southern England had recorded lower than 2mm of rainfall to date this month.
After all, these figures will change by the top of the month, however it does give a sign of fairly how dry this February has been to date. For a lot of of those areas the dry spell started in mid January. Pershore in Worcestershire for instance has had simply 1.6mm of rain since 15th January and for a lot of counties of central and southern England the interval from mid January to now has been a notable, however not document breaking, winter dry spell.
Mark McCarthy is the supervisor of the Nationwide Local weather Data Centre on the Met Workplace. He mentioned: “Though there’s nonetheless round every week left of February, it has been a notably dry month to date, particularly within the south of England.
“In brief, excessive stress has been dominant over the UK, serving to to repel rain-bearing methods throughout a lot of the nation, although many have managed to affect north-western areas at instances.”
Sam Larsen, Director of Programmes and Planning at Water UK, mentioned: “Water ranges within the atmosphere started to choose up following final summer time’s drought situations, however low rainfall this month means a majority of UK rivers are beneath regular ranges for this time of yr, that means there may be much less water out there for nature, agricultural abstraction, and public water provide.
“It stays to be seen whether or not rainfall ranges will choose up earlier than summer time. This, together with the lasting impacts of local weather change and inhabitants development, means it’s completely important that all of us proceed to avoid wasting water and assist safeguard towards potential future drought situations. For hints and tips about the best way to save water, cash and power, go to www.watersworthsaving.org.uk.”
A altering local weather and pure variability
Local weather change projections present an growing chance of hotter, drier summers and hotter, wetter winters, although the pure variation of rainfall patterns within the UK means this received’t be the case yearly. The month of February is itself a great indicator of the variability of the UK local weather with the driest month for the UK in a sequence again to 1884 being February 1932, when simply 9.5mm of rain fell. In distinction, February 2020 was the fourth wettest month on document with 213.7mm of rain.
Mark continued: “A moist Autumn final yr helped to get better a few of the rainfall deficits constructed up by the sooner a part of 2022, however the winter has seen two lengthy dry durations firstly in early December after which from mid-January and thru February, interspersed with a extra notably moist and unsettled interval in late December and early January. This displays the variability of a UK winter which is a vital consideration when contemplating the challenges offered by each short-term climate occasions and longer-term modifications in our local weather.”
The figures sited on this weblog are provisional Met Workplace figures as much as 20 February 2023.
