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HomeWales WeatherWeekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #540

Weekly Local weather and Power Information Roundup #540


The Week That Was: 2023-02-11 (February 11, 2023)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking

Quote of the Week: “No drawback will be solved from the identical stage of consciousness that created it.” – Albert Einstein

Variety of the Week: 10%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking (SEPP)

Scope: The problems addressed this week embody the next: In its newest Abstract for Policymakers (2021) the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) has tried to suppress pure variation from any discussions on local weather change over the past 2000 years. Ecologist Jim Steele continues to attempt to present a greater understanding of pure local weather change. Within the newest presentation he discusses the dynamics of Arctic sea ice and the way the emphasis on floor air temperatures hides necessary options of local weather dynamics.

Roy Spencer continues with the second a part of his efforts to estimate an affect of urbanization on land temperature-monitoring stations used within the World Historic Local weather Community (GHCN). Utilizing Landsat-based information he develops a median change over 40 years (1975 to 2014) for 19,885 GHCN stations from 20N to 82.5N latitude.

Judith Curry was interviewed by Jordan Peterson. She reported on the interview however didn’t touch upon the contents. In hopes that the textual content can be posted, TWTW will delay feedback. It acknowledges that Curry’s views on local weather modeling could differ from these expressed in TWTW. See hyperlinks underneath Searching for a Frequent Floor.

Planning engineer Russell Schussler and New York power commentator Roger Caiazza current conventional planning for brand spanking new technology and discover traits for path transferring in direction of Internet Zero emissions of carbon dioxide within the technology of electrical energy. Many politicians have embraced shutting down electrical energy technology utilizing fossil fuels however haven’t fastidiously thought of what is accessible to switch them. Can the replacements present dependable, reasonably priced electrical energy?

Manhattan legal professional Francis Menton continues his name for an indication undertaking for use to calculate the actual prices of offering electrical energy by wind and photo voltaic technology plus the mandatory storage.

Jennifer Marohasy continues her efforts to acquire the information of a climate station in Australia the place each thermometer probes and mercury-based thermometers had been used concurrently. Such information are wanted to determine a interval of standardization exhibiting each sorts of devices measure the identical factor the identical means.

Power skilled Donn Dears begins a sequence to mentioned supplies wanted to transform the car business to 100% battery powered autos. He begins with a cloth that’s seldom mentioned – graphite.

This week, the US army capturing down climate balloons grew to become a information fad. Climate balloons are extraordinarily necessary in climate forecasting and in acquiring data wanted for contemporary atmospheric science (fairly than hypothesis). For instance, the HITRAN database utilized by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer is predicated on laboratory measurements underneath perfect circumstances. Strain and temperature, nevertheless, modify the cross-sections in calculable methods. The climate balloons give them the info they should make the corrections. Cliff Mass explains the devices on board and the wind currents that can be utilized to trace the trail of climate balloons.

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Altering Arctic Ice: Few acts higher exemplify the disregard the IPCC and its authors have for scientific integrity than the sudden inclusion within the Abstract for Policymakers (SPM, AR6, 2021) of a two-thousand-year hockey-stick (Determine SPM.1) underneath the heading “Human affect warmed the local weather at a price that’s unprecedented in at the very least the final 2000 years.” The graph even exhibits the current warming larger than the “Warmest multi-century interval in additional than 100,000 years.” Not said is that the reconstruction is manufactured from tiny bits and items of proxy information, not standardized, or calibrated to make sure they measure the identical factor. It’s like calling furnishings manufactured from sawdust and glue with a skinny veneer stable wooden. In a protracted sequence of posts, mentioned in previous TWTWs, Stephen McIntyre has demolished this false “hockey-stick..”

In a transparent video with textual content, Jim Steele discusses the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability or Multidecadal Oscillation which represents 20 plus years of hotter temperatures within the north Atlantic than the south, then reversing. He concludes:

“This oscillation is intimately linked to variability of the floor currents within the Atlantic’s floor Meridional Overturning circulation inside the Ocean Conveyor Belt.

“First detected within the Nineteen Eighties and formally named round 2000, the constructive part represents a hotter north Atlantic that’s linked to a number of local weather dynamics. From the Thirties to 60s after which Nineties to current, the constructive heat phases had been related to much less Arctic sea ice, elevated Sahel rainfall, elevated hurricane exercise, and frequent warmth extremes within the southwestern USA.

“The detrimental part from the Sixties to 1990 …, noticed a reversal of these dynamics as Arctic sea ice rebounded from its Thirties low extent. Accordingly, a 40-year analysis undertaking over the Arctic ocean throughout a cool part and printed in 1993 decided there was an “absence of proof for greenhouse warming” over the Arctic ocean.”

To construct to this conclusion, Steele begins:

Nonetheless, a doubtful narrative uncritically attributes rising CO2 to these [Arctic temperature] anomalies, then speculates a few future warming disaster whereas ignoring necessary pure dynamics akin to ocean currents.

However there’s a wealth of scientific analysis that has proven ocean currents also can trigger these greater temperature anomalies, however that isn’t apparent from this anomaly illustration. So as to add to the misunderstanding, the excessive Arctic temperatures are paradoxically as a consequence of warmth ventilating out from the ocean and cooling the earth, thus really stopping future excessive warming.

The nice and cozy 2016 winter temperatures within the japanese tropical Pacific had been brought on by a pure El Nino occasion that additionally ventilated warmth beforehand saved within the western Pacific, briefly warming the air however once more really cooling the earth.

El Nino occasions additionally contribute to hotter sea floor temperatures just by lowering the commerce winds that drive upwelling of chilly subsurface water. Such warming when upwelling is inhibited is noticed globally. For instance, a 3-month examine confirmed how month-to-month adjustments in wind course … precipitated a 6 to 8C (11-14F) floor temperature change.

Alongside the coast of Oregon, when winds blow in a southward course, upwelling is enhanced, and floor temperatures fall …

Conversely, when winds blow to the north upwelling of cooler deeper water is inhibited inflicting temperatures to rise by 6-8C (11-14F).

Such dramatic pure temperature adjustments don’t have anything to do with radiative heating from the solar or greenhouse gases. Nonetheless hotter temperatures from decreased upwelling are sometimes mistakenly included into the worldwide common temperature as seen throughout El Nino occasions after which attributed to CO2 warming.

It’s much more insightful to know local weather change by precise temperature adjustments. Utilizing publicly out there nationwide climate service information, a fast survey of subarctic temperatures on January twenty ninth, 2023, at 60 levels latitude simply south of the Arctic Circle, reveals how ocean currents alone trigger large temperature variations.

Steele exhibits that temperatures various considerably on that date. He additional states:

“Although all measurements had been taken on the identical latitude, on the identical date and identical time, there’s a big 40C or 73F temperature distinction between the Hudson Bay and Norwegian coast.

“Indisputably, that variability is brought on by warmth transported northward by ocean currents and ventilated to the Arctic environment. It’s the ocean currents which might be the Arctic’s local weather ‘management knob,’ not atmospheric greenhouse warming, as witnessed by the extraordinarily chilly Hudson Bay.”

Steele provides maps exhibiting the varied currents within the North Atlantic and the Arctic and asserts that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are poorly correlated with the extent of Arctic winter sea ice. He discusses the ceaselessly ignored deep basins within the Arctic Ocean that maintain the nice and cozy and funky waters for as much as two to a few a long time.

He then goes into the perplexing drawback of the Youthful Dryas, a sudden cooling lasting about 1300 years adopted by a sudden warming, between roughly 12900 and 11600 years in the past, which CO2 concentrations can not clarify. Steele suggests:

“Pure dynamics have an effect on the stream of warmth within the Atlantic phase of the Ocean Conveyor Belt. One dynamic is the placement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (or ITCZ) which precipitated a dramatic temperature impact on the finish of the final ice age.

“Ice core information present temperatures that had been quickly warming instantly dropped by 20C or 36F within the northern hemisphere for a few thousand years throughout a chilly interval known as the Youthful Dryas (YD). In distinction, southern hemisphere temperatures barely warmed.

“Proxy information suggests the westward commerce winds and ITCZ had shifted southward inflicting the nice and cozy South Equatorial Present (SEC) to additionally shift southward. Brazil’s japanese most land, Ponta do Seixas amplified that shift by deflecting extra heat water again into the south Atlantic and thus cooling the north Atlantic.

“The hotter 10,000 years of the Holocene interval correlates with the ITCZ shifting northward, inflicting the nice and cozy South Equatorial Present to ship extra heat water throughout the equator, to heat the north Atlantic whereas cooling the south.

“An identical however smaller southward shift of the ITCZ corresponds with the Little Ice Age which principally cooled the northern Atlantic areas. The Little Ice Age ended round 1850 because the ITCZ moved northward for our most up-to-date 150 years.”

Steele doesn’t focus on it however his dialogue of adjustments within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could apply to the well-recognized Dansgaard-Oeschger occasions (D-O occasions). These are durations of fast warming adopted by gradual cooling lasting about 1500 years. These have been noticed in ice cores taken in Greenland and elsewhere within the North Atlantic and to a lesser extent in glaciers in South America and Antarctica. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, https://climateaudit.org, and Unstoppable World Warming by Singer and Avery https://www.amazon.com/Unstoppable-World-Warming-Up to date-Expanded/dp/0742551245

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How Biased? John Christy and Roy Spencer have been analyzing the results of city warmth island results (UHI) on GHCN stations to attempt to estimate the affect of urbanization on reported temperature tendencies, that are utilized by authorities entities to watch world warming and are utilized in world local weather fashions. Spencer stories that not one of the 19,885 GHCN stations skilled detrimental development. Utilizing 21×21 km grids and Landsat-based urbanization values (which he phrases BU). He writes:

Whereas everyone knows that city areas are hotter than rural areas, particularly at night time and throughout the summer season, does a rise in urbanization result in spurious warming on the GHCN stations that skilled development (which is almost all of them)?

And, even when it did, does the homogenization process NOAA makes use of to right for spurious temperature results take away (even partially) city warmth island (UHI) results on reported temperature tendencies? [Italics in original]

“John Christy and I’ve been analyzing these questions by evaluating the GHCN temperature dataset (each unadjusted and adjusted [homogenized] variations) to those Landsat-based measurements of human settlement constructions, which I’ll simply name “urbanization”.

“Right here’s what I’m discovering to this point.

“The Strongest UHI Warming with Urbanization Development Happens at Almost-Rural Stations [Boldface in original.]

“…the city warmth island impact is strongly nonlinear, with (for instance) a 2% improve in urbanization at rural websites producing way more warming than a 2% improve at an city web site. Which means a local weather monitoring dataset utilizing mostly-rural stations is just not immune from spurious warming from creeping urbanization, except there was completely zero development. [Italics in original]

Spencer develops a easy mannequin to estimate seasonal common of UHI and finds that changes by NOAA on the temperature tendencies for urbanization improve, not lower, warming tendencies. He writes:

“Thus, it seems that NOAA’s homogenization process is spuriously warming station temperature tendencies (on common) when it ought to be cooling them. I don’t know the way to conclude any completely different.

“Why are the NOAA changes going within the flawed course? I don’t know.

“To say the least, I discover these outcomes… curious.

“OK, so how large is that this spurious warming impact on land temperature tendencies within the GHCN dataset? [Boldface in original]

“Earlier than you leap to the conclusion that GHCN temperature tendencies have an excessive amount of spurious warming to be relied upon for monitoring world warming, what I’ve proven doesn’t inform us by simply how a lot the land-average temperature tendencies are biased upward. I’ll tackle that in Half III.

“My very preliminary calculations to this point (utilizing the UHI curves in Fig. 4 utilized to the 21×21 km urbanization development curve in Fig. 2) [Figures not shown here] counsel the UHI warming averaged over all stations is about 10-20% of the GHCN tendencies. Small, however not insignificant. However that might change as I dig deeper into the problem.”

See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Good or Unhealthy Plans: In a protracted put up discussing plans by authorities entities, together with New York State, Russell Schussler and Roger Caiazza carry out the distinction of excellent and unhealthy plans for utilities to have the ability to develop electrical technology plans which want a planning horizon of about 30 years. Schussler and Caiazza write:

“Unhealthy plans assume that important parts of the long run are all identified. Unhealthy plans are narrowly constructed to a specified future. They threat not permitting the flexibleness to adapt when issues prove in another way than deliberate. Good plans take a look at their impacts or present selections throughout all kinds of potential futures. Good plans present flexibility and nimbleness for when future circumstances change.”

“Good technology plans acknowledge how folks want to make use of electrical energy. If conduct must be modified, they’re delicate to the capabilities and limits of incentives. Relying on the technology combine the worth of electrical energy will seemingly fluctuate significantly throughout hours, days, months, and seasons. Good plans will search to offer worth. Unhealthy plans have a tendency to not differentiate between when and the way power may be provided. Plans crafted based mostly on simply common use and common prices will seemingly not have good outcomes. Historically technology planning acknowledged baseload, intermediate and peaking wants. Whereas many appear to neglect these distinctions when evaluating options, their significance has not diminished.”

“Good plans take a look at main environmental impacts throughout the manufacturing and lifelong of a useful resource. Unhealthy plans are inclined to look solely at marginal impacts when the services are working. Large assets and prices are incurred simply getting a producing useful resource in place. Typically, the longer that useful resource can function, the higher its common environmental influence may be. Good plans ought to take into account the real looking lifetime of potential useful resource. Many “inexperienced” assets projected to final 30 years fall far shy of 20 years. Typical assets usually are able to lasting a few years past the thirty-year examine life.”

“Good plans depend on confirmed expertise that may fulfill the precise necessities. For instance, offering energy for durations of peak load is required for dependable energy when it’s wanted most. Peak masses are usually related to the most popular and coldest durations of the yr when electrical energy is used for cooling and heating. Sometimes, these durations happen lower than 5% of the time so a expertise ought to be as low value as potential to maintain the value of electrical energy down throughout peak masses. A superb plan would make the wise resolution to maintain an outdated fossil fired plant round to assist the system meet peak masses. Fossil-fired steam boiler electrical producing items are a confirmed expertise that can be utilized to satisfy this want.”

“Unhealthy plans presume {that a} new expertise can fulfill particular wants. A essential part of any future system is reliable emergency capability. For instance, a system would possibly want emergency capability as soon as each 5 years as a consequence of excessive climate both inflicting very excessive masses, an surprising long-term outage of present assets, or due to an prolonged drought of wind and photo voltaic assets. A nasty plan proposes a brand new expertise for this emergency requirement. As a way to present capability in a zero-emissions electrical system a brand new class of producing assets known as Dispatchable Emissions-Free Assets (DEFR) has been steered to maintain the lights on in periods of prolonged low wind and photo voltaic useful resource availability.”

They consider the New York State plan and discover it wanting. Amongst different issues the Dispatchable Emissions-Free Assets (DEFR) is “inexperienced hydrogen” which is, to this point, a fantasy. The authors suggest a compromise plan. See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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A Demonstration Undertaking? In demanding an indication undertaking for a grid based mostly on renewables and storage Francis Menton discusses the skyrocketing prices of electrical energy in Germany, the UK and California. He writes:

“It doesn’t take a genius to determine why the prices explode. They’ll construct hundreds of wind generators and photo voltaic panels, however they will’t do away with any of the dispatchable energy vegetation as a result of they’re all wanted for backup. So now they’re paying for 2 duplicative programs.  Then they need to pay the dispatchable vegetation sufficient to cowl their capital prices at half time utilization. Then they need to purchase the fossil fuels for backup on spot markets the place manufacturing has been suppressed by, for instance, banning fracking.”

As Menton explains, many politicians and educational “consultants” ignore such particulars. Menton concludes:

“No person could be happier than me to see an indication undertaking constructed that confirmed that wind and photo voltaic may present dependable electrical energy at low value. Sadly, I do know an excessive amount of in regards to the topic to assume that that’s seemingly, and even remotely potential. However at the very least the remainder of us have to demand an indication undertaking from the promoters of those fantasies.”

See hyperlink underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.

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Mysterious Vanishing? Jennifer Marohasy continues her seek for information from mercury thermometers and platinum resistance probes in Mildura for September 23, 2017 – “the most popular day ever recorded.” This was branded the most popular day in Australia’s historical past and Mildura had each sorts of information. She has found that there are not any parallel information for that day. She has obtained over 10,000 scanned pages from January 1, 1989, to January 31, 2015, with on daily basis within the scorching month of September 2012 lacking. Marohasy attracts no conclusions. See hyperlink underneath Measurement Points – Floor

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I Pencil: Donn Dears begins a sequence to mentioned supplies wanted to transform the car business to 100% battery powered autos with a dialogue of graphite. In response to Dears:

“If each automotive offered within the US in 2019, the yr earlier than the pandemic, had been a battery-powered automobile, the US would have used 1.12 million tons of graphite. Greater than the world consumed in 2021.”

On condition that mining permits are just about inconceivable to acquire within the US and Washington is denying growth of Federal lands, the US vehicle business would want to import graphite from different nations akin to China. See hyperlink underneath Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Automobiles and Article #1

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Using the Winds: Climate balloons are very a lot within the information. Cliff Mass has two posts discussing the devices on board a typical climate balloon and the way balloons can be utilized to make the most of completely different winds at completely different altitudes to be guided to a specific space or area. See hyperlinks underneath Different Scientific Information.

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Past Groupthink: The 15th Local weather Change Convention by The Heartland Institute can be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, on the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It’s going to function over 40 audio system, together with members of the SEPP Board of Administrators, Willie Quickly and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will tackle the query: “Is Local weather Science Scientific?”

Mathematician and Physicist Christopher Essex will obtain SEPP’s 2022 Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award. Different featured audio system embody Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Ross McKitrick, who uncovered the improper use of the Gauss-Markov Theorem in CO2 attribution research, Ian Plimer, Patrick Moore, Anthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, and lots of extra. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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Variety of the Week: 10% Paul Homewood stories that the BP Power Evaluation, 2023, exhibits that regardless of intensive fanfare over the previous a number of a long time wind and solar energy solely make up about 10% of world electrical energy technology and since 2010 there was a much bigger world-wide improve in fossil gasoline electrical energy technology than in photo voltaic and wind technology. Coal is # 1 and rising; Gasoline is # 2 and rising. TWTW confirmed these statistics with energdata.web and statista.com See hyperlink underneath Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?

Censorship

Censoring Inconvenient Truths

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Feb 10, 2023

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